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Ukraine: How might the war end? Five scenarios (BBC )
The BBC piece provides 5 scenarios - and avoids the 6th. Short War; Long war; European War; Diplomatic solution; Putin ouster- but ignores the possibility of WW3.

Their conclusion is hopeful: "These scenarios are not mutually exclusive - some of each could combine to produce different outcomes. But however this conflict plays out, the world has changed. It will not return to the status quo ante. Russia's relationship with the outside world will be different. European attitudes to security will be transformed. And the liberal, international rules-based order might just have rediscovered what it was for in the first place."

Personally, I don't think there is any sugarcoat for this: Europe is at war, and as long as Putin is in place, peace is unlikely. What say y'all?

I see Putin backing down under international economic pressure and leaving Ukraine inside of 60 days. Possibly claiming victory over American-backed right-wing liberals and neonazis.

But I DO NOT see Putin stepping down or being deposed.

If nothing else, the Middle East wars have shown that a determined population can fight off a world power for as many years as it takes to end the occupation. Zelezny has become a hero to the world and is controlling the narrative.

Putin is fecked and no amount of escalation is gonna fix it.

I See Three Scenarios for How This War Ends (Thomas Friedman, NYT) "I see three possible scenarios for how this story ends. I call them “the full-blown disaster,” “the dirty compromise” and “salvation.”

The disaster scenario is now underway: Unless Vladimir Putin has a change of heart or can be deterred by the West, he appears willing to kill as many people as necessary and destroy as much of Ukraine’s infrastructure as necessary to erase Ukraine as a free independent state and culture and wipe out its leadership. This scenario could lead to war crimes the scale of which has not been seen in Europe since the Nazis — crimes that would make Vladimir Putin, his cronies and Russia as a country all global pariahs."

"Every day that Putin refuses to stop we get closer to the gates of hell. With each TikTok video and cellphone shot showing Putin’s brutality, it will be harder and harder for the world to look away. But to intervene risks igniting the first war in the heart of Europe involving nuclear weapons. And to let Putin reduce Kyiv to rubble, with thousands of dead — the way he conquered Aleppo and Grozny — would allow him to create a European Afghanistan, spilling out refugees and chaos."

Meh..

We’ve been murdering people all the time. OK, Ukranians are white, sure, that’s unsettling to many but how is what he’s doing (on his own border mind you) so different than what we’ve been getting away with?

When your backing the side that has the support of the fascists, you ought to question taking sides.

Ukraine gets partitions. Liberal hegemony is reduced. We enter a tri polar world.

If Russia stops the flow of hydrocarbons to the west, all bets are off as this would destroy the global economy. Russia hadn’t done this, BTW. The Ukraine pipelines have doubled their volume to the maximum contract allowance.

We didn’t take Russia’s security concerns seriously. It looks like the same for their economic concerns (and ours!). If they retaliate in kind, anything’s possible under that scenario.

The "All (or huge majority) of Ukraine consists of Nazi/antisemite/fascists" theory is beginning to sound a lot like "All Democrats are communists".
It reeks of conspiracy theory nut-f**kery.

Imagine an economy that is maybe 65% dependent upon oil revenues suddenly choking off what remains of its nosediving income streams for a protracted period.
Most banks have now frozen Russia's cash stash and global businesses in the West (except Coca-Cola and Mickey D's) don't want to do business with the Russian madman, even if he trades in gold.

In the end, Russia stands to lose a lot more than anyone else as regards their economic future.
It looks like the free world is ready to turn Putin's empire into North Korea of the Urals.

But I'm sure you believe the free world is dead wrong, yes?

Do you think that the overwhelming majority of Ukrainians are neo-Nazis and antisemites?
Do you think that the Ukrainian people cast a fair vote in the Zelensky election?
Do you think that the Ukrainian desire for sovereign self determination is valid?

I’ll answer your questions Jeff just to clarify my position.

Do you think that the overwhelming majority of Ukrainians are neo-Nazis and antisemites?

