Right now, I’m sitting back, relaxed, drinking some ice coffee waiting for new numbers, polls to come out in the Generic Congressional Ballot category. I’d say by Monday or Tuesday, we’ll have an early idea of whether there’s been a shift or not. On 1 May the SCOTUS draft was leaked. On 2 May 2022, RCP averages of all the recent polls had Republican congressional candidate at 46.5%-42.5% over the Democratic congressional candidates. Nate Silver’s 538 had their generic congressional ballot at 45.2-42.8 Republican. These are starting numbers to watch incase the needle moves and in what direction.
I’m also taking life easy waiting on New York, Missouri, New Hampshire and Kansas to complete their redistricting so I can determine the number of safe seats each party has and how many competitive, at risk, switchable seats there are for the upcoming midterms. The competitive, at risk seats are currently held by 29 Democrats and 10 Republicans. Safe seats as of 5 May 2022, 164 Democratic, 191 Republican.
The senate races have been a bore. But that will change as candidates are chosen by both parties. Today, the tossup states are Democratic held Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. Republican tossups Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The democrats have a slight advantage in Democratic held New Hampshire while the GOP has a slight advantage in Republican held North Carolina. The rest look safe or solid for the party that now holds them.
These are the numbers to watch over the next couple to three weeks to determine whether the leaked draft benefited the Democrats and if so, whether it was a lot or minimal. Then we’ll take a look a month from now to see if all these numbers reverted back to pre-leak draft numbers as is usually the case. Americans have short memories. I also think more are worried about rising prices, empty store shelves, inflation than abortion. Now I could be wrong about that. I doubt it. I think Inflation will be with us for the long haul. Abortion is today's hot topic, it will probably have cooled come November.
Time will tell and privde the answers.
