Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Winning

Granted, Trump played the media and got a billion dollars of free media exposure. He was the headline, top story of every news cast while Hillary was placed on the second page or further back. Hillary brought a lot of that on herself by refusing to go on any show or to be interviewed by anyone who didn’t downright support her.

I also agree that Hillary thought she had this won before it began. Also, Trump never thought he would win. He was just using the presidential election to get a better TV show and contract. I saw the look on Trump’s face when he was told he won; shock would be a mild way to put it. He never expected it.

Then there was turnout. The Democrats had a 6-point advantage in voter or party affiliation in 2016, but only a 2-point advantage among those who turned out to vote. There’s no doubt in my mind had the Democrats with their larger base turned out in the same percentages as the Republicans, Clinton would have won. Perhaps they too thought Hillary had it in the bag.

What I noticed was how energetic Hillary was during the primaries, she lost that energy during the general election campaign. I thought she was lazy at times. Which made me wonder if something was wrong with her, physically I mean. I don’t know, she never said. TV, reality, each of us view reality differently.

Republicans and Democrats own the horses/candidates in these races/elections. Their stake in the race/election is very high. A lot of independents are the 2-dollar window betters. They don’t have a stake in who wins or loses. They may have their druthers, but the stake is minimal. They’ll vote on a whim, on who’s more charismatic, who looks more presidential, who has the better presidential personality, on the thickness or thinning of their wallet, the better campaign slogan, etc. Many of our elections are decided by those who really don’t care who wins and couldn’t tell one thing about the candidates or where they stand on the issues.

Yes Greger, I also thought Hillary was going to win. I went to bed around 2200 hrs and didn’t find out Trump won until the next morning. Now I’m not sure why everyone, to include me thought Hillary would win. I went back to look at the polls to see what I had missed. I found that in Pennsylvania, Trump had forged to a one-point lead, in Michigan, he was tied with Clinton and in Wisconsin, all the polls were at least 2 weeks old if not older. Useless. I went with history in those states since the Democratic presidential candidate had carried all three of those deciding states in the last 7 presidential election. The information was there, it was just overlooked by the pundits and forecasters. That includes me.

Trump winning Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin wasn’t that big upset everyone made it out to be. The numbers were there, just ignored. Inflation is what’s hurting Biden big time. I don’t think he’s done anything wrong. He just happens to be president during rising prices which turns most independents against the president regardless of who that president is.

If you’re interested in why Biden and the democrats are on the downslide, you have this. There’s a ton of information in this, more than even the most avid political junkie can absorb. But it does let one know where things stand today.

https://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/WSJPOLL032022.pdf

I don't need a TLDR document to tell me where things stand today. And knowing that, it's fairly simple to predict what will happen tomorrow.

We're just a hop and a skip from hurricane season. Given the run of bad luck Biden has had, you wanna lay odds on a major strike to a coastal city...? I'm just sayin', these things tend to spiral out of control sometimes.

Living in Florida, you ought to be used to hurricanes. I think we have a lot of folks who can’t face reality of where things do stand today. Either that they tend to ignore it or discard it, won’t believe it. Biden and the democrats are in trouble, election wise for the midterms. For Biden himself, not being up for reelection, having such poor approval numbers doesn’t hurt him or his chances this far out from 2024. Timing is everything. Obama had dropped to 40% approval prior to the 2010 election but rebounded nicely up to 53% come Nov 2012 and easily won reelection. The Democratic congress didn’t fair so good as they lost 63 house seats and 6 senate seats in 2010. But with Obama’s fairly easy win, the democrats only regained 8 of those house seats while losing another 2 senate seats.

I’d say Biden and the Democrats are in trouble today comes from independents. Those who don’t pay much if any attention to politics but know how much they must pay for a loaf of bread and a gallon of gas. They blame Biden and the Democrats. Never mind Biden and the Democratic controlled congress have no control over those prices, they’re in charge, they get the blame. Here’s a good article on gas prices.

5 myths about oil and gas prices

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-myths-about-oil-and-gas-prices-160510294.html

I doubt those who are blaming Biden will ever read it. As I said, want to know how the midterms will turn out, watch the price of a gallon of gas. Also, due to all past presidents taking credit for a good economy, a president is going to get the blame when it turns sour. That’s politics.

Biden and the Democrats would absolutely be blamed for rising prices if the perception was that it was a domestic issue. The war gives them a little wiggle room. Maybe even an off-ramp.

If everything can be blamed on Putin and Russia then it can't be blamed on Biden and Dems.

As long as Biden's handling of the war gets fair marks it will take some pressure off them.

Who knows, a "rally round the flag" moment might swing things in an entirely different direction.

I suspect the problem with the Democrats is that they simply don't always vote. They have to be genned up to get that done. The other problem is how they deal with voters. I used to be able to write to my elected and I would receive a reply. Now, if I write my elected (they are all Dems) sometimes i receive a reply and the reply I get is rarely on subject and ALWAYS asks for money! I rarely write to my elected anymore as its just a waste of time and then they have my address so they can dun me about 10 times a day. When I get those dunnings I make sure that I have attached the fact that I consider them to be spam which tend to thin them a bit but, over time, the begging floods my email and I am just too lazy to change my email address but, eventually, I will have to do that.

When Hillary was running my wife went to the Dems and offered to help and they put her on the phone lines (I have reported this before). She noticed that there were NO Hillary signs so she asked if she could have a couple to put in front of the house. She was told she could have as many as she wanted but had to pay 30.00 for each one. She quit working for them then and there. It also explained another reason Hillary didn't win. She was ignored on the TV, didn't put up many signs, and was above it all.

Basically, the Dems just don't seem to give a damn and just want more money. I am sure there are a lot of other reasons but they just do a seriously bad connection with voters. In other words if one wants to be a Democrat they don't make it easy.

Oh, again. I vote Democratic. I do that because I really don't like the Republicans and my reasons are many. The thing is that I really want them to win and my problem is that I really don't think the Democrats really don't give a damn because they seem to have "important" stuff to do but nobody is really sure just what that is.

An example. In the first year of Biden he, pretty much, kept everything he did or was doing a secret whilst he was playing long term Senator. It took him a year to figure that one out even with every Democratic talking head telling him to do it. Instead we were gifted with watching the Dems fight like hell - with each other! My dream for them is that they have specific messages and speak with one voice. (I know, not gonna happen). The Republicans do that, and it works and they know it. Perhaps the Dems don't want to do that because its too Republican and for the first year nobody could figure out just what the hell they were actually doing!

LOL, I don't see anything jgw that I disagree with or could add too. I think you're right on the money. The republicans although the smaller party has always had a higher percentage of folks who turn out to vote than the Democrats. It does seem to me having your supporters buy yard signs and bumper stickers is counter productive. I wondered why in both 2016 and 2020 I didn't see many bumper stickers or yard signs. This explains it. Now in 2008 and 2012, there were a ton of Obama bumper stickers.

The last time I wrote my congressman was quite awhile ago. I did receive a reply, a form letter on an entirely different subject. Your complaints aren't new and aren't specific to yourself. It seems they happened to everyone.