LOL, an optimist vs. the realist here. Yeah, a lot of what I’m saying, or forecasting is before the candidates are known. That always makes some changes, instead of generic candidate vs. named and known incumbent, you have R Joe vs. D Pete or something like that. There’s an old saying that goes, a week is an eternity in politics. If so, what is 7 months? All it takes is one unforeseen major event to upset the apple cart and put all previous predictions in the trash. You really haven’t seen a rally around the flag or Biden with the Russian invasion of the Ukraine. Biden hasn’t gotten a bump out of that war. 2 weeks ago, Biden had a 41% overall approval rating, today he’s still at 41%. The generic congressional ballot hasn’t changed either, 45-43 two weeks ago, today it’s the same 45-43.
With 7 months to go, your corrections may indeed happen with rising prices. If these minimal lose numbers hold until July, that seemed to be the pivotal month as in the GOP two red wave elections, 1994 and 2010, then I think minimal loses will be forthcoming. No one seen redistricting/gerrymandering working in the Democrats favor as it has. I’m shocked at that, but it’s all part of the political game since around 1812. I accept that and take it as is as it isn’t about to change.
The change in party affiliation, if I were a democrat, that would have me worried. Not the base, but independents which lean towards one or the other party. The drop for the democrats, base plus independents leans from 50% in June down to 44% of the electorate today is huge. Republicans, base plus independents leans rose from 41% in June up to 45% today. Of course, we knew Biden has lost a lot of independent support since August as I pointed out many times. This shift among independents who lean has been very slow, but also very sure. It hasn’t been knee jerk in other words, but slow and methodical. So, we’ll see if that continues. When it comes to the house, keeping track of safe seats and competitive at-risk seats along with party affiliation are great indicators. Which party independents who lean are leaning toward is one great predictive tool.
