Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Gerrymandering

NC Supreme Court rules "Nope!" - Try again cheaters!

Back to 35 states as the North Carolina State Supreme Court ruled North Carolina’s newly redrawn map as extreme partisan gerrymandering. North Carolina’s legislature will have to draw a new one. The New Jersey Supreme Court threw out the lawsuit in that state for extreme gerrymandering while the Michigan Supreme Court dismissed the lawsuit against the independent commission’s new map. With North Carolina’s new map thrown out, the democrats increased their gerrymandering edge to 14 seats, 10 new Democratic districts, minus 4 Republican districts. We now have 292 newly drawn districts; 143 districts remain to be redrawn. Florida is the only big state remaining. Several medium sized states have yet to redraw their district maps, North Carolina, Ohio, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Missouri and Washington. The remaining are the smaller states which have less than 10 electoral votes.

Out of the 292 newly drawn districts, there are 27 competitive, switchable districts. Currently held by 18 Democrats and 9 Republicans. Safe seats as of 5 Feb 2022, 148 Democratic, 117 Republican.

The below listed states are in litigation over their new maps. These states in litigation will probably change the above listed safe and competitive seats depending on the outcome of the lawsuits. Listed also is who drew the maps being challenged by lawsuits.

Georgia – Republican legislature
Idaho – Republican legislature
Maryland – Democratic legislature
Nevada – Democratic legislature
New Mexico – Democratic legislature
Texas – Republican legislature

There’s been a pattern here that may explain why no lawsuit challenge was filed in Illinois and Oregon for their Democratic Legislatures extreme gerrymandering. North Carolina’s Republican legislature redistricting was struck down, North Carolina’s Supreme Court has more Democratic appointees 4-3 over Republican appointments. New Jersey’s case was dismissed by its Supreme Court which has more Democratic appointed judges than Republican. Alabama’s case was brought by the DOJ which will have to redraw their districts, Democratic AG Garland and Ohio’s Supreme Court made that state redraw their districts. Michigan’s Supreme court has more Republican judges which dismissed the lawsuit there. The trend is obvious. Judge’s ruling along partisan lines in whether to make a state redraw their districts or dismissing the challenge. Which leads me to New York with their Democratic legislatures overruling New York’s independent commission’s new map to draw their own map instead. Will New York’s new map be challenged, or will it be written off due to the prominence of Democratic Judges on the New York’s Supreme Court? Probably like Oregon and Illinois, no challenge.

Pesto, there are more Democrats residing in Oregon than Republicans. Dems changed Oregon in the 90s when a lot of Californias moved to Oregon. Same thing has happened in Arizona and what is happening to Texas: Liberal Californians are moving to other states.

The GOP has been losing the new registration war for decades now. It's not like the GOP has any platform or policy worth voting for besides "owning the Libs," anyway.

Oregon had 5 districts, 2 Democratic, 1 Republican, 2 competitive or switchable districts under the old map. Oregon gained a seat or representative giving them 6. New map has 4 democratic, 1 republican and 1 competitive. Redistricting added 2 democratic seats, shrunk competitive or switchable to 1, left the 1 district or seat to the Republicans.

This is based on the PVI, the partisan voting index of the districts. A PVI of D +6 are considered Democratic districts, a PVI of R +6 or more is considered a Republican voting district. A district with a PVI of 0 to +5 is classified as competitive or switchable. The new map.
District 1 PVI D +34 Safe Democratic
District 2 PVI R +28 Safe Republican
District 3 PVI D +43 Safe Democratic
District 4 PVI D +9 Non-competitive likely Democratic
District 5 PVI D +3 Competitive or switchable, lean Democratic
District 6 PVI D +9 Non-competitive likely Democratic

Oregon as a state has a PVI of D +6. Means Oregon isn’t considered a competitive state or a swing state, it’s a non-competitive likely Democratic state.

Oregon in creating 2 more Democratic districts, isn’t as bad as New York, Illinois or New Jersey. New Jersey went from 6 Democratic, 3 competitive, 3 Republican to 9 Democratic, 1 competitive, 2 Republican. New Jersey added 3 Democratic districts while eliminating 1 Republican and 2 competitive. Illinois lost a seat, dropping from 18 down to 17. Still Illinois went from 11 Democratic, 2 competitive, 5 Republican to 13 Democratic, 1 competitive, 3 Republican. Although Illinois lost one seat due to the 2020 census, they were able to add 2 Democratic seats, 11 to 13, eliminate 2 Republican seats, from 5 to 3, along with 1 competitive.

New York was the worst. Their state legislature ditched the independent commission in favor of the Democratic state legislature in drawing the new map. New York also lost a seat due to the 2020 census, dropping from 27 down to 26. Still New York was able go from 17 Democratic districts to 20 even though New York lost a representative. 3 Republican districts were eliminated, dropping them from 7 to 4 while 1 competitive district was eliminated dropping them from 3 to 2.

The courts have thrown out Ohio’s, North Carolina’s and Alabama’s redistricting plans. All done by Republican state legislatures which they should have. The courts haven’t as yet touched any redistricting plans or maps done by Democratic state legislatures. New Jersey, New York, Illinois being the worst. New Jersey lawsuit was dismissed by the New Jersey state supreme court, New York and Illinois weren’t challenged.