No, not at all. I never said that. A significant amount, however, do exist where it matters, with backing of oligarchs, to cause no end of trouble. Including scuttling the implementation of Minsk agreements. They have also been causing a good deal of violence toward the Russian aligned breakaways.

Do you think that the Ukrainian people cast a fair vote in the Zelensky election?

That’s a bit muddled. What’s a fair vote? But I do think Zelensky’s election was a crushing rebuke to the right wing elements involved in Maidan and the ultranationalist In general. His platform had broad support including better relations with Russia.

Do you think that the Ukrainian desire for sovereign self determination is valid?

Yes, in as much as their self determination does not lead to their destruction from miscalculation. There was no reason they could not have had integration with Europe in some form. Zelensky’s move to become part of NATO led his country into direct conflict with Russia. They have been played by us, IMO.

Thank you.
"A significant amount, however, do exist where it matters, with backing of oligarchs, to cause no end of trouble" ⬆⬆⬆ ALSO right here in the USA.
Incoming SecDef Lloyd Austin even made it one of his big ticket issues when he took office.
I've known about it for well over fifteen years, and I only say that because it never occurred to me prior to that.
One day we're in the car dealer picking out Karen's new van and the salesman was trying to score points because like Karen, his son is a vet.
So he breaks out the scrapbook and there's his shirtless son sporting SS lightning bolts, Aryan crosses and swastikas all over his body, a veritable inkfest.
Difficult not to puke right then and there.

Zelensky election, the people of Ukraine spoke, in numbers significant enough to show that, while they are grudgingly tolerating the neo-nazi element in their midst,
they're clearly not overjoyed and, should Zelensky prevail, I expect we will see some housecleaning.

Zelensky's "MOVE" to join NATO? Near as I can tell even the most ardent interpretation of Zelensky's intent comes with the understanding
that NATO membership was never promised. Hinted at? Maybe, but even the most starry eyed in our policy tanks recognize the difficulty of NATO against the doorstep
and I think the NATO angle is overblown and overhyped as much as ivermectin was.
And sorry but I also think Putin was going to go this route NATO or NO NATO because just the fact of a democratic Ukraine was more than he was willing to tolerate.
Donald was attempting to PULL US OUT of NATO...and Putin expected it was a fait accompli in Donnie's second term.
Now that that's gone, Vlad is super pissed.

Is the United States/NATO to blame for Euromaidan?
No.
Is the Russia-Ukraine conflict today just about balance of power?
No.
Is this a proxy fight between a democratic West (including Ukraine) and a dictatorial fascist Russian despot with dreams of global conquest?
Yes.

Now, that stuff is all about how we got into this fix.

This thread is about how we get out of it.

Enzo Ferari once said..."What is behind me doesn't matter."

He was an Italian race car driver. Will this be Putin's Waterloo? I don't think so and I don't think he's willing to throw nukes or tank the world's economy for the sake of some Ukrainian real estate.

Maybe I'm wrong and we'll all be dead soon. Wouldn't be the first time.

Ukraine had become a defacto member of NATO. With bases, military training and weapons systems being built up by NATO. Russia’s aim seems pretty straight forward. Wreck the Ukraine military and its associated infrastructure, liquidate the fascist paramilities, break off enough of the eastern part of the country to give them the security they feel is needed. To bad we refused to negotiate but weapons don’t sell themselves. Conflicts do.

So far, Russia hasn’t retaliated in kind on the economic front. So far. If we continue the escalation that could change. I’m not certain the Ivy League boys have thought this one thru. Without replacements for many of the inputs Russia provides? Many banks in France, Italy and Germany are also exposed with their positions in Russia.

I’m not sure what’s worse. Having inputs with no markets to sell into (ok, not necessarily true. There’s the other side of the Eurasian land mass) or having markets with no inputs. With the ‘all gas, no brake’ mind set the propaganda has brought on we may find out. Nothing convinces me that the escalation has been thought thru on the economic front.