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REDISTRICTING/GERRYMANDERING as of 13 May 2022

Florida appealed the judge’s ruling throwing out Florida’s new congressional map. The appeal automatically puts a stay on the ruling meaning the DeSantis map is now the official redistricting map until the appeal process comes to an end. This article explains it all.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/13/florida-redistricting-case-desantis-00032483

Until the appeal process comes to an end or the stay is revoked, we now have 46 states which has completed redistricting, 4 have yet to draw their maps. The 4 states are Kansas, New York, Missouri and New Hampshire. 395 districts are now completed, leaving 40 districts to be redrawn. There are 42 competitive, switchable, at risk districts. Currently held by 31 Democrats and 11 Republicans. Safe seats as of 13 May 2022, 167 Democratic, 186 Republican.

The importance of safe seats is that they let you know how many seats from the competitive/at risk column and those districts yet to be redrawn a party must win to gain control of the House. As of today, the democrats need 51 more seats to reach the magic number of 218. The Republicans need 32. It remains to be seen how many safe seats each of the 4 remaining states add to each party’s safe seat column along with how many will go into the competitive/at risk column. The 4 remaining states are Kansas, New York, New Hampshire, and Missouri.

Centrism is also an ideology, no shame in it wherever you stand on the spectrum.

Just like skin color, gender, and sexual orientation, you're pretty much born liberal conservative, or somewhere in between.

I like my comfort zone. I’m more than willing to take small steps forward, gigantic leaps that take me out of my comfort zone tends to upset me. There’s times I’m not quite sure what I am. I do support the democrats on some issues, the GOP on others. Quite a lot of issues I just don’t give a dang. I took one of those are you a liberal or conservative test. I came out a social libertarian, whatever that is. Which simply means according to the test that on social issues, I’m on the left or liberal and on fiscal issues, right or conservative. Although I don’t think those who call themselves fiscal conservatives today are. All they believe in is low taxes. A true fiscal conservative or a traditional conservative believes in fiscal responsibility. Your revenue should match your outflow. In order to get there, if you have to raise taxes, you do it. If you have to cut spending you do it. Usually it takes both.

Most of America falls right around your comfort zone. We all want government to quietly function in the background, not ask too much of us, help us when we need it, and not get us into any wars.

An algorithm could handle most of it.

After watching Facebook's use of them, hard pass, thanks.

Yeah, an algorithm or software program. Interestingly if one adds up the percentage of votes for the down ballot offices in 2020 for the House, senate and governor races, the GOP received 47.5% to 47.3% for the Democrats. That’s about as close to being even as one can get. An algorithm that would take the wants of both parties and give each a portion of their wants according to the percentage of votes received.

That would give the Democrats half of the BBB, half of the voting rights, half of student loan etc. Outside of only wanting to stop the Democrats cold, the GOP doesn’t really want anything. But then again, they’d have stopped half of the BBB, half of voting rights, half of student loan forgiveness etc. Getting half in my opinion is much better than getting nothing which is exactly what the Democrats so far have gotten. Yeah, for sure. Let a computer algorithm run the country, a computer algorithm certain couldn’t do any worse than what we’re doing as humans now.

Crazy idea, but hey, it was your algorithm that brought out the craziness in me.

Our current algorithm is of the analog variety, laws inscribed on papyrus, etched on parchment, and carved in stone.

Perhaps computers don't belong in politics at all and we should just go back to snail mail on tramp freighters to manage the world's affairs.

I'd suggest that computers could effectively handle the redistricting tasks in a fair and equitable manner. People seem to have a really hard time behaving themselves when tasked with it.

Here’s the problem with the abortion issue, the 1-6 hearings etc. changing the dynamics of the midterms. Out of the 213 seats the Republicans currently hold 186 are in safe districts. This leaves only 27 seats that could switch. It will be even less once Kansas and Missouri complete their redistricting; I estimate 3 of the 4 Kansas seats will be safe along with 6 of Missouri’s 8 seats. That means 195 of the 213 seats currently held by the GOP will be safe, no chance of switching possible.

On the other side of the table, the Democratic safe seats are at 167, but New York which hasn’t completed their redistricting will probably add 18 more safe seats to the Democratic total bringing them up to 185. New Hampshire’s 2 seats currently held by democrats will go into the competitive, at risk column. New York will probably add 4 more safe Republican seats, Kansas will probably add 1 more safe Democratic seat with Missouri adding 2 safe Democratic seats. Bringing the total number of safe seats to 199 for the GOP vs. 188 for the Democrats. This leaves 48 at risk switchable districts of which the Democrats own 34 to the GOP’s 14. If my estimates are correct, this means the democrats can lose only 4 of their 34 at risk seats and remain in control of the house if the GOP wins all 14 of their contested seats.

Back to how the abortion issue and the 1-6 hearing. They will have no effect on safe seats, 388 has already been decided before the first vote has been cast. It’s possible these two issues could swing some of the 34 at risk Democratic seats back safely into democratic hands. The question is how many. Then could these two issues switch some of GOP held contested seats? It possible the abortion issue and the 1-6 hearings could have an impact, but it will be relative minor. When you have 20 more at risk seats than the other party with only the ability to lose 4 more than the other party loses, those aren’t good numbers.

Maybe not good numbers, but still the possibility of historically good results.

And I don't mind so much losing the House. Republicans will have some skin in the game in trying to get the economy back on track.

Or else they can Impeach Biden and act like utter fools for two years.

In your estimation how would that be liable to affect the independent vote?

If the republicans retake the house, a very good possibility, an even higher probability today. I believe they will impeach Biden on some charge. The charge will sound official and ominous, but in reality, it’s only payback for the Democrats impeaching Trump twice. The constitution gives the house the ability to determine what is or isn’t an impeachable offense.

Independents, the first Trump impeachment didn’t faze them. It was forgotten 2-3 weeks after it was over. A Biden impeachment will probably fall into the same category. They’ll be other issues that fall into the hotter category than impeachment. I’d say it’s the same with the 1-6 hearings, to a good many independents what happened 16 months ago is ancient history. Few care outside of some independents that lean Democratic along with the Democratic base of course.

You’ll have a stalemate between Biden and the GOP controlled house. I’d say most independents will still look at Biden when it comes to the economy. He’s in charge and he has the highest profile. That can work for the Democrats or against the Democrats. It’ll be a PR battle, Biden and company trying to convince independents the economy is still lousy because the GOP controlled House wouldn’t institute any of his ideas and or programs to get the economy rocking and rolling again. While the Republicans will place 100% of the blame on Biden. That if there were a Republican president, the economy would be booming. Then you have whatever other issues will become hot. Truman campaigned against a do-nothing congress and that worked. Obama tried to tie the Republican house for his inability to get anything accomplished, that failed. Obama spent his last six year defending the ACA, outside of executive orders, he got or accomplished not a single thing in his last six years.