Thank You Ken. I do this for every election. Usually limited to senate and house monthly forecasts. The presidency also in presidential years. With this being a redistricting year, I concentrated more on the redistricting part than the forecast part. I’ll continue to do so, post these on other sites. I do let the numbers talk, not the heart or personal feelings. Numbers aren’t partisan, they’re also available for all to see whether one likes what they see or not. Keeping personal feelings and wants out of the equation is the key to having an accurate forecast.
It's a shame RR is gone. I enjoyed it here. I wish you all could see how overtime one party has an advantage, loses it, regains it, numbers go up and down. Today, going by 42 states and their numbers, the Democrats stand a 50-50 chance of keeping control of the house. Gaining a seat or 2 in the senate.
Taking a SWAG once all 50 states complete their redistricting, not knowing the numbers when that happens, I think the Republicans will take the house, 10-15 seats gain over the 213 they have today. In the senate, it may be the GOP that gains a seat or two. Now there are always an unforeseen event, maybe two that happens along the way that upsets this whole applecart leaving the SWAG meaningless. I’ll leave you with this, the numbers today mean little to nothing for November. They show what will happen today if the election were today. Therefore, I usually do these monthly up to 1 Nov which is my last one. It’s been fun.
I wish everyone the best, stay well and safe.
