Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Gerrymandering

Because if it was Dems doing it they would be doing it for a good reason. Like saving Democracy! Like preventing a dictator from taking over! Like saving America from fascism!

Here something from Larry Sabato Crystal Ball report that I get in my inbox in the AM. I found it quite interesting. Democrats backing an independent in Utah, they did that back in 2010 with Murkowski against Joe Miller in Alaska. Murkowski was a write in candidate that year as Miller won the GOP primary. That year the GOP blew it in not only Alaska, but also in Missouri and Indiana where cinch elections for the republicans were lost due to the GOP nominating extremist candidates. Aiken in Missouri and Mourdock in Indiana. Anyway, interesting read. At least I found it so.

Minority parties seek creative solutions in one-party states
The United States is a nation increasingly polarized by party and by state. In many states, one party dominates while the other flails in seemingly permanent irrelevance. In such states, primary voters for the dominant party are often able to flex their muscles to nominate a comparatively extreme candidate, who is all but assured a victory in the general election.

Is there another way for minority parties in lopsided states to compete? There does seem to be an appetite for alternatives this year. Consider:

-- In Utah, Republican Sen. Mike Lee is running for reelection. In recent years, Utah Democrats running statewide have been unable to break 40% of the vote. This year, Evan McMullin, a former third-party presidential candidate from the state, decided to run as an independent, touting himself as a centrist alternative to Lee. While McMullin has an uphill climb seeking to oust a Republican incumbent in Utah, he got a break last weekend when Utah Democrats pledged not to nominate a candidate in the race. This gives McMullin a somewhat better shot at stitching together enough Democrats and moderate Republicans to make the race competitive.

-- In Alaska, Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski is facing another Republican, Kelly Tshibaka, who has the backing of former President Donald Trump and the state Republican Party. Her candidacy could imperil Murkowski’s hopes of winning another term, but Murkowski is banking on a voting system approved by voters that will be used for the first time in 2022. On Aug. 16, the state will hold an all-party Senate primary; the top 4 finishers, regardless of party, will then face off in the general election, which will use a ranked-choice voting system. This could boost Murkowski, who is considered one of the Senate GOP’s few moderates and who has historically gained support from otherwise Democratic-leaning labor unions and Alaska Natives. In a ranked-choice system, Democratic voters would be able to rank Murkowski as their second choice and help her win in a second round against the more conservative Tshibaka. Further aiding Murkowski is that the Democrats have no candidates in the race at this point. (The filing deadline is June 1.)

-- In Missouri, the open-seat race to succeed GOP Sen. Roy Blunt has produced a Republican primary in which the candidates have rushed to align themselves with Trump. This state of affairs so worried former Republican Sen. John Danforth that he issued a public call for an independent centrist candidate. Initially it seemed like he found one -- Thomas P. Schneider, the former mayor of Florissant. But Schneider eventually decided not to run, instead endorsing one Republican (state Senate President Pro-Tem Dave Schatz) and one Democrat (beer heiress Trudy Busch Valentine), declaring them both to be “pragmatic” candidates.

Sometimes, in my blood-red county, Democrats just run as Republicans. There isn't really what you'd call a "two-party system" here.

There are times Greger when that option running as a Republican but being a Democrat or being a Democrat running a more conservative campaign is in places the only way to win an election. Manchin would never be a Democratic senator if he ran as a liberal in West Virginia. Romney would never have become governor of Massachusetts if he ran as a conservative Republican, the same for Hogan in Maryland for a more up to date example. I understand why those running for office do these things. It gives them a chance to win where otherwise, they’d have zero.

When just winning is everything and what one wins means nothing.

You think so Jeffrey. What would have been accomplished if there was no Joe Manchin in the senate. A conservative democrat who won in a state where no liberal would get close to 40%. Nothing would have been accomplished of what so far Biden and company have gotten. Some in my opinion is always better than nothing.

That’s probably the major difference between us. I’m not an all or nothing guy. Perhaps more of a pragmatist than an ideologue. Small steps every year is always moving forward. Throwing the dice, you may get everything, you may get zero, nothing. Then it’s wait with nothing for 2-4 years or more. It may mean taking several steps backwards or sliding further down the hill which in 2-4 years means you have that much farther to climb.

