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Biden and the Democrats have lost some support. But that doesn't necessarily translate into Republican wins. Republicans have their own share of problems.

The war was a bit of a surprise and there's no boots on the ground so no rally around the flag yet. We should all utter prayers into the void that this remains the case. But if it resolves itself quickly it will generally favor Democrats.

If it stretches out...maybe not so much. Hard to say.

Definitely, a lot of dissatisfaction among Independents with Biden and the democratic controlled congress. Biden’s overall job approval has dropped from 55% in June among independents down to 35% today. I think mainly because they think Biden and company has all the wrong priorities. Ignoring what Independents think is the most important problem facing this nation today. Now that hasn’t translated into support for the Republican Party. Although from June until today, independents favorable view of the Democratic Party has fallen from 38% down to 26%. Republican Party favorable has risen from 22% up to 28%. That leaves both parties even considering the polls plus or minus 3-points margin of error.

The Generic congressional ballot is even, only a 2-point difference in favor of the GOP. Safe seats are close to being even. Neither party has an advantage in tossup seats in the senate. All of that is strange, which relates to your statement of the Republicans having their problems too. Usually with a president approval down to around 41%, only 26% of the people thinking this country is headed in the right direction, only 36% approve of Biden’s handling of the economy, inflation, etc. Many more numbers like that, all of that should be pointing to a red wave election. It’s not. Much more in play here than just Biden’s approval. I might call it the Trump factor.

In short, my two cents. Independents don’t like the job Biden is doing, they’ dissatisfied with him. But as you pointed out, they still like him as a person. So, they’re not getting angry at him. Anger at a sitting president and the job he is doing usually results in a wave election. Independents still don’t like Trump. Hence, they’re hesitant to go full hog Republican for the midterm. Independents state they’ll vote for Republican congressional candidate by a 35-29 margin. But that still leaves 36% in the undecided/not sure column. Compare that 36% to the 8% of Democrats and 6% of Republicans who are undecided/not sure. Bottom line, the midterms are still up in the air. The GOP has the edge, a slight edge. But that edge should be a lot more than just slight considering Biden’s very poor approval numbers.

I don't think there is a man alive who could have succeeded as president after Trump.

Least of all Biden, who has never once in his life demonstrated any leadership abilities.

But if anybody was to be sacrificed to the post-Trump feeding frenzy it might as well be him.

Biden was handed a politicized pandemic and all its unforeseen economic turmoil and then got a European war dumped on top of him along with its own economic turmoil.

Nobody really hates Biden, what's to hate? A doddering old politician doing the best he can.

But Democrats, in general, haven't done a lot to instill confidence in their ability to govern over the last year or so, spending most of it arguing among themselves. Shoulda put Manchin in charge, passed what he wanted and moved forward. Instead, they remain stalled along with the liberal agenda.

I have no idea what prompted the Afghan fiasco but it created a foreseeable humanitarian crisis. Bad judgment on Biden's part, early in his presidency. He was supposed to come out a hero...with much flag-waving and brave soldiers coming home from the war!

Soon to be followed by record numbers of Americans getting vaccinated and the resulting end of the pandemic.

What we're seeing is the cumulative eye roll of the American electorate.

When neither party is worth voting for, more and more potential voters sit home on their couches and let the partisans duke it out. The result is one-sided policies and misguided legislation.

America yearns for compromise, yet refuses to compromise.

What you’re getting from me is a view from the general electorate, especially the wishy washy independents. Not all, but a good chunk. Not from a Republican or Democratic perspective or point of view, but from the electorate in general. A realistic point of view which I hope is true, maybe, maybe not.

Biden in Nov 2020 was a safe bet to beat Trump. Independents for the most part disliked Trump, Biden gave them an acceptable alternative. I’m not sure any other Democratic candidate would have been as acceptable to them as Biden was. It worked; independents went for Biden 54-41. That was a larger margin than normal for independents in a presidential race. Getting rid of Trump was the top priority of both Democrats and independents. I don’t think there was a second priority among either one, at least in Nov 2020.

Remember, Biden stayed in his basement, not campaigning much. Smart strategy on his part as he let Trump hog the limelight, the spotlight, he let Trump be Trump reminding independents daily why they disliked him so. I don’t think independents expected Biden to do a single thing outside of ousting Trump from the presidency. When Biden didn’t do anything, Jan-July 2021, his approval rating from independents was at 55% level on average. Once he started to do things, the withdrawal, inflation hit, the price of gas soared, legislation from the left failed, his approval dropped. I’d say most independents looked on Biden as a transition president between Trump and whoever was to come. You’re correct, following Trump was probably a no-win situation. If Biden did nothing, the Democratic base would be angry at him. If Biden tried to do things, independents would turn against him.

Beginning in August, Biden and the progressive left finally had an agenda. Not that most independents wanted one. This could be a case of doing nothing, promoting nothing guaranteed Biden a good approval whereas doing something was going to bring that approval down. I think one needs to look at how independents voted in Nov 2020. 41% for Trump, but 48% and 51% for Republican congressional and senate candidates. They didn’t vote for a Democratic agenda, they voted to get rid of Trump. That’s all they voted for, to be rid of Trump. The Democrats read this as support for their agenda when there was none. Now those 7 and 10 percenters who voted for Biden, against Trump then Republican down ballot has deserted him. They no longer support him. They still don’t like Trump and don’t support him either. I think you’re correct in that a lot of folks, especially independents will sit this election out since they don’t like what Biden and company are at the present doing as their situation has worsen and they don’t like Trump and his cronies. A very interesting midterms to say the least.

