Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Winning

To go along with the post above.

Presidential Overall Approval rating November of his first term in office along with House seats lost during that president’s first midterm election
Biden 41% projected a 5-8 seat house loss as of 16 Jan 2022
2018 Trump 40% lost 44 seats
2010 Obama 43% lost 63 seats
2002 G.W. Bush 60% gained 8 seats
1994 Bill Clinton 41% lost 54 seats
1990 G.H.W. Bush 54% lost 8 seats
1982 Reagan 43% lost 26 seats
1978 Carter 49% lost 15 seats

For presidents whose overall approval rating was below 45%, the average loss for his first mid term was 47 seats. For president’s whose overall approval rating was above 45% a 5-seat loss.

Historically, Biden whose approval rating at 41% should be in store for a red wave of losing 47 seats give or take a few either way. He isn’t. At least not as today. Which begs the question, why isn’t he? Perhaps in the Trump era, historical wisdom, convention, averages can be tossed out the window. They don’t apply. It’s still early, perhaps as time goes by and if Biden approval remains this low, the projection of the loss of house seats will begin to climb. Then again, maybe not. In January of 2018 the projection was for a democratic gain of 30 plus seats. In January of 2010, the GOP was being projected to gain 30-40 seats. The blue and red wave elections were easily apparent in January of the year they happened. Not this year. Could the Trump factor limit the GOP gains in the house to 10 or less seats? Time will tell.

I would feel a lot better if they just did something! I know, they are but they don't tell anybody even when they do. They prefer, I guess, to make promises in stead. I really hope you are right and they are not as bad off as everybody (including myself) seems to think.

The current promise seems to be tests. Tests for everybody! They are going to setup a site and then everybody can swarm that site and request their allotment of 4 'quick' tests. Apparently then people can just take a test to see if they are sick and one not be sick or anything to take the test. Oh, and they are free for everybody! Biden has, apparently, bought millions of tests - just for us! I think I heard the cost is over 1 billion dollars!

I continue to wish everybody luck.

My numbers are dynamic, they change constantly. Especially a lot of changes will occur as more states draw and approve their new congressional maps. Then a lot more changes will occur once candidates are nominated and chosen. Nothing stays the same, which is why I’m constantly doing updates. There are always unforeseen events that happen which throws out all the previous numbers. The numbers I provide are as of today, as if the election were today instead of 10 months into the future.

I took the wife to get her booster shot yesterday, I got mine a month ago. So stay safe.

This was in my inbox this AM, I know it would interest Greger, but I haven’t seen him around. It is the breakdown of political ideology.

U.S. Political Ideology Steady; Conservatives, Moderates Tie

https://news.gallup.com/poll/388988...nt=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication

Lot’s of information on political ideology by party and more. What caught my eye is now liberals make up 50% of the Democratic Party, but 25% of all America. That 25% is up from 17% in 1991. 74% of Republicans say they’re conservative vs. 36% of the country. Republicans have moved from 58% conservative in 1994 up to 74% today. When it comes to independents, 48% state they’re moderates compared to 37% of the country, the same 37% percentage as those who identify as democrats, but only 22% of the Republican Party.

Only 20% of independents say they’re liberal which could be one reason why the two party’s affiliation are even today. The first time since pre-great depression, pre-FDR, that has happened. The Democrats are moving more liberal, from 25% in 1994 to 50% today. 1994 party affiliation was 34% Democratic, 28% Republican, 33% independent. Today, Gallup lists party affiliation at year’s end at 28% for each major party, independents at 42%.

Since 1992 it has been the moderates which have declined from 43 to 37% today. Conservatives remained the same, at 36% while Liberals gained, 17% up to 25%. Which is contradictory to party affiliation. One would expect moderates going liberal moving out of the independent ranks to join the Democrats. But what has happened is the Democratic Party affiliation has dropped 6 points while those who identify as liberal has risen 8.

For a numbers guy, I’m in hog heaven.

I am, obviously, not very interested in the numbers. I take looks at them, etc. but, again obviously, you do a lot more than that. I do, however, find the terms interesting. The two main ones seem to be Liberal and Conservative. The problem with those two is that there are gradations in each which don't seem to have names. The third, "Moderate" seems to be a place one can be without declaring to be a Liberal or a Conservative.

Basically, I'm not too sure what an individual means when they say they are Liberal or Conservative. I kinda favor Moderate as its easy to move around a bit more. I have also noticed that if somebody is claiming to be a LIberal or a Conservative they are REALLY Liberal or Conservative. Even then its not always easy to know what they are actually claiming. I remember the good old days when one could pretty much tell what they meant - no longer.

I can only assume it will all shake out. These days, for instance, many Conservatives are also Trumpies which also means that their claim to Conservatism is a bit off as Trump can't actually be called a 'real' conservative. Trump himself is also kinda interesting in this as he was a dues paying Democrat forever, until he decided that he was a Republican. That switch has always been of interest for me.

For sure, I’ve always described myself as a traditional conservative. Which in terms of when I grew up basically meant socially liberal or keeping government out of a citizen’s private business and lives, being fiscally responsible. Examples of the former is letting a woman decide on whether to have an abortion or not. No problems with gays in the military or marriage. Let love decide, not government. On the later, only spend what you take in, let spending match revenues. I agree with the numerous degrees of both Conservatism and Liberalism. I’m certainly no social conservative, religious conservative, neo-conservative or any other type. But since Gallup has been asking the same question from at least 1991, they’ve been consistent, that gives one a context to go on. Centrist and moderate are also categories that are hard to classify as is independents. What I’ve found out is most moderates will support the Democrats on somethings, support the Republicans on others and oppose them depending on the issue.

