Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Winning

Senate and House update 22 Jan 2022

Senate +1-3 equals lean, but within the MOE. These states are very competitive with one party or candidate having a slight advantage. +4-6 outside the MOE, equals likely but still competitive. +7 and above, those states aren’t listed. They’re considered solid or safe for the party that currently holds them.

Changes -NH, D Hassan dropped from the list, placed into the safe D category. GA D Warnock down from 3 to 2, PA Open Democratic candidate down from 2 to 1.

Arizona Kelly D – Kelly +2 Democratic hold R 50 D 50
Florida Rubio R – Rubio +6 Republican hold R 50 D 50
Georgia Warnock D – Warnock +2 Democratic hold R 50 D 50
Nevada Cortez Masto D – Cortez Masto +1 Democratic hold R 50 D 50
North Carolina Burr R – Burr is retiring, open seat. Republican candidate +1 Republican hold. R 50 D 50
Ohio – Portman R – Portman is retiring, open seat. Republican candidate +3 Republican hold. R 50 D 50
Pennsylvania Toomey R – Toomey is retiring, open seat. Democratic candidate +1 Democratic gain R 49 D 51
Wisconsin Johnson R – Democratic candidate +1 Democratic gain R 48 D 52

Missouri R Blunt, Vermont, D Leahy are retiring, these open seats may make my watch list if they become competitive later. As it stands now, the Democrats have a net gain of 2 seats leaving them in control 52-48.

House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 222 Democrats, 213 Republicans. The GOP needs a net gain of 5 seats to take control of the House. As of 22 Jan 2022, 33 states have completed their redistricting which includes the 6 states with one lone Representative. 274 districts out of the 435 are completed leaving 161 to go. There’re still are two big states left, New York and Florida. Several medium states which include Ohio, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Missouri and Washington. The remaining are the smaller states which have less than 10 electoral votes.

Out of the 274 newly drawn districts, there are 24 competitive, switchable districts. Currently held by 16 Democrats and 8 Republicans. Safe seats as of 21 Jan 2022, 127 Democratic, 123 Republican. Probable net gain using only the redrawn districts is a Republican gain of 4-6 seats. When one takes the generic congressional ballot into consideration. The Republican congressional candidates have increased their lead to 3 points, 44-41. Then take the remaining states to be redistricted going by their currently drawn districts, a gain of 7-10 seats for the Republicans is the most likely. Barely enough for the Republicans to regain control of the house. Certainly, no red wave. States in litigation that will probably change the above listed safe and competitive seats depending on the outcome of the lawsuits are listed below. I’ve also listed whether a political party gained or didn’t gain on the redistricting, old maps vs. new maps.
Alabama – Neither party gained
Georgia – Neither party gained
Maryland – Neither party gained
Michigan -Neither party gained
Nevada – Democrats gained
New Jersey – Democrats gained
North Carolina – Republicans gained
Texas – Neither party gained

The insanity has become genetic.

Your polling apologies do not change the realities that Republicans and in particular the Trumpists have nothing in mind but to change America into a fascist state. I have only to point to an increasing number of Trumpists who not only believe but are dedicated to sending political opponents to jail or prison based simply on the predicate these people opposed, persecuted, and harassed Trump and in their belief, they were complicit in tarnishing Trump's name and character. They have made it clear they would use the full force of their office and of the government to implement their, in my words, reign of terror.

The belief by Democrats that Republicans are trying to destroy America is in fact based on the reality of what they say. It is not as you would like to believe, based on some polling, a result of partisan differences.

The alarm is sounding. We are in danger of losing our Democracy ... and perhaps we deserve it .... for probably a number of reasons but mostly I suspect because of denial of reality.

Polling only shows what America is believing, feeling, thinking etc on that particular day. One may either like the results or not. I’m actually surprise with the very low approval numbers Biden has, with the very low favorable numbers of the Democratic controlled congress has, with as many people who believe this country is headed in the wrong direction today, that the Democrats are holding their own. Past history shows that shouldn’t be. Hence my conclusion there is something else in play here that I can’t get my hands on or my mind around. That might be the Trump factor, or it might not.

The economy has been the top issue for 9 out of the last 10 elections. I don’t see that changing this time around. That’s just the way it is. In today’s modern political era, a relatively new political era, you have a third of the nation going to vote Republican, a third going to vote democratic, basically because of today’s polarization and party loyalty. Then a third who the heck knows how they’ll vote. It’s the economy that plays most with this latter third. Most of this latter third fall into the swing voter category, independents who aren’t political junkies and who don’t pay much if any attention to politics until an election nears. It’s simple, if they’re doing better today or on election day than they were last election, they’ll vote for the party in power. If they’re worst off, they vote for the party out of power. It’s been this way going back to Hoover vs. FDR.

