Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Winning

You got the wallet part right, pardner, but you're missing the point about the war. It's going to make the economy worse. Dollars to donuts on that, Pero.

Current dissatisfaction is based on an entirely different dynamic where Biden had some theoretical control domestically.

Americans approve of Biden's handling of the war and will now blame Putin for the wallet thinning, not Biden.

You'll see it in the polls in a few weeks.

We’ll see. You could be right. But not so far. Sure, the democratic base has bought into the Putin being the sole individual responsible for inflation etc. Not so with independents, not yet. Independents have seen the steady rise in the cost of food, gas, cloths, housing for over a year now. The war has been going on for three weeks. I suppose given time independents could forget the last year, it’s possible. Come to think of it, they, independents like Biden as a person, not Putin. So yes, possible. Will they? I don’t know. If I had to take a swag, probably not.

Sure, we can check back on this in 3 weeks or so. We should have an answer. If they do, that would be a coup for Biden and the democrats. Stranger things have happened.

I aint sayin' Biden's fortunes are gonna reverse themselves. Just that some folks might soften their opinion of him slightly and his overall approval numbers might to go between 40 and 50 instead of the dismal 30s he's looking at right now.

Approval ratings can be strange and at times change quickly. Probably not as fast as in the past considering the polarized political environment, we now live in. Trump’s overall approval rating was the most constant of any president since Gallup began keeping track of these things. He spent almost his entire president between 40-45% approval. No huge ups and no huge downs.

Obama saw his approval rating drop from 65% in May 2009 down to 48% in August 2009. He also rose from 44% in August of 2012 to 54% election day Nov 2012 when he won his reelection. A 10-point rise in just 3 months. He then abruptly fell back to 44% by April of 2013 and never rose above 50% again until just after the 2016 election.

G.W. Bush saw his approval rating rise from 51% Oct 2001, a month later he was at 90%. That was 9-11 caused. Then it was a slow steady drop until the end of his presidency to a low of just 28%. Bill Clinton was all over the place, dropping from 59% in March 1993 down to 37% in June 1993, then back up to 56% in Sep 1993. Of course, Bill would drop back down to 39% in Nov 1994 when for the first time in 40 years the GOP gained control of the house by winning 54 seats from the democrats. Bill was up to a 60% approval when he won reelection in Nov 1996. Bill’s entire presidency was one huge roller coaster ride of huge rises and huge drops in his overall approval rating.

What we see today in approval rating may not be what we see in a couple to three months. With Biden, one forgets his overall approval was at 55% in July 2021 before a steady decline down to 41% today. He dropped to 50% for August, 49% for September, 43% by the end of October. Biden has been between 40-42% ever since. Fact is Biden has averaged 42% approval since August 2021, just a single point better than Trump’s 41% average for his entire presidency.

I’d like to use Bill Clinton as an example of what can happen. But Bill was president prior to this modern political era we’ve entered of polarization, the great divide along with the super, mega, ultra-high partisanship. Bill could rebound and then fall off the cliff, then rebound again because he was well liked and very charismatic. Biden is well liked but has no charisma and basically no personality. Bill could connect with the people like only Reagan and FDR could and perhaps Obama needs to be added. People tend to fall asleep with Biden.

I'd like to see Biden's numbers up there with Trump's. His leadership and overall job performance are far superior.

But he hasn't got all the dumbest people in America drooling on his boots in their efforts to lick them.

I'd say there were pretty big super mega partisan divides back then too. After all Clinton got impeached for no other reason than to own the libs.

What we didn't have back then were the internets and real high-speed communication.

The kind where a lie can go three times around the world before the truth gets its boots on...

Ya know?

Bet old MT would roll over in his grave to learn that his witty saying isn't an exaggeration anymore.

You’re correct, Biden doesn’t have those avid, drooling followers that Trump had/has. Which is understandable because Biden was chosen only because he was a safe bet to beat Trump Nov 2020. I think Biden was more of a second choice over many others first choices because he had the best chance of defeating Trump. Not that he had a lot of admirers. The number one priority was to get rid of Trump. In that, Biden succeeded.

I was one of those who voted for Biden, not because of his stances on the issues, not because of what he would or wouldn’t do, I didn’t care if he did nothing at all but smile and act presidential. If he got rid of Trump, I’m one happy camper. I may disapprove of many of the things he’s tried and where we stand today as a nation, but I’d never change my vote. Given a Biden/Trump matchup for 2024, Biden still gets my vote. I think delving deep into the numbers, many swing voters feel the same. Their disappointed, dissatisfied with Biden, but would vote for him again if Trump is his opponent. This probably says more about Trump than about Biden. I said this before, to many swing voters who voted for Biden, against Trump then voted Republicans down ballot, Biden was seen as a transition president, a stopgap president between Trump and whoever comes next. These folks aren’t supporters of Biden, never have been. Biden was just the tool to get rid of Trump. Nothing more, nothing less and nothing else was expected of him.

If I read these polls right, the numbers, most of the above folks will vote Republican in the midterm. Then return and vote for Biden if Biden opponent is Trump. They might even vote for Harris. That’s a long shot though. Biden is still liked as a person, although he’s seen lacking in his job performance. Trump is very disliked as a person as is Harris. Never underestimate the power of likeability when pitted against someone who is disliked, not a little, but a lot.

Biden doesn't need the droolers. He needs the Trump haters to hate all Trumpists.

In times of warfare, someone like DeSantis with his Harvard Law degree and his military experience on Seal Team One and combat duty in Afghanistan might look pretty good.

But his confrontational nature is worrisome. He isn't talking about fighting Russians or supporting Ukrainians, he's looking for Americans willing to fight Americans. He wants people who will fight the left(his words in a recent speech) He wants people to wake up and fight wokeness wherever they see it!

Makes sense to me Greger. I don’t know much about DeSantis, haven’t gotten to the 2024 presidential yet. But a Trumper, not Trump, a Trumper who’s much more tactful, genteel, likable as a person might be hard to beat. Of course, that depends on the condition of the country in 2024 and who the Democrats nominate. It is possible.

From what I have seen, the dislike of Trump has stayed with Trump and not with his followers or those who might replace him as the 2024 GOP nominee.

So far, tact, gentility, and likeability are not a part of DeSantis' playbook. Like Trump he favors divisiveness and chaos.

The Republican field for 2024 is getting interesting, Pence and Tom Cotten are planning to run, I expect Nicki Haley to be in there, and If Herschel Walker fails to knock Warnoff off maybe he'll make a halfhearted run...But De Santis scares the hell out of me.