Definitely, a lot of dissatisfaction among Independents with Biden and the democratic controlled congress. Biden’s overall job approval has dropped from 55% in June among independents down to 35% today. I think mainly because they think Biden and company has all the wrong priorities. Ignoring what Independents think is the most important problem facing this nation today. Now that hasn’t translated into support for the Republican Party. Although from June until today, independents favorable view of the Democratic Party has fallen from 38% down to 26%. Republican Party favorable has risen from 22% up to 28%. That leaves both parties even considering the polls plus or minus 3-points margin of error.
The Generic congressional ballot is even, only a 2-point difference in favor of the GOP. Safe seats are close to being even. Neither party has an advantage in tossup seats in the senate. All of that is strange, which relates to your statement of the Republicans having their problems too. Usually with a president approval down to around 41%, only 26% of the people thinking this country is headed in the right direction, only 36% approve of Biden’s handling of the economy, inflation, etc. Many more numbers like that, all of that should be pointing to a red wave election. It’s not. Much more in play here than just Biden’s approval. I might call it the Trump factor.
In short, my two cents. Independents don’t like the job Biden is doing, they’ dissatisfied with him. But as you pointed out, they still like him as a person. So, they’re not getting angry at him. Anger at a sitting president and the job he is doing usually results in a wave election. Independents still don’t like Trump. Hence, they’re hesitant to go full hog Republican for the midterm. Independents state they’ll vote for Republican congressional candidate by a 35-29 margin. But that still leaves 36% in the undecided/not sure column. Compare that 36% to the 8% of Democrats and 6% of Republicans who are undecided/not sure. Bottom line, the midterms are still up in the air. The GOP has the edge, a slight edge. But that edge should be a lot more than just slight considering Biden’s very poor approval numbers.
