As for wondering who will win elections, with me it has to do with getting an accurate forecast. In this quest I leave my heart out of it and go just the numbers available. Hence certain caveats as “as of today, or if the election was held today.†I have no way of knowing what the numbers will be in November. I can take a SWAG, but unforeseen events happen can turn today’s numbers upside down or reinforce them.
These numbers are available for all to see. It’s just a matter at times of knowing where to look. I’m sure the Democrats have looked and crunched these numbers to no end as have the GOP. Why both major parties when the numbers are against them tend to ignore them is beyond me. One would think a political party could use those numbers to let them know on what issues they were weak on and try to correct that weakness. Usually, that doesn’t happen. They’ll double down on what made them weak in the first place instead of adjusting to a point where a weakness could become a strength.
This is where I think the hardcore ideologues come in to play. They refuse to move off, to budge off their ideological stance to even compromise or move toward a more appealing position the voting mass would accept. Both major parties usually will only play toward their base while totally ignoring the largest block of voters, swing voters, independents knowing they must choose either A or B, R or D. I never understood why one or the other party won’t try to attract them into their fold. I suppose, I could be wrong, that it’s the hardcore ideologues in each party that don’t want them. To attract them, those ideologues would have to soften their positions and one might say ideals. Just some reflections. It is what it is.
