With today’s numbers, the democrats aren’t in bad shape for the midterms. If the election were held today, which it isn’t. The numbers say the Dems gain Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in the senate with a 50-50 shot at North Carolina. The GOP has one state that’s 50-50 shot for them to gain, Georgia. With Biden’s approval rating as low as it is along with the falling Democratic congressional critters favorable ratings, that is amazing.

The House, the Republicans aren’t a shoe in to gain their 5 seats. Not yet anyway. They are the heavy favorite to do so, perhaps 70-30 in my book. No one else, no pundit, no political prognosticator, forecaster, would give the Dems a 30% chance of retaining the house. The big number is the competitive/switchable seats. Just 22 as of today, 15 Democratic held, 7 Republican held. These are from the 32 states that have completed their redistricting process. There are 18 more states to go. How they’ll draw their maps is anyone’s guess.

There’s something in play here that go beyond the numbers. There’s no way with Biden’s overall approval as low as it is, with the falling democratic controlled congress numbers falling just below the Republican congressional numbers. With over 60% of the people thinking this country is headed in the wrong direction, those numbers should forecast a red wave. Throw out the national numbers, go state by state for the senate and district by district for the house, what emerges is a total surprise. A democratic gain in the senate, perhaps a loss of 5-10 seats in the house. Something is in play that I can’t get my hands on or my mind around it yet.

I’m tempted to call it the Trump factor. But Trump’s favorable/unfavorable are basically even with Biden’s nationwide, all adults. Throw in inflation, rising prices, the major of Americans thinking Biden and the democrats have their priorities all messed up. That they aren’t paying attention to what most Americans view as this nation’s most important problem, what else can it be? Perhaps as we go along, the midterms get closer, the numbers may begin to merge, then again, maybe not. Time will tell.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/other/FavorabilityRatingsPoliticalLeaders.html

It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.