Truman was a pretty good president. One of the really great things he did was to institute the Hoover Commission (Commission on Organization of the Executive Branch of the Government) This was run by Herbert Hoover who he appointed to do the job. This commission was responsible for no fewer than 8 major changes in government. They, basically, went through the entire bureaucracy of the United States making sure it was functional. I have hammered on this one as I believe that we should do it again as soon as possible! Right now the biggest employer in the nation has not had a real exam for a very, very long time and its really time to do it again!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hoover_Commission
https://scholarship.law.marquette.e...edir=1&article=3331&context=mulr
https://www.archives.gov/research/guide-fed-records/groups/264.html

I agree jgw. I noticed Truman appointed the former Republican president Hoover. That’s something you’d never see today. This brings back memories of Eisenhower having the then Democratic Senate Majority Leader, LBJ over to the White House once a week to discuss how best to get IKE’s agenda through congress. Memories of JFK and LBJ as president, working closely with then Senate Minority Leader Everett Dirksen. Then a drought until Reagan and Democratic Speaker Tip O’Neal. That as far as I can remember the last time a president would work closely across the aisle with the congressional leader of the other party.

Memories aside, it’s high past time for another Hoover Commission.

Then Don't Give an Inch Newt Gingrich came along and, pretty much, shut all of that down. What the Republicans need to do, to fix it is to have a leader who puts an end to it and not a one of them has the spine for the job. Its a shame. When you have both sides willing to talk, and settle on that which they can live with stuff gets done. We have now reached a point where the Republicans are not only not giving an inch but have, pretty much, shut down the Congress of the United States. The only times something happens its because, if they didn't, they would shut down government and then they would have to own it.

If you are interested in numbers this one might be of interest:
https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/statistics

This one too is of interest: https://www.congress.gov/

Apparently you will never get it.

I understand the mathematics of polling, so let me show you the difference of which I type. If I were a candidate and my polling numbers were lower than my opponents, I would not like them, however, if the polling numbers show people like the color red more then they like the color blue (my color fav), well it is what it is or I am apolitical about the numbers. Do you see the difference???

I don't care that the % of Republicans and Democrats believe the other party is trying to destroy America is the same. The numbers are what they are. What concerns me is why do they believe it. Your conclusion is, since the numbers are equal, you ascribe it to simply partisan hyperbole. In normal times I would probably agree, but we don't reside in normal times. We have an ex-occupant of the WH who in concert with his loyal conspirators attempted to overthrow a duly elected government.

Now when all of the evidence is revealed, which has become an almost daily deluge, it is apparent there was a large scale conspiracy encompassing a number of elements of the Republican Party. I see THE BASE overrunning the Capitol and stopping the perfunctory electoral count. I see states presenting fake electors to the Senate. I see advisors, so close to Trump, they rub elbows, conspiring to subvert the electoral count. So I say I have legitimate concerns that the Republican Party is indeed trying to destroy America. You will note all of these concerns are demonstrable true and valid and factual.

So my question to you has always been to present Republican fears of what Democrats are doing to destroy America. Let's put those fears on a balance and see which belief is valid. Now should you bring yourself to present a list of paranoid delusions as the basis of Republican fears of Democrats, consider the validity of those delusions.

Do you still maintain Republicans are not trying to destroy America????

I’ve never believed or thought one party stood for good and the other for evil. Although with Trump around, one party may be less evil than the other. What I see is both parties trying to get their candidates elected by whichever shenanigans work.

I never been a party loyalist and never will be. What I gain mostly from you is that you don’t care about what all of America thinks, just yourself. Which is okay. Approximately 55% of the electorate think the same today. For most things outside of getting my election forecasts right, I’m pretty much ambivalent. I keep track of how the people feel, think etc. in how that will affect the midterms today. After the midterms are over, the presidential in 2024 takes priority. I personally don’t give a darn how Republicans and Democrats feel or look at things or view each other. That’s up to them, I have no control over that, I don’t worry about things I can’t control or do anything about or help. Now both major party’s base is too small to elect anyone. Independents, they decide most elections. I follow them closely while paying little or no attention to the bases of the two parties. I already know how they’ll vote. Independents now are all over the place.

I have an interesting article for you. The title: America Depends on the Mushy Middle, it answers the question of how someone, independents in particular could vote for Obama twice, then vote for Trump. From the article.

