To go along with the post above.
Presidential Overall Approval rating November of his first term in office along with House seats lost during that president’s first midterm election
Biden 41% projected a 5-8 seat house loss as of 16 Jan 2022
2018 Trump 40% lost 44 seats
2010 Obama 43% lost 63 seats
2002 G.W. Bush 60% gained 8 seats
1994 Bill Clinton 41% lost 54 seats
1990 G.H.W. Bush 54% lost 8 seats
1982 Reagan 43% lost 26 seats
1978 Carter 49% lost 15 seats
For presidents whose overall approval rating was below 45%, the average loss for his first mid term was 47 seats. For president’s whose overall approval rating was above 45% a 5-seat loss.
Historically, Biden whose approval rating at 41% should be in store for a red wave of losing 47 seats give or take a few either way. He isn’t. At least not as today. Which begs the question, why isn’t he? Perhaps in the Trump era, historical wisdom, convention, averages can be tossed out the window. They don’t apply. It’s still early, perhaps as time goes by and if Biden approval remains this low, the projection of the loss of house seats will begin to climb. Then again, maybe not. In January of 2018 the projection was for a democratic gain of 30 plus seats. In January of 2010, the GOP was being projected to gain 30-40 seats. The blue and red wave elections were easily apparent in January of the year they happened. Not this year. Could the Trump factor limit the GOP gains in the house to 10 or less seats? Time will tell.