Midterms are going to be fun because there are so many variables in the way it's going to play out.

The outcome remains stubbornly easy to predict though at this point.

Dems will likely lose the House by a small margin and may keep the senate and even gain a seat.

That would be a historical victory by Democrats considering the shape they're in right now.

So I'm tempted to toss the easy prediction out the window because there is a freaking war in Europe and we might well be into a third world war come election day.

I suspect the entire dynamics of the next two elections are not going to go as we imagine them going, no matter how we might imagine them going.

Dems will likely lose the House by a small margin and may keep the senate and even gain a seat. At least that is what the numbers are showing today. Yes, it would be considered a victory, at least in my eyes since the historical average is a loss of 26 house and 3 senate seats. Although it can be much worse as the Democrats lost 63 house seats and 6 senate seats in 2010. On the opposite end was G.W. Bush in 2002 gaining 8 House seats and 1 senate seat. 9-11 was the major deciding factor there.

Heck, we might not even be here for the midterms if Putin gets so peeved, he launches his nukes. The dynamics of each election is different. There’re no telling how future elections will shape up. Even how we foresee this midterm election shaping up could be completely different a month or two from now. A whole new set of dynamics influencing the midterms we have no way of knowing today what they might be.

**Points toward the war in Europe**

The timing is unfortunate in regards to the midterms. A lot of uncomfortable scenarios become possible.
If China and Russia team up it's gonna be Katy, bar the door.

So far the Russian invasion of the Ukraine hasn’t effected Biden’s nor the Democrats in congress approval/favorable ratings. Biden improved from 41 to 42% overall approval, congressional democrats from 22 to 23%, considering the margin of error of plus or minus 3 points, they’re the same as 3 weeks ago. The generic congressional ballot hasn’t moved, 45-43 in favor of the Republicans. This doesn’t mean there won’t be movement in the future especially if the war escalates. Time will tell.

What the polls are showing is most Americans are against Putin and invasion, but don’t want to get involved militarily. Sanctions are good, but that is as far as most Americans want to go. Interestingly is 20% of Americans want us to send Troops to the Ukraine to fight the Russians. The partisan breakdown of that is 25% of Democrats, 18% of Republicans, 17% of Independents in favor of sending in our military to help the Ukraine fight the Russians.

It seems the bottom line is most Americans are sympathetic to the Ukrainian’s, but don’t want to get involved militarily. 68% of all Americans approve of sanctions only, 65% sending weapons, military aid to the Ukraine. That’s as far as most are willing to go.

Kind of off topic with the above. But the bottom line is Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine hasn’t helped nor hurt Biden’s and the Democrats chances for the upcoming midterms. Usually when something like this happens, there’s a temporary spike for the president. That hasn’t happened. Probably because the invasion, the war doesn’t top domestic issues. The war probably won’t be a top priority or issue as long as we’re not involved militarily. My SWAG on this.

No matter what else happens in regards to the war there are going to be economic disturbances.

More of the same economic disturbances that drove Biden's numbers down in the first place.

That's on the mild end of the chart of what might happen, nuclear annihilation is at the other end. Boots on the ground is in the middle. China has declined to offer aid to the Russians saying: "Not our circus, not our monkeys, we don't want sanctions." So we're good there for now.

But however you look at it, it's the economy having the most effect. We're a fortnight into the war and if Putin sees the error of his ways and pulls out soon, there will be time for recovery before November. If things go well Biden will get credit and Dems will do okay.

There was an article that I glanced over yesterday, I didn’t save it. It basically said, don’t worry about the price of a gallon of gas, worry about the price for a loaf of Bread. What it was getting at is the Ukraine is one of the largest wheat exporters to the world. Thus, not having that wheat exported will affect the global economy. The Ukraine is the 5th largest exporter to the world of wheat. Number 1 is Russia followed by Canada, the U.S. and France.

https://beef2live.com/story-top-20-largest-wheat-exporters-world-0-206491#:~:text=Russia%20is%20the%20largest%20wheat,Canada%20and%20the%20United%20States.

It’s one thing to sanction oil, I think it will be quite another to add wheat to the Russia sanctions. Biden is currently at 37.8% approval on his handling of the economy. Inflation, the price of a gallon of gas, natural gas, the rise in food prices, housing etc. has taken its toll. Not the war in the Ukraine.

But so far, there’s been no change as to the direction of the midterm. Minimal loses in the House, the status quo or perhaps a gain of a senate seat or two for the Democrats. It seems to me that the fact most folks like the old man, Biden as a person, that he and the democrats has been immune to their low approval and favorable numbers regarding projected votes this November. Now there are 36% of independents who reside currently in the undecided/not sure column when it comes to their congressional vote. They like Biden as a person, but don’t like the job he’s been doing, very dissatisfied. They don’t like Trump as a person and don’t care for his influence over the GOP. Give it another couple to three months, we’ll see then which of these begin to win out among independents, the dislike of Trump and his influence or their dissatisfaction with the job Biden is doing per the economy.