Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Winning

If DeSantis is Trump Jr. in personality. I wouldn’t worry much about him. Most independents seem to have had enough of someone who obnoxious, rude, uncouth. I don’t know much about Cotton, Pence I doubt can win the GOP nomination since Trump doesn’t like him and blames Pence for his defeat. Now Haley, the GOP might have someone there. Walker forget him. Being a UGA football star who lead UGA to a National Championship is good only in GA. Although it might not be enough. Today, Walker has a slight advantage over Warnock, but there’s a long way to go and a campaign to run.

Herschel Walker was legendary! It's sad to see him fallen so low. I only mentioned him because repubs usually have a token black guy in the early running. The last one believed his own lies about vaccines and succumbed to "the virus".

DeSantis is running for governor in the midterms and this would be a good time for voters to reject him if they were going to.

It looks like he's going to win handily. As well as garner more recognition nationwide among the very conservative demographic.

You probably are already aware, but here’s the latest from RCP on DeSantis vs. whoever.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/Florida.html

It certainly does look like DeSantis will win easily. At least as of today.

I’ve spent time going back over the house races today, the competitive/at risk seats have changed. We now have 40 such seats currently held by 27 Democrats and 13 Republicans. Safe seats are now 177 for the Democrats, 174 for the Republicans. With New Hampshire, Florida, Missouri and Louisiana not having completed the redistricting process, today it looks like a 7-10 seat GOP pickup which would give them control of the house. The senate hasn’t changed. The Democrats look good in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but not so good in Georgia. That still boils down to a net gain of 1 seat for the Democrats.

I find it interesting that folks are currently wondering about which Republican wins what election. Just about all Republican plans, attacks, revelations also have to do with their election for office.

Then there are the Democrats. I have been somewhat cruel to them for a long time. What I would really like to see is what must people who vote that way would like to see. Its really pretty simple. Stop all the public battles, have messages they can all support and all Democrats speak with one voice. I have believed, for a very long time, that this is how they can actually win elections. I am not a dues paying Democrat. I vote against the Republican side because I can't bring myself to vote for another reality which, I believe, is simply not true or right (crap).

Just a thought................

As for wondering who will win elections, with me it has to do with getting an accurate forecast. In this quest I leave my heart out of it and go just the numbers available. Hence certain caveats as “as of today, or if the election was held today.” I have no way of knowing what the numbers will be in November. I can take a SWAG, but unforeseen events happen can turn today’s numbers upside down or reinforce them.

These numbers are available for all to see. It’s just a matter at times of knowing where to look. I’m sure the Democrats have looked and crunched these numbers to no end as have the GOP. Why both major parties when the numbers are against them tend to ignore them is beyond me. One would think a political party could use those numbers to let them know on what issues they were weak on and try to correct that weakness. Usually, that doesn’t happen. They’ll double down on what made them weak in the first place instead of adjusting to a point where a weakness could become a strength.

This is where I think the hardcore ideologues come in to play. They refuse to move off, to budge off their ideological stance to even compromise or move toward a more appealing position the voting mass would accept. Both major parties usually will only play toward their base while totally ignoring the largest block of voters, swing voters, independents knowing they must choose either A or B, R or D. I never understood why one or the other party won’t try to attract them into their fold. I suppose, I could be wrong, that it’s the hardcore ideologues in each party that don’t want them. To attract them, those ideologues would have to soften their positions and one might say ideals. Just some reflections. It is what it is.

I consider it all to be pesky. If you, or I, or anybody knew how everybody voted I would fear for for them. Some loon would decide that they didn't just know but caused it and had to go. So its actually a good thing that you haven't known the results of elections. You also are a numbers guy and that's as good as any. I, on the other hand, think that I understand and know because of behavior. I remember when I actually believed that and bet ten bucks on several outcomes. Some I won and some I didn't and lost it all in the end. All that being said it was educational and took me down a bit.

There are a lot of people trying to figure out which way elections will go. Many have been doing it for years. None of them have always been right. I think the real problem is that we have a lot of voters who are clueless and just vote their druthers. I suspect there are some that simply vote for looks (when Kennedy ran many did that one). I also suspect its possible to go on, and on, and on but why bother?

If you ever get to the point wherein you have a system that works do not tell anybody! Not a single soul! Like the song says; "Be Happy"!

