So far Greger. We still have around 7 months prior to the election in which anything can happen. That time could work for either side. There’s also the slow trend in party affiliation over the last 9 months. I would say limiting the loss of seats in the house to 10 or there about as is the indication today, would be considered a victory since the average loss is 26 seats. Although that would give the Republicans control. Just keep in mind these are today’s numbers, as in if the election were held today.
The Democrats have a better chance of retaining the senate than the house. That’s because the Republicans have 20 seats to defend this cycle to 14 for the Democrats. In the house the Democrats are defending more seats than the GOP. There’s no indication of a red wave yet, which is good news for the Democrats. Some election cycles the wave election indications comes very early, other elections it comes late. In 2018, the blue wave indicators were there as early as October 2017 which never wavered. In 2010, the red wave election, those red wave indicators didn’t begin until July of 2010. Until July of 2010, it looked like the Democrats would be the victors. In 2006, a blue wave election, those indicators were there a year before the 2006 midterms. No doubt about the Democrats having a banner year in 2006. 1994 was a red wave election which didn’t take hold until June of 1994 when the GOP picked up steam. Each election is different. So, I’m always cautious using phrases like as yet or as of today.