I think everyone who watches the redistricting is in shock that the Democrats are now way ahead in redistricting/gerrymandering battle. That was totally unexpected. It was expected it would be the Republicans winning the gerrymandering war, not the Democrats. Perhaps one can consider this payback for the Republican’s using the 2010 census to gerrymander the heck out of Texas, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio while the democrats were limited to gerrymandering Illinois and New York. But it is what it is. Neither party has a leg to stand on or to complain about gerrymandering since both do it whenever they can and make the most out of it. So, I say congratulations to the democrats for having the correct strategy to combat Republican gerrymandering this time around. I’m totally against gerrymandering, but it’s not going anywhere.

Ol' racist and insurrection-loving Mo Brooks says that redistricting needs to take ‘skin pigmentation’ out of congressional redistricting.

Of course a majority rule white racist would want that.


Two of the judges were appointed by Trump. Old Coot Mo doesn't know what he's talking about.

Several years ago, perhaps as many as 10 I started to do research into these majority minority districts, concentrating on majority black districts as to whether they helped or hurt the Democratic Party. Then it fell through the crack and I never really delved deep into it. Moving on to other things that seemed more important at the time.

There were 32 majority black districts at the time. Districts that were at least 51% black. Which ranged from number one on the list, Illinois 2nd district, 70% black down to the 32nd district, 50.3% black, Georgia’s 2nd. Of course, these 32 majority black districts guaranteed a Democratic congressman which left 403 to be decided by a much less black population and less Democratic Party orientated. More white voter orientated along with being more Republican leaning. Plus or minus, I never finished the researched. Georgia had 5 of these and for most of the 2010’s Georgia’s congressional delegation was made of 9 white republicans, 5 black democrats. None of Georgia’s 14 districts was competitive until 2018 when Lucy McBath won GA-6 which by that time had become majority black with blacks moving out of Atlanta into the Northern suburbs. Today we have 8 white Republicans and 6 black democrats.

The new map Georgia drew went back to the 5 majority black districts with 9 majority white districts. The outcome of all 14 districts are pre-ordained much like they were right after the 2010 census. The federal courts dictated Georgia to place as many blacks as possible into their own districts, which Georgia complied. My point here is since Georgia is roughly 50-50 between Democrats and Republicans today if the 2020 presidential election is a proper indication. Without the majority black districts chances are our congressional delegation would be 7-7 instead of 9-5 Republican.

Would eliminating black majority districts help or hurt the Democratic Party. Here in Georgia, it would help. Packing as many blacks as possible into their own majority districts certainly helps the Republicans. I don’t know about other states. I still have a ton of research to do on this subject if I ever decide to return to it. The racial breakdown for Georgia is roughly 34% balck, 52% white, 6% Hispanic, 4% Asian.

If you wanna know why this Republican Party cannot be saved, don’t listen to a crazy like Marjorie Taylor Greene, listen to cowards like Marco Rubio, Raphael Cruz and Lindsey Graham.

The Republican Party as political entity promoting a coherent set of principles was transformed fully into a cult of personality organized around a would-be autocrat, Feb. 4, 2022 when they censored Liz Cheney (R-WY) and Adam Kinzinger (R-OH) for being on the committee to investigate the demise of democracy and installing a failed, incompetent autocrat in perpetuity.

Further detaching themselves from reality, Republicans declared that the Jan. 6, 2021, the Capitol insurrection constituted 'legitimate political discourse."

...and some Liberals say:

I’ve been hot on the redistricting of the House. I’ve seen gerrymandering eliminate competitive districts up the ying yang as the process proceeds. Here’s an article with the title, “'Taking the Voters Out of the Equation': How the Parties Are Killing Competition” Which in my opinion is exactly what is happening. From the article.

“While the exact size of the battlefield is still emerging, the sharp decline of competition for House seats is the latest worrying sign of dysfunction in the U.S. political system, which is already struggling with a scourge of misinformation and rising distrust in elections. Lack of competition in general elections can widen the ideological gulf between the parties, leading to hardened stalemates on legislation and voters’ alienation from the political process.”

https://www.yahoo.com/news/taking-voters-equation-parties-killing-155700496.html

jgw mention awhile go about a lot of people who think it’s their government, not ours. About little to no faith in their government. What we have seen in the last 20 or so years is both major parties when they can eliminate the voter from the equation. They’re choosing their voters; the voters aren’t choosing their representatives. So, it is their government, not ours, not mine, theirs. We voters are just pawns on the huge political chessboard being moved around at the whims of both major parties wants.

What we HAVE NOT SEEN from the Democrats is the attempted insurrection to steal an election to install an autocrat in perpetuity. THAT has been been the GOP alone.

When the televised 01/06 TV hearings begin, it is my hope that middle-america wakes up to what the GOP is/has been up to.

Tennessee makes 36 states that has completed redistricting including the 6 states which have one, lone representative. The democrats maintain their gerrymandering advantage of 14 seats, 11 new Democratic districts, minus 3 Republican districts. We now have 301 newly drawn districts; 134 districts remain to be redrawn. Florida is the only big state remaining. Several medium sized states have yet to redraw their district maps, North Carolina, Ohio, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Missouri and Washington. The remaining are the smaller states which have less than 10 electoral votes.

Out of the 301 newly drawn districts, there are 27 competitive, switchable districts. Currently held by 18 Democrats and 9 Republicans. Safe seats as of 6 Feb 2022, 148 Democratic, 126 Republican.

The below listed states are in litigation over their new maps. These states in litigation will probably change the above listed safe and competitive seats depending on the outcome of the lawsuits. Listed also are who drew the maps being challenged by lawsuits.

Georgia – Republican legislature
Idaho – Republican legislature
Maryland – Democratic legislature
Nevada – Democratic legislature
New Mexico – Democratic legislature
Texas – Republican legislature