It’s been two weeks since the leaked draft on abortion. For all the hell being raised about it, there has been no significant changes to the generic congressional ballot.

2 May 2022 Generic congressional ballot, RCP averages 46.5-42.5, Republican, 538 averages 45.2-42.8 Republican
9 May 2022 Generic congressional ballot, RCP averages 46.4-43.2 Republican, 538 averages 45.4-42.8 Republican
16 May 2022 Generic congressional ballot, RCP averages 46.8-43.3 Republican, 538 averages 45.5-43.0 Republican

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/

We haven’t seen any significant movement on President’s overall job performance since the leak either.

2 May 2022 Biden’s overall job performance, 41.7% approve, 53.0% disapprove
9 May 2022 Biden’s overall job performance, 42.3% approve, 52.9% disapprove
16 May 2022 Biden’s overall job performance, 41.6% approve, 53.4% disapprove

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html

Two weeks after the leaked draft, the polls have been stagnate. No movement one way or the other to speak of. Which brings me back to my original theory of abortion being already baked in. That over the last 50 years those who are pro-choice have migrated to the Democratic Party and those pro-lifers to the GOP. You also have a bunch in the middle who don’t give abortion much thought, if any. It’s those who abortion is a very hot issue have already sided with the party that holds their view on this issue. Which could mean all the ruckus and protests won’t affect how folks vote in the midterms much. Those folks’ votes were already determined. I’ll give it another week or two, then move on to the next issue. Most likely the 1-6 public hearings, but I don’t expect much movement there either. Inflation, rising prices is the most important issue to swing voters, not abortion, not the 1-6 hearings when it comes to deciding who they’ll vote for in November. At least as of today, it is.


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.