Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Winning

It would seem that we are entering interesting times as well as, hopefully, preparing for elections. The angry doctor, from Washington has said that covid will have cooled down by the end of April due to Vaccinations and the numbers of folks getting, and surviving Covid (the theory is that between vaccinations and covid survivors there will be a lot fewer available victims for Covid to have at). In addition to that the bi-partisan infrastructure bill is starting to warm up and distribute its rewards as well. Then, on top all of that the Dems AND Biden are starting to actually familiarize everybody with what they have done, the state of the economy, etc.

Basically there is a pile of Democratic good warming up which could give the Dems a real boost. The problem there is, of course, their ongoing problem of lack of messages which they can all subscribe to so that they speak with one voice as well. This would mean that the Democratic Progressives would have to temper their wishful thinking until after the election. Basically the Dems have to understand that there is a middle group of voters that are not members of any political party and, I think, that group holds more voters than either party and, probably, more voters that the total memberships of both parties!

I suspect, if things keep moving along, that Biden's numbers should start moving up as the Dems actually show a little intelligence and pay attention to business instead of each other. It would also be a good thing, I think, if the Dems actually started to go after the Republican anti-reality folks with facts and figures.

The main problem remains and it goes like; "The Democratic party has the capacity to screw it all up!" (if you google that you will get something like 16 million replies)

Jgw, I think you’re right on. According to Gallup, independents make up 42% of the electorate. They have little to no political ideology and no loyalty to either major party. Perhaps this article can explain a lot. The title: America Depends on the Mushy Middle.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/a...;mc_cid=16a30bce43&mc_eid=3b85baf05a

Among many items in the article is that they explain why this mushy middle can vote for Obama twice and then for Trump. There’s much more in it. It’s a short read, but full of information.

I would add my own observation. So far, the Democrats are holding their own when they shouldn’t be. Considering Biden overall approval is at 40%, the Democratic controlled congress approval is below 30%, well over 60% of all Americans view this country is headed in the wrong direction or on the wrong track. These numbers should be showing a huge red wave in November. But when one goes district by district in the house, as of today you’re looking at a 7-10 seat GOP gain. Not 30-50 seats one would expect with approval numbers as low as Biden’s and the Democratic controlled congress are along with the wrong track numbers. The same in the senate, the democrats might pick up a seat or two, but going by the above approval numbers, the Democrats should be losing 5-8 seats. What’s going on? What ever it is, it has me stumped.

There’s nothing in history that shows these bad numbers, approval, wrong track etc. and yet minimum or no loses. Then again, there was nothing in history that showed a candidate winning the presidency by 7 million plus votes and losing 13 house seats along with 2 state legislatures and a governorship either. These things don’t happen. Never have. That is until 2020 and today. Perhaps history doesn’t apply anymore in today’s modern political era of polarization, the great divide and the super, mega, ultra-high partisanship.

Regardless of the reason/s, I think you’re correct.

I think the real problem is that many have lost faith in our government. I also think that the problem is in "our government". With all the hate and sides and winning and losing, etc. I believe that our government has turned into "THEIR government". Voters have all taken sides and seem to have forgotten that "OUR GOVERNMENT" means we are responsible for what we have. Biden hasn't helped with one mess after another coupled with constant promises of this and that that may, or may not, happen. Now add on the constant whining about "their government" from folks like Fox News and we get what we have right now. These days its all those others who are responsible for what we have rather than the voters. The voters are no longer voters but members of one of the sides instead. Its really very very strange. Oh, the regular news channels have taken on going beatings.

I think the middle just wants a gov that functions well and does its job. Neither side, as far as I can tell, have left anybody with that feeling. Without it we are loose and getting buffered by the winds of incompetence, baloney and disaster.

We seem to have two sides and, if you are not a member of one of the sides/parties then what you have to deal with is one side who actually has problems with much of reality and the other side which seems more interested in hammering each other. I am also sure that neither side sees it that way. I also suspect that it may have a lot to do with who is responsible for what and nobody seems to have raised their hands on that one so far. Hopefully the Dems are going to start tooting their own horn, stop promising ANYTHING! and start doing things and then announcing what they have done. I think that's starting but we will see if they can overcome the public internal bickering and start speaking with one voice about what they have done so far that works and is good.

I am, incidentally, very good at wishful thinking (in case you haven't noticed)

Once again, I’ll agree jgw. Yes, it seems most Americans view the situation as their government and not ours. 3/4ths of all Americans don’t trust their government. You can scan the graphs and come to your own conclusions.

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/05/17/public-trust-in-government-1958-2021/

I believe all these personal political attack ads which began in earnest in the 1990’s has a lot to do with it. After awhile the party faithful will begin to believe the other party and its members are the evilest scumbags on the face of this earth. Independents since they get it from both sides believe both parties are evil. They have no one or party they trust in government in which the two major political parties, their candidates and elected officials make up the government. It becomes permanently their government with independents with no trust in their government be it Republican or Democratic party controlled.

Here's a SWAG, when both parties had their conservative and liberal wings, when party ideology wasn’t as stark today, trust was high among all Americans. It was more of an American agenda put forth than a Republican or Democratic, a conservative or liberal agenda as is the case today. I’m positive that both parties, both ideologies think they’re presenting an American agenda, but, it’s their own agenda which leaves out 2/3rds of America. This may be all wet, it’s just a SWAG.

An interesting aspect of this, is trust was the highest when around 80% of all Americans identified with the two major parties when both parties had their liberal, moderate and conservative wings. Today, only around 55% of all Americans identify themselves with the two major parties, the parties are split into conservative and liberal ideologies, trust in government is very low. Are these related. I don’t know, just something that struck my fancy.

