Senate and House update 10 Feb 2022

Senate +1-3 equals lean, but within the MOE. These states are very competitive with one party or candidate having a slight advantage. +4-6 outside the MOE, equals likely but still competitive. +7 and above, those states aren’t listed. They’re considered solid or safe for the party that currently holds them.

Senate changes -FL Rubio, moved off list to safe Republican, NV D Cortez Masto up from +1 to +3, OH R Open Republican Candidate up from +3 to +4, PA Democratic candidate up from +1 to +2

Arizona Kelly D – Kelly +2 Democratic hold R 50 D 50
Georgia Warnock D – Republican candidate +1 Republican gain R 51 D 49
Nevada Cortez Masto D – Cortez Masto +3 Democratic hold R 51 D 49
North Carolina Burr R – Burr is retiring, open seat. Republican candidate +1 Republican hold. R 51 D 49
Ohio – Portman R – Portman is retiring, open seat. Republican candidate +4 Republican hold. R 51 D 49
Pennsylvania Toomey R – Toomey is retiring, open seat. Democratic candidate +2 Democratic gain R 50 D 50
Wisconsin Johnson R – Democratic candidate +1 Democratic gain R 49 D 51

Missouri R Blunt, Vermont, D Leahy are retiring, these open seats may make my watch list if they become competitive later. As it stands now, the Democrats have a net gain of 1 seat leaving them in control 51-49.

House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 222 Democrats, 213 Republicans. It needs to be noted due to redistricting/gerrymandering the Democrats have added 11 Democratic leaning districts, the Republicans have lost 3 districts, giving the Democrats a 14-seat advantage in the gerrymandering/redistricting war. The GOP needs a net gain of 5 seats to take control of the House. As of 10 Feb 2022, 39 states have completed their redistricting including the 6 states with one lone Representative. 322 districts out of the 435 are completed leaving 113 remaining. Florida is the only big state left. Several medium states have yet to redraw their districts which include North Carolina, Ohio, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Missouri. The remaining are the smaller states which have less than 10 electoral votes.

Out of the 322 newly drawn districts, there are 31 competitive, switchable districts. Currently held by 20 Democrats and 11 Republicans. Safe seats as of 9 Feb 2022, 154 Democratic, 137 Republican. Probable net gain using only the redrawn districts is a Republican gain of 4-6 seats. When one takes the generic congressional ballot into consideration. The Republican congressional candidates have a 2-point advantage, 44-42. Then take the remaining states to be redistricted going by their currently drawn districts, a gain of between 7-10 seats for the Republicans is the most likely.

The Democrats are winning the gerrymandering war as of today. They have added 11 more democratic seats while eliminating 3 safe Republican seats for a 14-seat advantage. The impact on the upcoming midterms is huge. The safe seats without the gerrymandering 143 Democratic, 140 Republican instead of 154 Democrat, 137 Republican. Another effect of the gerrymandering is instead of having 42 competitive seats, we’re down to 31. The odds of the Republicans gaining their needed seats is much greater if 42 seats are contested, competitive, switchable than if only 31 are. There are still 11 states left to finish their redistricting which includes Republican states of Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Louisiana, Missouri to 2 Democratic states of Connecticut and Rhode Island. Then there are 4 swing states left, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Wisconsin. Those 11 states will probably lower the gerrymandering/redistricting advantage the Democrats have today. They will also add to the Republicans safe seats with a chance of evening the safe seats up instead of the Democrats having their current 14 seat redistricting/gerrymandering advantage along with their 17-seat safe seat advantage. Hence the forecast of once redistricting is completed, 7-10 seat net gain for the Republicans.

States in litigation that will probably change the above listed safe and competitive seats depending on the outcome of the lawsuits are listed below. Listed is who drew the maps being challenged by lawsuits.

Idaho – Republican legislature
Maryland – Democratic legislature
Nevada – Democratic legislature
New Mexico – Democratic legislature
Texas – Republican legislature

It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.