To be successful, one must judge the mood of the whole country. Not just one’s party base. Failure to do this will let you sit on the sidelines for quite a long while unable to accomplish a single thing. Without Manchin and Sinema, no control of the senate. Without the moderate Democrats from swing and red districts, no control of the house. Without them, no agenda, no legislation ever gets passed. With them, there are possibilities, perhaps not all of what you want, but some, maybe most. But not all. Again, that the political realist in me talking. Politics is the art of the possible, those who are political savvy knows what is and isn’t possible. How much or how little and when.

We are less than a millimeter away from full throated authoritarian state fascism and you're saying we've gotten something. Amazing.
After November, if the Trumpistas wipe out both chambers, and the mass arrests and "Marshall" law MTG dreams about begin to become a reality, get back to me.
We can talk about it in the cattle car taking us to our filtration camps.

Here’s what is going on with the 4 states that haven’t finished their redistricting. I really must give Governor Chris Sununu credit. He wants two competitive districts, not one safe Democratic and one safe Republican. Darn shame that all states don’t follow Gov Sununu in trying to let the voter hold the incumbents accountable.

NEW HAMPSHIRE April 27
On April 27, the New Hampshire House Committee on Redistricting advanced a new congressional map proposal that was introduced by Republican legislators two days before. The new map is similar to the map previously passed by the legislature, which Gov. Chris Sununu had vowed to veto.

The proposed map would produce one Democratic seat and one Republican seat in all but the biggest wave elections. However, the map did not assuage Sununu’s concerns; the governor issued a statement saying the New Hampshire citizens were counting on them to deliver a map that keeps incumbents accountable and districts competitive and that this new map was “still not there.”

NEW YORK April 27
The highest state court in New York, called the Court of Appeals, upheld a lower court ruling that the state's new congressional maps violate the state constitution. A special master will work with the lower court to draw new districts.

FLORIDA April 25
Civil rights groups filed a lawsuit in state court challenging the state's new congressional map. Plaintiffs argue that the new districts violate the state's constitution—namely the Fair Districts Amendment—because the map favors Republicans by a more than two-to-one margin, and because the map dilutes the power of racial minority voters.

KANSAS April 25
On April 25, a county judge struck down Kansas’s Republican-passed congressional map, ruling that it dilutes the votes of both Democrats and nonwhite Kansans. The attorney general is appealing the decision to the Kansas Supreme Court, but the high court may not be inclined to overturn the decision: Five of its seven members were appointed by Democratic governors.

I made a big mistake here, Missouri is one of the four states that hasn’t completed redistricting, Florida has. I should have listed Missouri instead of Florida. Here’s what is going on with the 4 states that haven’t finished their redistricting. Florida has completed its redistricting, but is now in litigation. Here’s the updated status.

MISSOURI April 8
Missouri lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are seeking to have the court intervene to break the ongoing stalemate in the congressional redistricting process.

NEW HAMPSHIRE April 27
On April 27, the New Hampshire House Committee on Redistricting advanced a new congressional map proposal that was introduced by Republican legislators two days before. The new map is similar to the map previously passed by the legislature, which Gov. Chris Sununu had vowed to veto.

The proposed map would produce one Democratic seat and one Republican seat in all but the biggest wave elections. However, the map did not assuage Sununu’s concerns; the governor issued a statement saying the New Hampshire citizens were counting on them to deliver a map that keeps incumbents accountable and districts competitive and that this new map was “still not there.”

NEW YORK April 27
The highest state court in New York, called the Court of Appeals, upheld a lower court ruling that the state's new congressional maps violate the state constitution. A special master will work with the lower court to draw new districts.

KANSAS April 25
On April 25, a county judge struck down Kansas’s Republican-passed congressional map, ruling that it dilutes the votes of both Democrats and nonwhite Kansans. The attorney general is appealing the decision to the Kansas Supreme Court, but the high court may not be inclined to overturn the decision: Five of its seven members were appointed by Democratic governors.

COMPLETED REDISTRICTING, BUT IS IN LITIGATION WHICH THE COURTS MAY INVALIDATE FLORIDA'S NEW MAP
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FLORIDA April 25
Civil rights groups filed a lawsuit in state court challenging the state's new congressional map. Plaintiffs argue that the new districts violate the state's constitution—namely the Fair Districts Amendment—because the map favors Republicans by a more than two-to-one margin, and because the map dilutes the power of racial minority voters.

So what do you figger a "millimeter" means as a measure of time? It's pretty little thing...

is it a day?

A week?

A year?

WIll the 2022 midterms mark our descent from a democracy into full-throated authoritarian state fascism?

Or will it be after the 2024 Presidentials? How long after?

Seems to me you should be speaking in terms of kilometers not millimeters.