What you’re getting from me is a view from the general electorate, especially the wishy washy independents. Not all, but a good chunk. Not from a Republican or Democratic perspective or point of view, but from the electorate in general. A realistic point of view which I hope is true, maybe, maybe not.
Biden in Nov 2020 was a safe bet to beat Trump. Independents for the most part disliked Trump, Biden gave them an acceptable alternative. I’m not sure any other Democratic candidate would have been as acceptable to them as Biden was. It worked; independents went for Biden 54-41. That was a larger margin than normal for independents in a presidential race. Getting rid of Trump was the top priority of both Democrats and independents. I don’t think there was a second priority among either one, at least in Nov 2020.
Remember, Biden stayed in his basement, not campaigning much. Smart strategy on his part as he let Trump hog the limelight, the spotlight, he let Trump be Trump reminding independents daily why they disliked him so. I don’t think independents expected Biden to do a single thing outside of ousting Trump from the presidency. When Biden didn’t do anything, Jan-July 2021, his approval rating from independents was at 55% level on average. Once he started to do things, the withdrawal, inflation hit, the price of gas soared, legislation from the left failed, his approval dropped. I’d say most independents looked on Biden as a transition president between Trump and whoever was to come. You’re correct, following Trump was probably a no-win situation. If Biden did nothing, the Democratic base would be angry at him. If Biden tried to do things, independents would turn against him.
Beginning in August, Biden and the progressive left finally had an agenda. Not that most independents wanted one. This could be a case of doing nothing, promoting nothing guaranteed Biden a good approval whereas doing something was going to bring that approval down. I think one needs to look at how independents voted in Nov 2020. 41% for Trump, but 48% and 51% for Republican congressional and senate candidates. They didn’t vote for a Democratic agenda, they voted to get rid of Trump. That’s all they voted for, to be rid of Trump. The Democrats read this as support for their agenda when there was none. Now those 7 and 10 percenters who voted for Biden, against Trump then Republican down ballot has deserted him. They no longer support him. They still don’t like Trump and don’t support him either. I think you’re correct in that a lot of folks, especially independents will sit this election out since they don’t like what Biden and company are at the present doing as their situation has worsen and they don’t like Trump and his cronies. A very interesting midterms to say the least.
