Perhaps it time to explain myself. I tend to look at politics through both a forecaster’s and a political strategist’s eye. I’ll use RCP for my figures.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.htmlI see Biden’s overall approval rating at 41%. History being a guide, that usually means a loss of 30-40 house seats along with 5 senate seats in the next election. I want to know why and the reasons for the low approval rating and what can be done about it from a political strategist point of view. In other words, to help Biden.
Other issues - is the overall approval rating the only rating Biden is low or does it carry to many other issues. Biden’s approver on the economy 38%, Immigration 33%, foreign policy 37%, COVID 44%, Climate change 39%, Health Care 40%. Is the country headed in the right or wrong direction, 27% right direction, 65% wrong direction? Biden’s low approval is across the board on many different issues. This means general dissatisfaction with the Biden’s presidency on almost every issue.
Next which issues does the public think is the most important issue facing this country today.
1. Economy, rising prices, jobs 28%
2. COVID 17%
3. Crime 13%
4. Climate Change 11%
5. Immigration 10%
All other issues are in single digits. Knowing the Economy has been the most important issue in how the public decides how they will vote in 9 of the last 10 elections. That is the place where Biden needs to do something, improve. I believe an uptick in other areas will follow if the economy improves and inflation, rising prices drops. That the perception among the public is Biden and company aren’t doing anything about the economy, other polls which show Biden’s priorities are all messed up. That he has lost the support of independents.
I’m not condemning Biden nor am I defending Biden. I’m trying to find the reason for low approval and the issue that could fix that and get Biden back above 50% overall job approval. I accept the reality of Biden’s and the Democrat’s situation today. I’ll make no excuses for it. Biden has one thing going for him amidst all these dreary numbers, he is as a person, very likeable. That something Trump wasn’t. Trump and the Republicans were in trouble well before the 2018 midterms. With no chance of improving their chances. Biden’s likeability gives him the chance. Especially in regaining the support of independent voters. His likeability is the difference from voters being angry and just being dissatisfied with Biden’s job he is doing. That sounds silly, but there are many historical references.
The political strategist in me, I’d tell Biden and company to start talking about the economy, rising prices, inflation more. Stress what they’re doing about it or trying to do about it. Talk less about Trump, although the Democratic base loves that. But the Democratic Party base makes up only 30% of the electorate. It’s the economy that will make or break Biden and the democrats in the midterms, nothing else. Can Biden and company do anything about inflation, rising prices, probably not. But talking about it, putting forth ideas to combat it, show the folks they’re not ignoring it in favor of other issues. That in my opinion could make a big difference in how the midterms turn out.
Bottom line, Biden and the Democrats need to recognize that a plurality of the people, 28% of the voters view the economy, rising prices, inflation as this nation’s most important issue, problem facing this nation today. They need to place that at the forefront with all other issues further down. That is if they want to win in the upcoming midterms. Take this in the grain it’s given. A political strategist trying to get his candidate elected or to prevent huge losses in the midterms.
Personally, I like Joe Biden. But liking him as president hasn’t a darn thing to do with him and the Democrats in congress being in the process of blowing the midterm elections
