Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Constitutional Issues It happened! No more Roe

Sooner than that Greger.


* Impeach Kavenaugh for lying during his confirmation hearing that Roe is settled law.
* Impeach Gorsuch for lying during his confirmation hearing that Roe is settled law.
* Impeach Barrett for lying during her confirmation hearing that Roe is settled law.
* Impeach Thomas for a long history of conflicts of interest in the service of a right-wing agenda and mixing his powerful role with his conservative political activism.

Infor for Rick, so you view of a decent American is one who has the same political beliefs as you. These numbers are prior to the abortion draft release. It’s takes a week for the polls to catch up to that. Now I’d tag this, save it. Look at it again in a week’s time to see what has changed. Has the release of the draft changed any opinions on how they plan on voting?

1 Politico/Moring consult shows a dead head in the Generic congressional vote 43-43. But RCP averages of all recent polls shows the GOP ahead 46.7 to 42.9 for you to use to place Politico/morning consult in context with the rest.

https://assets.morningconsult.com/w...2204195_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v2_SH.pdf

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

Independents per Politico poll are planning on voting Republican by a 31-26 margin. Independent men going GOP 33-26 and independent women 27-26. RCP averages shows a 45-40 margin toward the GOP. RCP doesn’t break their independent vote via gender.

Although Politico doesn’t break down the suburban vote via gender. It does show the Suburbs planning on voting Republican 45-40 Republican. RCP averages doesn’t break it down into Urban, suburban and rural.

2 Issue of importance in determining how one votes.

All voters rate the economy, taxes, wages, jobs, inflation at 41%, Women’s issues are at 6% which include health care, abortion etc. Independents put all economic issues at 47%, women’s health issues at 6%. Among independent women, the economic issues fall to 41%, women’s health issues rise to 11%

I think you need to realize each individual places the amount of importance on certain issues differently. Usually an individual most important issue is one that affects them personally. This applies mostly to swing or independent voters. For the most part those who identify with either major party will vote for their party’s candidate regardless of how an issue affects them. An example 34% of all voters give Biden an approval on the economy, 60% disapprove. Democrats 64% approve/28% disapprove. Independents 24% approve, 67% disapprove and Republicans 9% approve, 89% disapprove. You couldn’t have a better example as to how party affiliation affects one’s view on the issues.

I haven't heard any plans to impeach any SCOTUS Justices...perhaps you have info I'm not privy to...?

Or perhaps you are simply dreaming up impossible schemes that are never going to happen.

This is an opinion piece from Politico, a web site I have great respect for. It is one of the most unbiased sites much like RCP and 538. Otherwise I wouldn’t pay much if any attention to an opinion piece. But it does hit home on Roe.

POLITICS Opinion | Abortion Might Not Be the Wedge Issue It Used to Be

https://www.politico.com/news/magaz...ssue-partisan-democrats-turnout-00030129

This from the article seems to confirm my belief that abortion is already baked in. I believe that the answer to that question is true, that most folks have done exactly that.

After decades of abortion litmus tests for candidates, what if the vast majority of voters already changed parties at some point to align with their beliefs on abortion or aligned their beliefs with their party’s increasingly firm ideological stand on the issue?

Also, record high voter turnout hasn’t always benefited the Democrats as I pointed out in previous posts. The Republicans benefited from record high turnouts in Virginia and in New Jersey last year. A record high turnout helped Biden win the presidency, but it also helped the GOP gain 13 house seats, a governorship and 2 state legislatures in the same election. A record number of ticket splitters in 2020. Approximately 7 million. Those who voted for Biden, against Trump, then voted Republican down ballot. Perhaps to hold Biden and the Democratic agenda in check. History shows that high voter turnout always benefited the party out of power. Mainly because the party in power did something to make the voters angry.

So it's locked in with the partisan voters since it's been a political football for five decades but we already knew how they would vote anyway.

Yet at the same time, you insist that independents have no interest in partisan legislation from the bench striking down half a century of settled law just to own the libs? I suggest that a lot of independent women, bartenders, retail workers, food processors et al will get off the couches in November and make their voices heard.

Maybe just a slight statistical uptick and not enough to affect the outcomes, but I suspect it will be there nonetheless.

Every election has surprises...some happy, most not.

I agree again to a degree. I divide independents into three groups or categories, independents lean democratic, independents lean republican and independents with no leans, which I call pure or true independents. Independents never come close to voting in their numbers or percentage of the electorate. In 2020 for example, according to Gallup, independents made up 40% of the electorate, but only 24% of those who actually voted. Which makes sense since Republicans and Democrats own the horses, independents don’t. They’re just casual fans who decide which horse to root for, bet on.

I’m keeping a close eye on the generic congressional ballot to see if the needle moves any. Although it probably is a waste of time until the polls catch up with the release of the draft. About a week from now. Then give it another couple of weeks to see if the polls revert to where they were prior to the release. Which is usually what happens. In a month from now, I look again to see how much of an effect the leaked draft had on the voters. Only 4% of independents listed abortion as an issue that will determine their vote, pre-draft, that is another number I’ll be watching.

I’m back to time will tell. It certainly will let us know what direction all of this is taking us.

Imagine we're talking about Dred Scott right now INSTEAD of Roe and people are on the news telling each other that black people and their friends in the other racial communities that America will normalize Dred seven months from now. Do you really think people would forget?

That's what Republican "strategists" are saying right now, the American people will "forget all about the attack on Roe by November and that Republicans will sail on to easy victory in the House and Senate.

Right now, I’m sitting back, relaxed, drinking some ice coffee waiting for new numbers, polls to come out in the Generic Congressional Ballot category. I’d say by Monday or Tuesday, we’ll have an early idea of whether there’s been a shift or not. On 1 May the SCOTUS draft was leaked. On 2 May 2022, RCP averages of all the recent polls had Republican congressional candidate at 46.5%-42.5% over the Democratic congressional candidates. Nate Silver’s 538 had their generic congressional ballot at 45.2-42.8 Republican. These are starting numbers to watch incase the needle moves and in what direction.

I’m also taking life easy waiting on New York, Missouri, New Hampshire and Kansas to complete their redistricting so I can determine the number of safe seats each party has and how many competitive, at risk, switchable seats there are for the upcoming midterms. The competitive, at risk seats are currently held by 29 Democrats and 10 Republicans. Safe seats as of 5 May 2022, 164 Democratic, 191 Republican.

The senate races have been a bore. But that will change as candidates are chosen by both parties. Today, the tossup states are Democratic held Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. Republican tossups Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The democrats have a slight advantage in Democratic held New Hampshire while the GOP has a slight advantage in Republican held North Carolina. The rest look safe or solid for the party that now holds them.

These are the numbers to watch over the next couple to three weeks to determine whether the leaked draft benefited the Democrats and if so, whether it was a lot or minimal. Then we’ll take a look a month from now to see if all these numbers reverted back to pre-leak draft numbers as is usually the case. Americans have short memories. I also think more are worried about rising prices, empty store shelves, inflation than abortion. Now I could be wrong about that. I doubt it. I think Inflation will be with us for the long haul. Abortion is today's hot topic, it will probably have cooled come November.

Time will tell and privde the answers.

Google SCOTUS impeachment. There are drives and petitions.