Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Constitutional Issues It happened! No more Roe

I have been working my way through this screed opinion, but it is a hard and disgusting slog, kinda like trying to find your keys that got dropped in the garbage can. The appendix is probably the most appalling. He cites every abortion law from the 19th Century without acknowledging why those laws were passed. I'll give you a hint - slavery was still legal, then, too. This is extremely dangerous stuff, but shows the utter extremity of Alito.

I will note, however, that it is unlikely this opinion will be the final one issued by the Court (although it may be). This was a February 10 First Draft. Those almost always get greatly modified, and often the "majority coalition" which initially voted is broken into factions. I think there will be at least 3 opinions. One (Alito, Thomas, Barrett, Kavanaugh) will seek to overrule Roe and Casey entirely, on the basis in this opinion. I think Gorsuch and Roberts will be in the middle, with a concurrence, arguing for only the narrowing of Roe and Casey, but upholding the law in question. And, of course, at least one vigorous dissent, although the issue may inspire multiple separate dissents.

What is breathtaking is the temerity and mendacity of this opinion. Alito claims this is "only about abortion," but everyone knows that is a lie, obviously, just as Barrett and Kavanaugh lied directly in the face of everyone about "respecting precedent" in their confirmation hearings. They knew why they were picked, and this is just the start. The basis for this opinion is the same basis for Dred Scott and other mendacious decisions of the past - we have the authority, so we'll dictate the outcome. They do not believe in the 9th Amendment, the 14th Amendment, or in "equal rights," at all. As was listed above, "LGBT" rights, contraception, and any other "privacy interests" are on the chopping block (except for corporations).

He also quoted a 17th century jurist who was famous for putting women to death as witches. Yeah, he's a whackjob alright.

Not sure if you've seen or heard the innumerable and humorous "Florida Man" memes, but I assure you this was not a personal attack on you just because you live in Florida.

It's a variation on a theme, or "meme" and nothing more.
It was a joke.

"Florida Man" meme on Wikipedia

Also...I am not a biblical character.

This ruling is an attack on privacy. THAT is what Roe is about.

Then there is the issue of “abortion is not in the Constitution.”

Welp neither are owning AR-15s and Corporations are people, my friend. Neither of those concepts are there either.

This decision will drive a blue wave in November. The House has already passed legislation to codify abortion, only the Senate is needed now. A blue wave will add more Dem Senators and we won’t need DINOs. Sinema and Manchin. THEN Joe can pass ALL of his Agenda.

I would not be too surprised if we see some lawsuits against states that force women to carry to term. Not many people know this but carrying to term and giving birth is over 50 times more dangerous than any abortion. When you look at medication-induced abortions it goes WAY WAY up. It might actually be infinite, because medication-induced abortion is so safe.

There could be a counter argument because women could simply choose not to have sex, but here's where the lack of exceptions for rape and most incest cases falls apart. The state is forcing those innocent victims to take part in a dangerous medical experiment that may cost them their lives.

I think you can dream, but I think abortion for the most part is already baked in. Those who rank abortion at near the top of their issues in determining how they'll vote, pro-choice already vote democratic, pro-life Republican. As for your blue wave, the question is if the SCOTUS overturns Roe, will the abortion issue among independents rise above rising prices, empty store shelves, thinning to flat wallets, inflation and the economy in general? Today, prior to the release of the draft among independents 38% list the economy, inflation as their most important issue, 4% list abortion. Those numbers need to change for a blue wave. I don't know if they will or won't. Time will provide that answer.

Has anyone else thought about the leaked draft as being a trial baloon? Both parties do that all the time when they're thinking about doing something or proposing legislation or something akin to that. To fire off a trial baloon to see how the public will react before doing anything? Perhaps that is the cynic in me. But it's the first thing I thought of.

I live here Jeffery, I'm well aware of the Florida man memes. While they may not seem like an attack to you, I am a Florida man and they feel like an attack to me.

I disagree here. As a political football yes. But as a health care issue, it doesn't just go away.

There will be ugly repercussions and there will be lawsuits. But Amazon, among other corporations, said they would reimburse travel expenses for an employee who had to go out of state for a medical procedure...so there will be workarounds. Teen pregnancies are down so perhaps there won't be too many young women harmed or killed by this before it ultimately gets straightened out.

But I think this sends ripples into the independent ranks as well as the partisans.

No, but it will help to limit the losses to exactly the margins we've been predicting for months.

Even if it's not true.

Supreme court justices have a lot of time on their hands, they only hear a few cases a year and the rest of the time sit around dreaming of opinions they might like to write. Maybe sometimes they actually write them...and maybe they somehow got leaked...

Who knows...?

But it's gonna cause a sh*tstorm for a while and will be an overall positive for Democrats.

Today, I'm focused on the midterms. The politics of it all, who'll it will help or hurt. Not the medical.That will come later if the SCOTUS does strike down Roe. I'm leaning toward a trial baloon now. Although I'm far from sure and wouldn't bet a nickle on it.

How that s*** storm will affect the midterms remains to be seen. According to Gallup, very in-depth report, those who are pro-choice and or pro-life are evenly divided. 49-47. 2nd graph. There a ton of information in their report or poll, history galore.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/1576/abortion.aspx

The group to watch in my opinion is the 32% who believe abortion should be legal, but only in limited circumstances. Rape, incest, life of the mother, maybe a couple of other excepts, but not everyone for any reason group. Only 19% believe abortion should be illegal in all circumstances. That’s a small group. What I need to determine is how much importance this group of 32% place on abortion vs. other issues especially inflation, rising prices, etc. Like the 1-6 hearings, I don’t think this will be the panacea the democrats think it will be. As for Abrams running on the leaked draft, that’s fine. But I think she is doing nothing more than speaking to the choir, energizing her existing base. Nothing wrong with that if it gets them to the polls. My question is how many independents will change their mind or decide to vote for her because of abortion? I don’t think it will be many. Rising prices, inflation, thinning to flat wallets is where their attention is. In other words, this may be baked in already with a handful changing their minds. Time will tell.