I agree again to a degree. I divide independents into three groups or categories, independents lean democratic, independents lean republican and independents with no leans, which I call pure or true independents. Independents never come close to voting in their numbers or percentage of the electorate. In 2020 for example, according to Gallup, independents made up 40% of the electorate, but only 24% of those who actually voted. Which makes sense since Republicans and Democrats own the horses, independents don’t. They’re just casual fans who decide which horse to root for, bet on.
I’m keeping a close eye on the generic congressional ballot to see if the needle moves any. Although it probably is a waste of time until the polls catch up with the release of the draft. About a week from now. Then give it another couple of weeks to see if the polls revert to where they were prior to the release. Which is usually what happens. In a month from now, I look again to see how much of an effect the leaked draft had on the voters. Only 4% of independents listed abortion as an issue that will determine their vote, pre-draft, that is another number I’ll be watching.
I’m back to time will tell. It certainly will let us know what direction all of this is taking us.
