What I give you, based on available number is if the election were held today. So far as to the leaked draft, all rants and raves with no movement on the numbers. That could change or maybe it won’t. We still have 4 states that haven’t completed their redistricting. So, the numbers are based on 395 districts, races, elections, etc. instead of 435. That translate today into a net gain of 12-15 seats for the GOP. Out of those 395 districts, 42 are competitive, switchable, at risk districts. Currently held by 31 Democrats and 11 Republicans. Safe seats as of 10 May 2022, 163 Democratic, 190 Republican. But New York 26, Missouri 8, Kansas 4 and New Hampshire 2, haven’t completed their redistricting yet.
I’m positive the abortion issue nor the 1-6 hearings and the official SCOTUS decision won’t affect the safe seats. They could have an affect on the competitive, at risk seats. With 20 more at risk seats than the Republicans, the democrats better hope that they do. Time will tell on that. The senate boils down to 5 pure tossup states, Democratic held Nevada, Arizona and Georgia along with 2 Republican held states, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Two other states are very close, New Hampshire where the Democrats should hold onto and North Carolina where the GOP should hold on to it. Chances are good of Nevada and Arizona staying in Democratic hands, Georgia is very iffy. The Democrats have a good shot at both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The likely outcome as of today, The Dems lose Georgia, but pickup Wisconsin and Pennsylvania for a 51-49 adavantage. Those numbers could change tomorrow.