My wife does that, she always votes for the candidate that looks the most presidential. Quite a lot of voters vote for the lesser of two evils, the least worst candidate in their mind. The candidate they want to lose the least. This is especially true with independents, the true or pure independents with no leans. This is what I call the anti-vote. Folks who vote against a candidate, but not for any candidate. Any candidate or individual would do as long as it isn’t the candidate they’re voting against.

Trump won the anti-vote in 2016 50-39 over Clinton, 11% voted third party against both. Biden won the anti-vote in 2020 68-30 over Trump. Both Trump 2016 and Biden 2020 owe their election win to those voters who voted against the other candidate, but not necessarily for either Trump nor Biden. Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020 were the candidates that these voters decide to vote for because they really wanted the other guy or gal in Hillary’s case to lose. Atilla the Hun would have done.

A lot has to do with the candidate. Hillary, for instance, went into coal country and told everybody that she was going to shut down the coal industry (something to that effect). Anyway, what happened is that she turned the entire area against herself! She was actually telling the truth and had plans to help those not working but never got that far. I suspect that she was grateful for actually surviving that one. I also remember the guy running for gov of Virginia. He was absolutely sure that he had won the election so he said little things like parents should have no rights when it comes to what their children learn in school - yet another Democratic error. I also remember Biden. He spent a lot of time making promises that never happened to the point where he was ignored. I have always thought his first year was a Biden who thought he was still a senator so he never told anybody what he had done and what he was doing. Kinda like keeping secrets whilst playing senator, I think. I have wondered, now and then, whether they were actually trying to setup a Trump situation for themselves where they could run their mouths with impunity. Hope they have come to their senses on that one.

On the other side Trump can say just about anything. He has his base and they will accept whatever he says and move on. I expect that the reason for their acceptance is their flat out belief in the man regardless of his shortcomings. He is, for instance, the very worst rich guy I have ever heard of. Daddy gave him half a billion and that resulted in 6 bankruptcies - one can only wonder!

Just saying..............

Yes, Trump does have his base. Whatever he says they’ll believe him. But his base is roughly 40% of the electorate. That’s a long way away from 51% usually needed to win elections. Independents still don’t like Trump, the man, the individual as a person to this day. Trump won’t win independents which is a must for any Republican presidential candidate as the GOP is still the smaller of the two major parties. The Democrats just must keep the independent vote close, losing independents by not more than 5 points. This is as long as the Democrats don’t go nominating another Hillary Clinton. What scares me about 2024 if Trump runs again is that the Democrats will nominate Harris. She is someone who independents really dislike as much as they did Hillary Clinton. Only 29% of independents have a favorable view of Harris, 62% unfavorable. Those are Hillary Clinton 2016 numbers among independents. With Hillary, independents cited she was aloof, an elitist, a know it all with a fake smile. Someone easy to dislike if one isn’t a Democrat. I’ve found no reason for the dislike for Harris. At least it hasn’t come out yet.

It's true, foot in mouth, a misstatement certainly can make a major difference. Especially among those who don’t pay much if any attention to politics until an election nears. I would estimate this group makes up perhaps a third of the electorate. These folks are your independents. They have no skin in the game, no say in who the two major parties nominate. They’re just casual political fans. They’re akin to a football fan who only watches the super bowl, who totally ignored the regular season and perhaps the first rounds of the playoffs only to become interested when the super bowl rolled around. Then they forget totally about football. Only instead of football, it’s politics with these folks.

Hillary Clinton also had(and has) her base. Most Democrats voted for her, some independents voted for her. A majority of Americans voted for her. There was nothing wrong with her as a candidate.

When she went into those coal-producing regions and announced future jobs and future plans for a region supported by a dying industry, she was already hated. Because liberals weren't using enough coal and wanted fancy pants renewables. Liberals wanted to take away the luxurious lives the coal miners were living and replace it with one less black lung and poverty ridden.

Trump promised a Clean Coal future and coal-powered automobiles in every garage!

Clinton won the election anyway. But Trump was declared president. Because some votes count more than others.

Your take on that election might be different from mine but I know what the majority of the voters said. It was a fluke induced by the unintended consequences of former legislators who rigged the system to make it fairer for one group than another.

Trump didn't win. Clinton did. Trump was anointed to office via an outdated tradition that seems ludicrous at best in a modern democracy. More like smoke signals from the vatican than a real election.