But the political label long embraced by a plurality of Americans is not D or R but I – Independent. This is the mushy middle that helped elect Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 and then delivered the White House to Trump. (Polls, like the Gallup survey mentioned above, often bulk up two-party numbers by assigning to-and-fro “leaners” to one side or the other.)

“How could someone support Obama and Trump?

It’s easy if you’re not a yellow dog ideologue. These voters do not see politics as apocalyptic conflict. They make their best estimate of the country’s direction, look at the choices they’re given, and decide – often while holding their noses.

They are the open-minded center that is fundamental to a functioning democracy. These voters are willing to consider a wide range of factors, not just the party line, before pulling the lever. In truth, many of them could not provide a thorough and consistent analysis for their side-switching. It is more a gut feeling that expresses the wisdom of the crowd. Unlike most Republicans, they gave Biden a chance. Unlike most Democrats, they are willing to admit that he is not providing the leadership they want.”

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/a...;mc_cid=16a30bce43&mc_eid=3b85baf05a

It’s all quite simple.

There’s been a couple of big changes in the senate as new polls became available. Idaho has joined the lawsuits/litigation against its new map.

Senate and House update 27 Jan 2022

Senate +1-3 equals lean, but within the MOE. These states are very competitive with one party or candidate having a slight advantage. +4-6 outside the MOE, equals likely but still competitive. +7 and above, those states aren’t listed. They’re considered solid or safe for the party that currently holds them.

Changes -NH, D Hassan dropped from the list, placed into the safe D category. GA D Warnock down from +2 to Republican candidate +1, PA Open Democratic candidate down from 2 to 1.

Arizona Kelly D – Kelly +2 Democratic hold R 50 D 50
Florida Rubio R – Rubio +6 Republican hold R 50 D 50
Georgia Warnock D – Republican candidate +1 Republican gain R 51 D 49
Nevada Cortez Masto D – Cortez Masto +1 Democratic hold R 51 D 49
North Carolina Burr R – Burr is retiring, open seat. Republican candidate +1 Republican hold. R 51 D 49
Ohio – Portman R – Portman is retiring, open seat. Republican candidate +3 Republican hold. R 51 D 49
Pennsylvania Toomey R – Toomey is retiring, open seat. Democratic candidate +1 Democratic gain R 50 D 50
Wisconsin Johnson R – Democratic candidate +1 Democratic gain R 49 D 51

Missouri R Blunt, Vermont, D Leahy are retiring, these open seats may make my watch list if they become competitive later. As it stands now, the Democrats have a net gain of 1 seat leaving them in control 51-49.

House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 222 Democrats, 213 Republicans. The GOP needs a net gain of 5 seats to take control of the House. As of 27 Jan 2022, 34 states have completed their redistricting including the 6 states with one lone Representative. 278 districts out of the 435 are completed leaving 157 to go. There’re still are two big states left, New York and Florida. Several medium states which include Ohio, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Missouri and Washington. The remaining are the smaller states which have less than 10 electoral votes.

Out of the 278 newly drawn districts, there are 25 competitive, switchable districts. Currently held by 17 Democrats and 8 Republicans. Safe seats as of 26 Jan 2022, 128 Democratic, 125 Republican. Probable net gain using only the redrawn districts is a Republican gain of 4-6 seats. When one takes the generic congressional ballot into consideration. The Republican congressional candidates have a 2-point advantage, 44-42. Then take the remaining states to be redistricted going by their currently drawn districts, a gain of between 7-10 seats for the Republicans is the most likely. Barely enough for the Republicans to regain control of the house. Certainly, no red wave. States in litigation that will probably change the above listed safe and competitive seats depending on the outcome of the lawsuits are listed below. I’ve also listed whether a political party gained or didn’t gain on the redistricting, old maps vs. new maps.

Georgia – Neither party gained
Idaho – Neither party gained
Maryland – Neither party gained
Michigan -Neither party gained
Nevada – Democrats gained
New Jersey – Democrats gained
North Carolina – Republicans gained
Texas – Neither party gained

So should I conclude that if a minority of Americans want to overthrow a duly elected government ... well .... I should allow them to do that .... because I should care what other Americans think. Is that your position???? Sounds awfully like Tucker Carlson. Apparently you care more about polls than what a poll means.

My God man ... are you blind???? What you're doing may be irrelevant at election time. Should a Democrat win an election where Republicans think a Republican should have won ... guess what .... a Republican really won, because they will toss out the votes they don't like.

So what is the point of watching polls when Democracy is lost .... o ... but you were watching the polls. I guarantee Republicans don't give a crap about polls ... because the fix is in.