We don’t have a single presidential election; we have 50 small presidential elections. I realize a lot of folks are peeved at that, but it is what it is. When one gets right down to it, only 9 states count. The rest are pre-determined. You had the swing states of Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Iowa, Arizona and Georgia. These states change over time.
Independents gave Trump his win over Hillary in the deciding states of Pennsylvania, 48-41 Trump, Michigan 52-36 Trump, Wisconsin 50-40 Trump, even in Florida Trump won independents 47-43 over Hillary. Granted, Trump’s win was a fluke. Everything had to line up perfect, the earth, moon, sun, the planets, solar system and even galaxies for Trump to win. 2016 was such a unique election in that 25% of all Americans disliked both major party candidates and didn’t want neither one to become the next president. That’s the highest dislike of both candidates ever recorded. It just happened that Trump won that dislike of both candidates group, the group that didn’t want neither one to become president. 25% is one huge number. To top that off 54% of all independents disliked both major party candidate and didn’t want neither one to become president. This by itself makes 2016 unique in our history.
It wasn’t that this dislike factor wasn’t known to both major parties. Plenty of polls showed exactly this. But both parties went ahead and nominated their unwanted candidates anyway. Hillary received 48% of the total vote, meaning 52% of all Americans voted against her as did 54% of all Americans vote against Trump. Clinton didn’t receive a majority of the vote; she received a plurality. Big difference in my mind. Maybe not yours.
I firmly believe that almost any other Democrat, alive or dead other than Clinton would have trounced Trump by 10 points or more. The reverse is also true in my mind. That almost any other candidate than Trump would have beaten Clinton by 10 points. But those were the two choices the major parties gave us.
I’ll leave this with you, in 2016 56% of all Americans had a negative view of Hillary Clinton, 60% of Trump. But where it counted and where it made all the difference as to winner and loser, 70% of independents viewed Clinton negatively, 60% viewed trump negatively enabling Trump to win the nationwide independent vote 46-42 with 12% voting against both casting a ballot for a third party candidate. That 4-point win among independents wasn’t enough to overcome the 6-point Democratic party affiliation advantage nationwide as Hillary won the popular vote by 2 points. But in the deciding states, independents made all the difference.
This is our modern political era we live in today. Where basically the non-political, the non-attentive couch potatoes decide who wins or loses elections. As we strive to make elections easier, get more people to the polls, the more influence and decisive votes couch potatoes will have. We’re turning our elections over to people who don’t care who wins or loses. Or to people who only vote for the candidate they least want to lose. They don’t vote a candidate they want to win, just against a candidate they want to lose the most.
