Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Gerrymandering

Regarding the lawsuit, the plaintiffs used the word "traditional" at least a dozen times, which hardly carries much legal weight in a fight over "fairness". To bolster the meaning of "traditional", the suit states that CD2 (the district I'm in) has only seen one term not won by a Republican since 2012. That as a legal argument strikes me as ridiculous.

They did not mention that it is also "traditional" for the Republican winners to also be involved in the oil and gas business. It is so traditional that the another Dem Representative (2010-2012; conveniently left out of the tradition argument) was also an oilman.

REDISTRICTING as of 25 March 2022

We’re back down to 45 states that has completed their redistricting process as Maryland’s new map was struck down due to excess partisan gerrymandering. There are now 5 states who haven’t completed their redistricting process. Due to Maryland having to redraw their district map, we’re down to 383 newly drawn district which leaves 52 districts remaining to be redrawn. There are now 39 competitive, switchable districts, at risk districts. Currently held by 27 Democrats and 12 Republicans. Safe seats as of 25 Mar 2022, 171 Democratic, 173 Republican.

The importance of safe seats is that they let you know how many seats from the competitive/at risk column and those districts yet to be redrawn a party must win to gain control of the House. As of today, the democrats need 47 more seats to reach the magic number of 218. The Republicans need 45. It remains to be seen how many safe seats each of the 5 remaining states add to each party’s safe seat column. The 5 remaining states are now Maryland, New Hampshire, Florida, Louisiana and Missouri.

REDISTRICTING as of 2 April 2022

Louisiana became the 46th state to complete their redistricting process. There are now 4 states left. 389 districts are now completed, leaving 46 districts to be redrawn. There are 39 competitive, switchable, at risk districts. Currently held by 27 Democrats and 12 Republicans. Safe seats as of 2 Apr 2022, 172 Democratic, 178 Republican.

The importance of safe seats is that they let you know how many seats from the competitive/at risk column and those districts yet to be redrawn a party must win to gain control of the House. As of today, the democrats need 46 more seats to reach the magic number of 218. The Republicans need 40. It remains to be seen how many safe seats each of the 4 remaining states add to each party’s safe seat column along with how many will go into the competitive/at risk column. The 4 remaining states are Maryland, New Hampshire, Florida and Missouri.

On the gerrymandering front, a judge ruled against the New York newly drawn map for excessive partisan gerrymandering. But was immediately appealed meaning chances are this year’s congressional elections will be held under the excessive gerrymandered New York map, but a new map will be drawn after the midterms. Here’s the article.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/31/politics/new-york-map-struck-down/index.html

GERRYMANDERING and REDISTRICTING as of 5 April 2022

On the gerrymandering front, a judge ruled against the New York newly drawn map for excessive partisan gerrymandering. But was immediately appealed meaning chances are this year’s midterms will be held under the excessive gerrymandered New York's map. Due to the appeal the judge’s ruling hasn't effected this year’s redistricting process. Here’s the article.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/31/politics/new-york-map-struck-down/index.html

An interesting note, so far, we have had 4 states where the court has ruled against them for excessive partisan gerrymandering. Ohio and North Carolina, Republican legislatures. Maryland and now New York, Democratic legislatures.

REDISTRICTING

Maryland became the 47th state to complete their redistricting process. There are now 3 states left. 397 districts are now completed, leaving 38 districts to be redrawn. There are 41 competitive, switchable, at risk districts. Currently held by 28 Democrats and 13 Republicans. Safe seats as of 5 Apr 2022, 178 Democratic, 178 Republican.

The importance of safe seats is that they let you know how many seats from the competitive/at risk column and those districts yet to be redrawn a party must win to gain control of the House. As of today, the democrats need 40 more seats to reach the magic number of 218. The Republicans also need 40. It remains to be seen how many safe seats each of the 3 remaining states add to each party’s safe seat column along with how many will go into the competitive/at risk column. The 3 remaining states are New Hampshire, Florida and Missouri.

I wanted to thank you, Perotista, for keeping up the tally.

When the elections happen, it will help to filter the bloviators and hyperventilating from the media about sweeps and waves and mandates. So much of the results are already baked, or manipulated, in that we're really only talking about four dozen or so seats in all of Congress, and maybe two dozen primaries of any significance. Many of the latter can be predicted months in advance, anyway.

