Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Gerrymandering

I only brought up Palin to point out the sadness and absurdity we will see come November.

Sadness and absurdity.

The signs are all around us. The crazy on full display.

I would love it if you could link to that article.

I wish I could too, but by the time I wrote that I couldn't find it. Sometimes late at night I read something on my phone and can never find it again.

Democrats have done a pretty good job. They got some legislation passed and until the Republican opposition to vaccines took over Biden managed to get millions of shots into arms(including into most Republican arms). America is fortunate to have a pretty high resistance to the virus because of that.

The best jobs report in decades just came out. The president's numbers would generally jump when that happened. Biden's numbers remain in the tank.

The war is a wild-card, so far Biden has done okay and the nation is(more or less) united on the international front. I see it as most likely benefiting Dems more than Reeps.

So there's a light at the end of the tunnel for Democrats, even if it looks dim right now.

The midterms have remained stubbornly predictable. But even though they will lose the House it will be by such a small margin that it will be a historical win(so to speak).

Reeps could have sat on their hands, pointed to inflation, and won the midterms. Instead they've gone on a culture war legislation spree against every demographic except straight white Christian males. Essentially the fringe is running the GOP right now and it could backfire on them.

I remain hopeful.

Here’s the latest, over the last three weeks there has been a slow movement toward the GOP in the senate while the house has remained steady. Average seat loss for the house is 26. Just keep in mind these stats, figures are very dynamic and at times change daily.

Senate and House update 7 Apr 2022

Senate +1-3 equals lean, but within the MOE. These states are very competitive with one party or candidate having a slight advantage. +4-6 outside the MOE, equals likely but still competitive. +7 and above, those states aren’t listed. They’re considered solid or safe for the party that currently holds them.

Senate changes – GA Republican candidate up from +1 to +2, NV D Cortez Masto down from +3 to +1, NC Republican candidate up from +1 to +2, WI R Johnson from a -2 to a +1

Arizona Kelly D – Kelly +2 Democratic hold R 50 D 50
Georgia Warnock D – Republican candidate +2 Republican gain R 51 D 49
Nevada Cortez Masto D – Cortez Masto +1 Democratic hold R 51 D 49
North Carolina Burr R – Burr is retiring, open seat. Republican candidate +2 Republican hold. R 51 D 49
Ohio – Portman R – Portman is retiring, open seat. Republican candidate +4 Republican hold. R 51 D 49
Pennsylvania Toomey R – Toomey is retiring, open seat. Democratic candidate +2 Democratic gain R 50 D 50
Wisconsin Johnson R – Johnson +1 Republican hold R 50 D 50

Missouri R Blunt, Oklahoma R Inhofe, Vermont, D Leahy are retiring, these open seats may make my watch list if they become competitive later. As it stands now, we’re back to the 50-50 tie with the Democrats still in control with VP Harris’s tie breaking vote.

House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 222 Democrats, 213 Republicans. The GOP needs a net gain of 5 seats to take control of the House. As of 7 Apr 2022, 47 states have completed their redistricting including the 6 states with one lone Representative. 397 districts out of the 435 are completed leaving 38 remaining. Florida is the only big state left along with Missouri and New Hampshire.

Out of the 397 newly drawn districts, there are 41 competitive, switchable, at risk districts. Currently held by 28 Democrats and 13 Republicans. Safe seats as of 7 Apr 2022, 178 Democratic, 178 Republican. Probable net gain using only the redrawn districts is a Republican gain of 8-12 seats. When one takes the generic congressional ballot into consideration. The Republican congressional candidates have a 2-point advantage, 45-43. Then take the remaining states to be redistricted going by their currently drawn districts, a gain of between 12-15 seats for the Republicans is the most likely.

Stubbornly predictable.

It's almost as if the 2022 results were written in stone.

Like Joe Biden's numbers, nothing seems to budge them.

That is what I find so mind-numbingly frustrating. I know the historical trends are against it, but consider that the economy - while inflation looms as a factor - is doing well. How is the US economy doing compared to pre-pandemic levels?:

US GDP grew 5.7% in 2021 after decreasing 3.4% in 2020.
The economy added 6.7 million jobs in 2021, rebounding from 9.3 million lost jobs in 2020.
2021's average annual unemployment rate was 5.4%, about 2.7 percentage points lower than in 2020 but 1.7 points higher than 2019. (But only 3.6% now, even better than 2019, and very close to full employment.)
The labor force participation rate remains 1.2 percentage points below February 2020.
About 12,000 more businesses closed than opened in 2020.
Before adjusting for inflation, average hourly earnings grew from $28.56 in February 2020 to $31.40 in December 2021, increasing by 10%.
Consumer prices were 7.5% higher in January 2022 than January 2021, the largest 12-month change in 40 years.
Last year, the US imported $859.1 billion more in goods and services than it exported, leading to a 27.0% increase in the trade deficit from 2020.

All of this was predictable, and should be understood by the public, but... well, we're not that well educated.

