My 1 May 2022 update on the upcoming midterms. Good news for the Democrats in maintaining control of the senate, bad news in the house races.
Senate and House update 1 May 2022
Senate +1-3 equals lean, but within the MOE. These states are very competitive with one party or candidate having a slight advantage. +4-6 outside the MOE, equals likely but still competitive. +7 and above, those states aren’t listed. They’re considered solid or safe for the party that currently holds them.
Senate changes – New Hampshire added to my watch list, GA Republican candidate down from +2 to +1, NV D Cortez Masto up from +1 to +2, OH Republican candidate down from +4 to +2, WI Democratic candidate from a -1 to a +1
Arizona Kelly D – Kelly +2 Democratic hold R 50 D 50
Georgia Warnock D – Republican candidate +1 Republican gain R 51 D 49
Nevada Cortez Masto D – Cortez Masto +2 Democratic hold R 51 D 49
New Hampshire Hassan D – Hassan +4 Democratic hold R 51 D 49
North Carolina Burr R – Burr is retiring, open seat. Republican candidate +2 Republican hold. R 51 D 49
Ohio – Portman R – Portman is retiring, open seat. Republican candidate +2 Republican hold. R 51 D 49
Pennsylvania Toomey R – Toomey is retiring, open seat. Democratic candidate +2 Democratic gain R 50 D 50
Wisconsin Johnson R – Democratic candidate +1 Democratic gain R 49 D 51
Missouri R Blunt, Oklahoma R Inhofe, Vermont, D Leahy are retiring, these open seats may make my watch list if they become competitive later. The Democrats are looking at taking a 51-49 advantage.
House of Representatives
Currently the House of Representative consists of 222 Democrats, 213 Republicans. The GOP needs a net gain of 5 seats to take control of the House. As of 1 May 2022, 46 states have completed their redistricting. 395 districts out of the 435 are completed leaving 40 remaining. New York (26) along with Missouri (8), Kansas (4) and New Hampshire (2).
Out of the 395 newly drawn districts, there are 39 competitive, switchable, at risk districts. Currently held by 29 Democrats and 10 Republicans. Safe seats as of 1 May 2022, 164 Democratic, 191 Republican. Probable net gain using only the 46 states with their new redrawn districts, is a Republican gain of 12-15 seats. Which would give the GOP control of the house with the majority over the Democrats somewhere between 225-210 to 228-207. Keep in mind when New York, Kansas, Missouri and New Hampshire complete their new maps, it will change the above once they completed drawing their new maps.