But, I, at least, haven't taken the time to quantify the actual manipulation as you have. It's a service to us all.

You’re correct in that most of the house seats and senate seats are already decided. Today, we’re looking at 41 house seats where a change may occur. Competitive, switchable seats. This number is dynamic and will change along with the fact we’re still waiting on 3 states to complete their redistricting. The senate is the same, we’re talking 6 seats that could change, the rest are as you say, baked in. Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona are the 6. All 6 are basically in the 50-50 tossup category today. No big change, no red wave.

I’d say with 47 states completed; you’re looking at a Republican gain of 8-12 seats. The 3 states left, being Missouri and Florida are heavily republican while New Hampshire’s 2 seats will probably go into the competitive column, taking a SWAG, the final Republican gain in the house using today’s numbers is 12-15 seats. No red wave, but enough to regain control.

Two reasons for no red wave, 1. gerrymandering where the Democrats added 10 democratic leaning districts while eliminating 6 Republican leaning districts. 2. The Republican pickup of 13 house seats in the 2020 election when losing the presidency by 7 plus million votes. The GOP under normal circumstance should have lost around 20. Ticket splitters, voting for Biden against Trump, then voting Republican down ballot accounted for the GOP 13 seat house gain. Roughly 7 million people voted for Biden, then for Republican congressional candidates if the exit polls are correct. These 7 million voters in my opinion were anti-Trumpers, but not Pro-Democratic Party. Without the 2 reasons taking place, you’d be looking at a red wave of perhaps a GOP pickup of 40 seats.

2022 is lining up to be a particularly boring/disappointing election for everyone involved.

But the media will whip the red-hats and the blue-hats into a frenzy over it anyway.

Sarah Palin will make her return and likely win a seat in congress....

I wouldn’t put Palin in the U.S. House yet. Alaska has a whole new set of rules. Right now, 51 candidates are vying for the Alaska house seat in a jungle primary. The top 4 finishers will be on the general election ballot, ranked type ballot.

Sarah Palin Knows How to Get Attention. Can She Actually Win?

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/04/us/politics/sarah-palin-trump-endorsement.html

Here's the real problem, and it is the same one that got Trump into office: with that many candidates, you don't have to have much support to move on. Trump did it by garnering less than 17% - mostly less than 12% - in any of the early primaries, and mathematically, with a 4% base, Palin could be a front runner. The real question is, does she have that kind of support? I seriously doubt it, even with a Trump endorsement. People in Alaska know her, and they don't love her. They remember that she quit as Governor halfway through her disastrous term and a lengthy ethics investigation.

"She will vie with Nick Begich III (R), the grandson and namesake of the last person to hold the seat before Young. The late Rep. Nick Begich, a Democrat, disappeared while campaigning when his plane crashed 50 years ago, before Young himself won a special election to fill the vacancy.

Former Senate Majority Leader John Coghill (R), state Sen. Josh Revak (R), former Interior Department official Tara Sweeney (R) and Anchorage Assemblyman Chris Constant (D) are also running. So is Al Gross, an independent who ran for a U.S. Senate seat in 2020.

Alaska’s political scene is small enough that many of the candidates have histories with each other. Revak and Sweeney were both co-chairs of Young’s reelection campaign. Palin will face Andrew Halcro, an independent who took almost 10 percent of the vote when he ran against her for governor in 2006." 51 candidates running for Alaska House seat (The Hill).

But, she's in it because the field is so big, so, good god, there is a chance! The only polling I have seen puts her in the top 4:
33% Al Gross, Independent
30% Sarah Palin, Republican
9% Josh Revak, Republican
8% Lora Reinbold, Republican
16% Not sure
(But,it appears they only included those names)

Palin may make the final four, then it is rank choice voting. I think she’ll be number one followed by the other three on a third or a bit more of the ballots. Then probably number four for the rest of the folks voting. Which could mean she may have received the most first place votes, but not enough to reach 50% plus one, but with more folks placing her number four, she'll end up losing. Who knows? I don’t care much for this rank choice voting.