I doubt Biden’s numbers will budge much until inflation gets under control. Sticker shock, empty shelves, thinning wallets. I’d say for a bunch of folks, mainly the non-affiliated, everything else is secondary.

As I said many times before. It’s the one in charge when the economy turns sour that gets the blame. The one in charge gets the credit during good time and a roaring economy. Far as I know, it’s always been this way. Paying over 4 dollars and in some places over 5 for a gallon of gas when one can remember it being around 2 dollars, 3.50 for a loaf of bread instead of 2.00 or 6 dollars for a package of hot dogs when one can remember when they were 3, folks have to blame it on someone. That someone is the one in charge regardless of party.

This group isn’t interested in the whys and wherefores. They don’t care, they just want prices to drop back to where they remember them. They want their wallets to be thickening, not thinning. Basically, this is politics 101. I’d say the Democratic Party faithful still support Biden, Republicans still oppose him. It’s independents who voted against Trump, for Biden that are leading the desertion pack. I don’t think Biden and the democrats ever had their support, they were just anti-Trump, not pro-Biden nor Democratic Party. These anti-voters who voted against Trump in 2020 are now getting ready to vote against Democratic congressional and senate candidates. Anti-Voters usually make up around 25% of the electorate.

Big news on the Gerrymandering/Redistricting front. New York's supreme court has thrown our that states new map. Which shrinks the Democrats gerrymandering advantage from a plus 10 democratic leaning districts and a minus 6 republican leaning districts to a plus 7 Democratic leaning districts along with minus 3 Republican districts.

REDISTRICTING/GERRYMANDERING as of 23 April 2022

New York’s supreme court struck down New York’s new congressional map due to gross partisan gerrymandering in violation of that’s states constitution. We’re back down to 46 states having completed the redistricting process. There are now 4 states left, New York, Florida, Missouri and New Hampshire. 371 districts are now completed, leaving 64 districts to be redrawn. There are 38 competitive, switchable, at risk districts. Currently held by 28 Democrats and 10 Republicans. Safe seats as of 23 Apr 2022, 157 Democratic, 176 Republican.

The importance of safe seats is that they let you know how many seats from the competitive/at risk column and those districts yet to be redrawn a party must win to gain control of the House. As of today, the democrats need 61 more seats to reach the magic number of 218. The Republicans need 42. It remains to be seen how many safe seats each of the 4 remaining states add to each party’s safe seat column along with how many will go into the competitive/at risk column. The 4 remaining states are New York, New Hampshire, Florida and Missouri.

Talk about things coming hot and heavy all of a sudden. First New York’s state appellate court throws out their redistricting map, then Florida finishes theirs.

REDISTRICTING/GERRYMANDERING as of 22 April 2022

New York’s state appellate court struck down New York’s new congressional map due to gross partisan gerrymandering in violation of that’s states constitution. Then Florida approved their new map. 47 states having completed the redistricting process. There are now 3 states left, New York, Missouri and New Hampshire. 399 districts are now completed, leaving 36 districts to be redrawn. There are 40 competitive, switchable, at risk districts. Currently held by 29 Democrats and 11 Republicans. Safe seats as of 22 Apr 2022, 165 Democratic, 194 Republican.

The importance of safe seats is that they let you know how many seats from the competitive/at risk column and those districts yet to be redrawn a party must win to gain control of the House. As of today, the democrats need 53 more seats to reach the magic number of 218. The Republicans need 24. It remains to be seen how many safe seats each of the 3 remaining states add to each party’s safe seat column along with how many will go into the competitive/at risk column. The 3 remaining states are New York, New Hampshire, and Missouri.

Things are getting pretty weird these days. A county judge strikes down Kansas’s approved map. That will be appealed. I’m surprised a county judge has that much authority. New York Democratic legislature has also appealed the striking down of their map. Florida’s new map is being litigated. It probably won’t stand either. As soon as I think the redistricting process will be finished in a couple of weeks, another judge or court strikes down another state’s map. This makes me wonder if this process will ever end.

REDISTRICTING/GERRYMANDERING as of 25 April 2022

With a county judge in Kansas striking down Kansas’s new redistricting map, we down to 46 states that have completed the redistricting process. The 4 states left are now Kansas, New York, Missouri and New Hampshire. 395 districts are now completed, leaving 40 districts to be redrawn. There are 39 competitive, switchable, at risk districts. Currently held by 28 Democrats and 11 Republicans. Safe seats as of 25 Apr 2022, 165 Democratic, 190 Republican.

The importance of safe seats is that they let you know how many seats from the competitive/at risk column and those districts yet to be redrawn a party must win to gain control of the House. As of today, the democrats need 53 more seats to reach the magic number of 218. The Republicans need 28. It remains to be seen how many safe seats each of the 4 remaining states add to each party’s safe seat column along with how many will go into the competitive/at risk column. The 4 remaining states are Kansas, New York, New Hampshire, and Missouri.