At least someone gets it. These polls reflect what all American’s are thinking or feeling as a percentage of the whole. The polls have nothing to do with right or wrong, just how they might vote come election day. Simply put most Americans think Biden isn’t doing the job he was elected to do, that the country is headed in the wrong direction and the Democratic controlled congress along with Biden have the wrong priorities. Now this could change tomorrow, next week, next month or in six months or not change at all until the midterms are over.
Having done election forecasts for a few decades, you can tell what will happen by a president’s approval rating, the direction of the country and how folks view each party’s congressional delegation. This has worked since Bill Clinton took office, with the lone exception of G.H.W. Bush in 1990, you can take this back to LBJ vs. Goldwater. That’s a long history.
This time around with Biden sitting at 40%, 65% of Americans viewing the country on the wrong track, headed in the wrong direction along with congressional democrats taking a nose dive, with these numbers the Republicans should be riding a red wave in the house, 40 or more seats gained along with gain 5 or so senate seats. There’s no indication that will happen. Just the reverse. The Democrats might gain one or two seats in the senate, lose 5-10 seats in the house. I never seen the like which means something else is happening that I have no idea or indication of what it is. All I can do is guess.
I’d like to point out that no presidential candidate who won the popular vote via the White House lost house seats since 1884. Biden won the popular vote by 7 plus million votes and yet lost 13 house seats. In 1884, the only other time this has happened in our history, Glover Cleveland won the popular vote by a mere 58,000 and lost 8 house seats. Big difference between 7 million plus and 58,000 votes.
2020 was a unique election. I’d say it wasn’t a vote for Biden nor the Democrats as it was a vote against Trump. The GOP did great down ballot, just not at the presidential level. 2022 is shaping up as another unique election. Perhaps, just a SWAG, people are disappointed in Biden and the Democratic controlled congress, most Americans. But it also seems they’re reluctant to vote for Trump back candidates.
That’s the best I can think of. No numbers to back that up, just a gut feeling.
