It’s been a month since I give you all the latest updates on both the senate and the house.
Senate and House update 9 Mar 2022
Senate +1-3 equals lean, but within the MOE. These states are very competitive with one party or candidate having a slight advantage. +4-6 outside the MOE, equals likely but still competitive. +7 and above, those states aren’t listed. They’re considered solid or safe for the party that currently holds them.
Arizona Kelly D – Kelly +2 Democratic hold R 50 D 50
Georgia Warnock D – Republican candidate +1 Republican gain R 51 D 49
Nevada Cortez Masto D – Cortez Masto +3 Democratic hold R 51 D 49
North Carolina Burr R – Burr is retiring, open seat. Republican candidate +1 Republican hold. R 51 D 49
Ohio – Portman R – Portman is retiring, open seat. Republican candidate +4 Republican hold. R 51 D 49
Pennsylvania Toomey R – Toomey is retiring, open seat. Democratic candidate +2 Democratic gain R 50 D 50
Wisconsin Johnson R – Democratic candidate +1 Democratic gain R 49 D 51
Missouri R Blunt, Oklahoma R Inhofe, Vermont, D Leahy are retiring, these open seats may make my watch list if they become competitive later. As it stands now, the Democrats have a net gain of 1 seat leaving them in control 51-49.
House of Representatives
Currently the House of Representative consists of 222 Democrats, 213 Republicans. The GOP needs a net gain of 5 seats to take control of the House. As of 6 Mar 2022, 46 states have completed their redistricting including the 6 states with one lone Representative. 391 districts out of the 435 are completed leaving 44 remaining. Florida is the only big state left along with Louisiana, Missouri and New Hampshire.
Out of the 391 newly drawn districts, there are 37 competitive, switchable, at risk districts. Currently held by 25 Democrats and 12 Republicans. Safe seats as of 8 Mar 2022, 179 Democratic, 175 Republican. Probable net gain using only the redrawn districts is a Republican gain of 4-6 seats. When one takes the generic congressional ballot into consideration. The Republican congressional candidates have a 2-point advantage, 45-43. Then take the remaining states to be redistricted going by their currently drawn districts, a gain of between 8-10 seats for the Republicans is the most likely.
States in litigation, chances are the courts will let the current maps stand for the upcoming midterms. 3 states previous in litigation, Georgia, Alabama, New York, the courts have dismissed those lawsuits and will let their current map stand for this midterm due to the closeness of the primary and general elections. The courts will rehear the lawsuits again next year.
Maryland – Democratic legislature
Nevada – Democratic legislature
New Mexico – Democratic legislature
Texas – Republican legislature