History never applies to polling. Polls are simply a set of numbers and without context for each snapshot they are meaningless. You appear to believe the historical set of numbers is the context and you can thus derive conclusions from that set. Otherwise you would not have typed " These things don’t happen" and "There’s nothing in history ... ".

Polling numbers are like coin tosses .... neither has a memory and there is no such thing as "history", only a set of data points.

Analyzing polling results without context is an exercise in futility.


I believe a legitimate, viable argument can be made for the following: Gingrich gave a speech in 1977 which laid the foundations for the zero sum political game played by modern Republicans. In the ensuing years Fox News became the propaganda arm for "never compromise" Republicans. The goal was to dissemble government and at the same time ensconce themselves as the only power in Washington, in order to impose their brand of laws, which in turn can be viewed as a modern extension of CRT, extending not just non-whites, but also to people who do not agree with their policies. Bannon is the spokesperson and modern descendant of destruction of government. The path is to denigrate and marginalize government, bring it down, and replace with only those selective laws which empower their philosophy.

Like adding a tincture to water and watching the diffusion gradually saturate the whole, the poison of distrusting government has seeped into the mainstream. I suspect there is a difference in motivations for people to distrust government. For conservatives who have always been skeptical of government, they possess an inherent distrust which has been codified and mutated by modern dissemblers, while I suspect liberals distrust government because of it's failures to govern.

Complex issues can not be analyzed by reciting polling numbers as if they were conclusions.

Throw them out if you like, Your prerogative. but polling has proved accurate when compared with the election result. Not infallible, but in the ballpark. Considering most polls have an MOE (Margin of Error) of plus or minus 3 points.

Historical polling for United States presidential elections

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_polling_for_United_States_presidential_elections

When polls show things a partisan doesn’t like, they always seem to disparage the poll. You want to gauge how America is feeling or how they view certain situations, issues, people and candidates. Polls give you a good indication.

Be my guest, throw them out. Trumpers called them fake for both the 2018 and 2020 elections. They’re highly partisan also who don’t or can’t take bad news. I’ll continue to follow them because they give me, us, an indication and perspective where we stand today. If you think they’re nothing but hogwash, disregard them and me. I said enough.

LOL .... where did I type that?????

again ... I am not a partusan .... I am not a democrat ... I am a long time independent liberal. Polls are what they are.

I do not care that 30% of D's and R's think the other side is destroying America. I do care what the underlying reasons are. You apparently think the numbers of a polls tell the whole story i.e. hyperbolic partisanship. My claim is your interpretation is not only inaccurate but not true nor valid. My claim is the Republican Party is trying to destroy America and the proof of my claim is .... geez .... read the daily papers .... over and again are stories of Republicans saying they will bring guns to polling stations, stop voting, overturn elections, etc etc and you seem to think it's not true, it doesn't mean anything, etc etc. You couldn't imagine my warnings about Trump trying to thwart the election could have any validity and yet we are learning it was worse than I imagined.

And yet do not see the forest because .... my guess ... you have blinders on

No where in all of that is a call to throw out the polls or even to disparage the polls .... it is a call for you to open your mind and eyes to the reality of what Republicans are doing in America as I type.

Seems like a bit of talking past-ism involved in this thread. I see Perotista’s poll watching and analysis as just that, reporting on polling, which does have a connection to elections. What the data show, however, has really nothing to do with judging what is is right, or best for the country.

The use of the word partisan implies ‘political party’, or political lean. What it glosses over is that many people favor certain ethics and principles, and hope to see them prevail in our government and society, which may align more with the direction of one of the parties. Voting for candidates of that party does not necessarily mean they are ‘partisan’. I would call this group thinking independents.

It seems like far more people make their decisions based on team/tribal loyalty, which is clearly ‘partisan’.

I think there is yet another set of people who are mostly influenced by marketing - these would call themselves independents, but are actually gullible marks for con men. This is today a large group. The swings we see in the polls show when the cons are working and when they are not.

At least someone gets it. These polls reflect what all American’s are thinking or feeling as a percentage of the whole. The polls have nothing to do with right or wrong, just how they might vote come election day. Simply put most Americans think Biden isn’t doing the job he was elected to do, that the country is headed in the wrong direction and the Democratic controlled congress along with Biden have the wrong priorities. Now this could change tomorrow, next week, next month or in six months or not change at all until the midterms are over.

Having done election forecasts for a few decades, you can tell what will happen by a president’s approval rating, the direction of the country and how folks view each party’s congressional delegation. This has worked since Bill Clinton took office, with the lone exception of G.H.W. Bush in 1990, you can take this back to LBJ vs. Goldwater. That’s a long history.

This time around with Biden sitting at 40%, 65% of Americans viewing the country on the wrong track, headed in the wrong direction along with congressional democrats taking a nose dive, with these numbers the Republicans should be riding a red wave in the house, 40 or more seats gained along with gain 5 or so senate seats. There’s no indication that will happen. Just the reverse. The Democrats might gain one or two seats in the senate, lose 5-10 seats in the house. I never seen the like which means something else is happening that I have no idea or indication of what it is. All I can do is guess.

I’d like to point out that no presidential candidate who won the popular vote via the White House lost house seats since 1884. Biden won the popular vote by 7 plus million votes and yet lost 13 house seats. In 1884, the only other time this has happened in our history, Glover Cleveland won the popular vote by a mere 58,000 and lost 8 house seats. Big difference between 7 million plus and 58,000 votes.

2020 was a unique election. I’d say it wasn’t a vote for Biden nor the Democrats as it was a vote against Trump. The GOP did great down ballot, just not at the presidential level. 2022 is shaping up as another unique election. Perhaps, just a SWAG, people are disappointed in Biden and the Democratic controlled congress, most Americans. But it also seems they’re reluctant to vote for Trump back candidates.

That’s the best I can think of. No numbers to back that up, just a gut feeling.