Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Gerrymandering

I can't do that thing you're doing....sorry.
You know, that kind of IDGAF + It Can't Happen Here thing.

It's certainly your prerogative but I just can't do it.
History shows how fast things begin to move suddenly when a political party decides to declare total war and completely upend a set of values that a nation is founded on.

This nation was founded as a republic based on the values of its constitution, one of which is democracy which, while not mentioned by word, is enshrined in the power of the vote and the Bill of Rights.

And the Republican Party is using every bit of the Putin playbook to dismantle all of it. They are literally out for blood...this isn't politics as usual anymore, Greger.

Think about it, the CPAC was held in Hungary, Viktor Orban's Hungary, the Hungary that now wants to see democracy turned into a shell, a 180 degree polar reversal of the Hungary of 1956.

What more does one need to realize that the target is liberal democracy in America by force and by bloodshed if they deem it necessary.

I get it, you're sure a full coup d'etat will never happen, or if it does, that life will go on and business as usual, or maybe I'm wrong and you have a different view altogether.

I see mass political insanity and a functional idiocracy of a nation that can't comprehend the true nature of the political comet coming to wipe out "business as usual".
I see a political Chixilub.

I see a political Pompeii.

My 1 May 2022 update on the upcoming midterms. Good news for the Democrats in maintaining control of the senate, bad news in the house races.

Senate and House update 1 May 2022

Senate +1-3 equals lean, but within the MOE. These states are very competitive with one party or candidate having a slight advantage. +4-6 outside the MOE, equals likely but still competitive. +7 and above, those states aren’t listed. They’re considered solid or safe for the party that currently holds them.

Senate changes – New Hampshire added to my watch list, GA Republican candidate down from +2 to +1, NV D Cortez Masto up from +1 to +2, OH Republican candidate down from +4 to +2, WI Democratic candidate from a -1 to a +1

Arizona Kelly D – Kelly +2 Democratic hold R 50 D 50
Georgia Warnock D – Republican candidate +1 Republican gain R 51 D 49
Nevada Cortez Masto D – Cortez Masto +2 Democratic hold R 51 D 49
New Hampshire Hassan D – Hassan +4 Democratic hold R 51 D 49
North Carolina Burr R – Burr is retiring, open seat. Republican candidate +2 Republican hold. R 51 D 49
Ohio – Portman R – Portman is retiring, open seat. Republican candidate +2 Republican hold. R 51 D 49
Pennsylvania Toomey R – Toomey is retiring, open seat. Democratic candidate +2 Democratic gain R 50 D 50
Wisconsin Johnson R – Democratic candidate +1 Democratic gain R 49 D 51

Missouri R Blunt, Oklahoma R Inhofe, Vermont, D Leahy are retiring, these open seats may make my watch list if they become competitive later. The Democrats are looking at taking a 51-49 advantage.

House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 222 Democrats, 213 Republicans. The GOP needs a net gain of 5 seats to take control of the House. As of 1 May 2022, 46 states have completed their redistricting. 395 districts out of the 435 are completed leaving 40 remaining. New York (26) along with Missouri (8), Kansas (4) and New Hampshire (2).

Out of the 395 newly drawn districts, there are 39 competitive, switchable, at risk districts. Currently held by 29 Democrats and 10 Republicans. Safe seats as of 1 May 2022, 164 Democratic, 191 Republican. Probable net gain using only the 46 states with their new redrawn districts, is a Republican gain of 12-15 seats. Which would give the GOP control of the house with the majority over the Democrats somewhere between 225-210 to 228-207. Keep in mind when New York, Kansas, Missouri and New Hampshire complete their new maps, it will change the above once they completed drawing their new maps.

I’ve been saying all along that the projected losses for this year’s midterms for the democrats make no historical sense when looking at Biden’s low approval numbers at around 40%. Hence, I put the history in writing. Here’s a list of presidents whose approval rating was around 40% for a midterm election. President, year, approval percentage, house seats lost, senate seats lost. Historical average for 4 presidents excluding Biden since his midterm hasn’t happened yet. Approval average, 39.25% house seats lost 48.5, senate seats lost 6.

Biden 2022 41% ?????? projected loss of 12-15 house seats, gain of 1 senate seat as of 1 May
Trump 2018 40% lost 44 house seats, 3 senate seats
Obama 2010 42% lost 63 house seats, 6 senate seats
G.W. Bush 2006 33% lost 33 house seats, 6 senate seats
Bill Clinton 1994 42% lost 54 house seats, 9 senate seats

I keep coming back to this as it has me frustrated, flabbergasted, astonished at the projected numbers for Biden and company. There’s no historical reference to place or compare this year’s numbers to. Fact is, they make no sense to me. A red wave should be in the offering. So far, it isn’t. Is it today’s modern political era of polarization, the great divide and the super, mega, ultra-high partisanship? Is it Trump or something else I can’t get my head around? Or a combination of many things?

Or possibility more time is needed for the projections to catch up with Biden and company’s low approval numbers? Time seems to be a good answer. No candidates have been chosen yet; the primaries haven’t begun. Redistricting isn’t completed. Time could be an answer, then again, maybe not. Only time will tell. In the meanwhile, I’ll try to figure out why all of this bothers me so much. Truth be told, it’s not normal. Then again, we’re not living in normal times, are we?

I see a political Mt. St Helens. A lot of noise and some press coverage.

It's not that I don't give a f*ck. It's that I have no control over events and coming here to vent and panic doesn't affect the outcome a bit. I'd rather address actual politics than making daily doomsday predictions.

I'm sorry that I don't share your fear. I'm sorry that I see no reason to panic or call every political opponent a Nazi or a fascist. I just don't get that wound up over sh*t I can't control.
I don't get angry over every little thing I see in the news.

But by all means, if it makes you happy to be angry and scared all the time then be my guest.

Just don't expect me to join you in those cold uncomfortable waters. I see nothing but a bright future ahead with a few bumps along the way.

By the way, did you honestly think Mt. St. Helens was a nothingburger?
OMG you couldn't possibly be more mistaken if that's the case.

You may be right. Most people remained blissfully unaware of just how devastating and widespread the destruction of St. Helens was - it didn't happen to them, so what do they care? To those it affected, it was pretty profound and life-altering.

To be fair, not all opponents are fascists, but I do think it is appropriate to note it when they are. Trumpists are fascists (as J.D. Vance acknowledged before he joined the Nazi party), even if some of them don't realize it (others are perfectly comfortable with it). Nor do most Republicans realize that their party is abetting a fascist takeover. Many in the Nazi party didn't realize it either. Some paid for their lives over it.

At what point, my friend, are fear and anger appropriate? I am personally very angry about some things, and I intend to do something about it. I will be joining protests over Roe and LGBTQ rights. I am contributing to those causes. When it comes time, I will put my body where my mouth (or keyboard, as the case may be) is. I will be campaigning this year, when the time comes. I admit, in my neck of the woods I am in the majority, anyway, but I may be moving out into the hinterlands. Armed, of course.

In politics? Never. Be smart always. Fear and anger accomplish nothing.

But as I said, if you enjoy being goaded into fear and anger by political theater and the media, then have at it. The sky might certainly fall someday and it's never too early to run around shouting warnings in all directions.

But if you don't mind, I'm going to remain calm and see what actually happens.

Name the cities that were destroyed and covered under meters of volcanic ash...

Which cities were destroyed by mudslides...?

Now you're only arguing location.

Just got word that Florida’s new redistricting map has been rejected. I don’t have any particulars on this yet. But Florida is back to the drawing board. This leaves 5 states to complete the redistricting process, Florida, New York, Kansas, Missouri and New Hampshire.