Senate and House update 22 Jan 2022

Senate +1-3 equals lean, but within the MOE. These states are very competitive with one party or candidate having a slight advantage. +4-6 outside the MOE, equals likely but still competitive. +7 and above, those states aren’t listed. They’re considered solid or safe for the party that currently holds them.

Changes -NH, D Hassan dropped from the list, placed into the safe D category. GA D Warnock down from 3 to 2, PA Open Democratic candidate down from 2 to 1.

Arizona Kelly D – Kelly +2 Democratic hold R 50 D 50
Florida Rubio R – Rubio +6 Republican hold R 50 D 50
Georgia Warnock D – Warnock +2 Democratic hold R 50 D 50
Nevada Cortez Masto D – Cortez Masto +1 Democratic hold R 50 D 50
North Carolina Burr R – Burr is retiring, open seat. Republican candidate +1 Republican hold. R 50 D 50
Ohio – Portman R – Portman is retiring, open seat. Republican candidate +3 Republican hold. R 50 D 50
Pennsylvania Toomey R – Toomey is retiring, open seat. Democratic candidate +1 Democratic gain R 49 D 51
Wisconsin Johnson R – Democratic candidate +1 Democratic gain R 48 D 52

Missouri R Blunt, Vermont, D Leahy are retiring, these open seats may make my watch list if they become competitive later. As it stands now, the Democrats have a net gain of 2 seats leaving them in control 52-48.

House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 222 Democrats, 213 Republicans. The GOP needs a net gain of 5 seats to take control of the House. As of 22 Jan 2022, 33 states have completed their redistricting which includes the 6 states with one lone Representative. 274 districts out of the 435 are completed leaving 161 to go. There’re still are two big states left, New York and Florida. Several medium states which include Ohio, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Missouri and Washington. The remaining are the smaller states which have less than 10 electoral votes.

Out of the 274 newly drawn districts, there are 24 competitive, switchable districts. Currently held by 16 Democrats and 8 Republicans. Safe seats as of 21 Jan 2022, 127 Democratic, 123 Republican. Probable net gain using only the redrawn districts is a Republican gain of 4-6 seats. When one takes the generic congressional ballot into consideration. The Republican congressional candidates have increased their lead to 3 points, 44-41. Then take the remaining states to be redistricted going by their currently drawn districts, a gain of 7-10 seats for the Republicans is the most likely. Barely enough for the Republicans to regain control of the house. Certainly, no red wave. States in litigation that will probably change the above listed safe and competitive seats depending on the outcome of the lawsuits are listed below. I’ve also listed whether a political party gained or didn’t gain on the redistricting, old maps vs. new maps.
Alabama – Neither party gained
Georgia – Neither party gained
Maryland – Neither party gained
Michigan -Neither party gained
Nevada – Democrats gained
New Jersey – Democrats gained
North Carolina – Republicans gained
Texas – Neither party gained

It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.