Trump is in another category altogether. He’s switched parties 7 times, each time adopting the political philosophy of the party he happens to belong to at the time. I’d say he’s totally devoid of a personal political ideology. Trump gets classified as a conservative only because he’s a Republican now. When he was a Democrat, he was a liberal. I hear the word RINO a lot, the true RINO is Trump himself. Nixon gets classified as a conservative because he was a Republican. But what he did, Nixon was one of the more liberal presidents since FDR if he wasn’t the most liberal. Nixon opened relations with Red China, he established the EPA, OSHA, the endangered species act, supported affirmative action, funds for education, imposed wage and price controls and more.

On reflection I suspect the definitions for the current crop of titles still needs to be fixed. The current problem is that we have two sides and we really have no idea what to call them. The Republicans used to stand for something - not sure about that one anymore. They will, that being said, occasionally come up with something that makes send but, for the most part, they just don't. This is due to Trump and his insistence that those who would be Republican must publicly support lies which, I think, puts them in a really bad place. They have a serious problem because some actually believe, some almost believe, and some just don't. There are, its suggested, many who don't believe a Trump word muttered but will do ANYTHING to keep their jobs! They also tend to reject stuff like climate change, vaccinations, etc. In other words, for me, I find it very hard to support a Republican.

I have a good friend who claims to be a 'conservative' and has no use for Trump but still votes Republican. I have also noticed that he gets virtually all of his news from some very strange places. I, on the other hand, tend to stick with the old tried and true (cnn, networks, etc) as their main problem is what they cover, or not.

Then we have the Dems. I vote for them, these days, all the time. Not because I particularly like what they do but that they seem to have stuck with, for the most part, truth and the reality in which I live (which the other sides doesn't)

Given all of that I really have no idea if I am a conservative, liberal, independent, or whatever. I know folks who are claiming this, or that, but, for the most part they are not accurate. Not on purpose but the fact is that political leanings are just open for change. I just can't figure it all out.

Oh well, sh*t happens!

I grew up in the 1950’s, under who I think was the best president in my lifetime. Dwight Eisenhower. He was what folks today classify as a centrist, maybe a moderate, probably both a liberal in some things and a conservative in others. I tend to be much of the same mind IKE was back then. I find it fascinating that the more that comes out about IKE, all he did behind the scene, the higher he has risen among Historians ranking of the presidents. From 21st in 1962 up to 5th today. No one knew what political party IKE belonged to until 1952 when he decided to run as a Republican.

What a conservative or a liberal is or were has changed over time. A conservative during IKE certainly isn’t one today. The same for a liberal. There really wasn’t much of an ideology difference between the two parties back then. Each had their liberal and conservative wings. The Democrats the solid conservative south, the Republicans, their old Rockefeller liberal Northeast. It would be hard for the younger generations to believe that the Northeast once was basically solid Republican while the south, solid Democratic. It’s true though.

I think swing voter is the best way to describe me. I never supported either major party, always picking and choosing depending on who the candidates were and the situation at the time. As an old foggie, I don’t understand the politics of today. For most of my life, there wasn’t such a thing as a straight party line vote, there was always compromise and the game of give and take being played. Here’s a good article by Chris Matthews and the way it used to be.

Reagan and O’Neil, a political friendship worth remembering.

https://www.ajc.com/news/opinion/re...-worth-recalling/sjbyaGCQcropVcAwYk0GBI/

About 15 years ago I read David McCullough‘s biography of Harry Truman. I knew next to nothing about Truman before I read the book and the book and the story was simply fascinating. The amount of chit that was instantly laid on Truman‘s table was simply astonishing yet he managed to more or less fumble his way through it more or less successfully. Not to mention the absolute fiasco of how to integrate all of our soldiers back into society post World War II. So Truman has also risen in stature in my opinion.

When Eisenhower was toying with the idea of running for president Truman fully thought Eisenhower was a Democrat and desired to conscript him to run as the Democratic candidate. Eisenhower played coy until the very end when he announced that he was running as a Republican, and then just think about it….The interstate highway system? Does anyone think that something like that could ever happen again with our broken political system? Not only do “we” fight about minutia, we fight about virtually everything and nothing simultaneously.

I Like Ike too…

I was too young to personally experience Truman, to have any personal memories of him being born right after WWII. So, like you, most of what I know about Truman comes from books and documentaries. What few folks know about IKE is he had LBJ, then the Democratic senate majority leader over to the White House at least once a week or more to discuss how to get IKE’s agenda through a democratic controlled congress. A close working relationship between those two. JFK and LBJ both followed that up with a close working relationship with then senate minority leader, Republican Everett Dirksen. That type of close working relationship across the aisle wouldn’t be seen again until Reagan and Tip O’Neil and hasn’t been seen since. Both always got some or most of what they wanted while not getting all.

Then things, politics started going down hill to where we are at today. The polarization, the great divide and the super, mega, ultra-high partisanship. Today’s modern political era is totally disgusts me. I suppose that why most of my attention is on election forecasts and not much else political.