Yes, Trump does have his base. Whatever he says they’ll believe him. But his base is roughly 40% of the electorate. That’s a long way away from 51% usually needed to win elections. Independents still don’t like Trump, the man, the individual as a person to this day. Trump won’t win independents which is a must for any Republican presidential candidate as the GOP is still the smaller of the two major parties. The Democrats just must keep the independent vote close, losing independents by not more than 5 points. This is as long as the Democrats don’t go nominating another Hillary Clinton. What scares me about 2024 if Trump runs again is that the Democrats will nominate Harris. She is someone who independents really dislike as much as they did Hillary Clinton. Only 29% of independents have a favorable view of Harris, 62% unfavorable. Those are Hillary Clinton 2016 numbers among independents. With Hillary, independents cited she was aloof, an elitist, a know it all with a fake smile. Someone easy to dislike if one isn’t a Democrat. I’ve found no reason for the dislike for Harris. At least it hasn’t come out yet.
It's true, foot in mouth, a misstatement certainly can make a major difference. Especially among those who don’t pay much if any attention to politics until an election nears. I would estimate this group makes up perhaps a third of the electorate. These folks are your independents. They have no skin in the game, no say in who the two major parties nominate. They’re just casual political fans. They’re akin to a football fan who only watches the super bowl, who totally ignored the regular season and perhaps the first rounds of the playoffs only to become interested when the super bowl rolled around. Then they forget totally about football. Only instead of football, it’s politics with these folks.
