Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Gerrymandering

----Until they try it again, this time in state capitals around the country.

It's a ways off yet, but I'm thinking we won't see a lot of improvement in the economy before November.

But by November of 2024 things should be mostly evened out, Biden might even be a hero of sorts if he gets credit for it. It's not as though any of this sh*tstorm is really his fault.

My model says that independents will be mildly pissed if Republicans interfere with the business of getting inflation under control by concentrating on revenge for Trump's mistreatment by Democrats.

They booted Trump because they were sick of his shenanigans, they still don't like Trump or his candidates. If the shenanigans start up again and owning the libs becomes the focus instead solving some problems then a clever Democratic candidate might defeat Ron DeSantis in 2024.

Jeffrey, you need to understand, to quite a lot of folks meeting their needs today is much more important than something that took place 16 months ago. They don’t have the luxury of worrying about that or even what happened yesterday. It’s today that must be gotten through. Inflation, rising prices are hurting the poorest among us and those on fixed incomes. I’d guess that most of these folks don’t give politics much thought. If they do, they keep those thoughts to themselves.

And Greger, that is a very good possibility. Inflation might be tamed by 2024. It very well could tame itself and I agree, Biden being president and the one in charge, would get the credit. That’s the way these things work. An example from the past, Carter got the blame for the misery index. Reagan was supposed to fix that, but after two years it was just as bad when he took office. Reagan was blamed in his first midterm for the sour economy that so far he failed to fix as promised. Reagan’s approval dropped from 67% down to 42%, The Republicans lost 26 house seats. But by 1984 the economy recovered, either by something Reagan did or on its own, Reagan received the credit and he beat Mondale in a landslide winning 49 states. Reagan’s approval had shot back up to 62%.

You’re also correct that independents still don’t like Trump. The best thing that could happen to the Democrats is that Trump runs again in 2024. Or if DeSantis is the GOP nominee and Trump goes and campaigns for him with his normal 4 year old spoiled brat shenanigans of name calling and throwing of temper tantrums along with Trump’s 3rd grade schoolyard bullying tactics, I think about any democrat that is a bit political savvy and knows how to move toward the center during the general election campaign would win. If it isn’t Harris who is disliked by independents more than Trump.

Selfish people who hate democracy. Let me guess...they live in red states. Amiright?

It's interesting how you framed the attempted insurrection and coup as "something that took place."

THAT says a lot.

I try to look for a possible way through this mess. It's like a very complicated video game, with lots of competing factions. But if things fall together in just the right way, then victory can be had!

For me that means a sort of Global Utopian Social Democracy.

REDISTRICTING/GERRYMANDERING as of 17 May 2022

I have my doubts redistricting will ever be completed. Florida’s new map has been rejected for a second time as the stay was removed. See Below. This brings us back down to 45 states which has officially completed their redistricting. That is baring any new decisions on previous lawsuits that were filed. The 5 states left are now Florida, Kansas, New York, Missouri and New Hampshire. 367 districts are now completed, leaving 71 districts to be redrawn. There are 39 competitive, switchable, at risk districts. Currently held by 29 Democrats and 10 Republicans. Safe seats as of 17 May 2022, 161 Democratic, 167 Republican.

The importance of safe seats is that they let you know how many seats from the competitive/at risk column and those districts yet to be redrawn a party must win to gain control of the House. As of today, the democrats need 57 more seats to reach the magic number of 218. The Republicans need 51. It remains to be seen how many safe seats each of the 5 remaining states add to each party’s safe seat column along with how many will go into the competitive/at risk column. The 5 remaining states are Florida, Kansas, New York, New Hampshire, and Missouri.

The latest in Florida
MAY 17, 2022

A judge lifted a stay in a lawsuit against Gov. Ron DeSantis’s congressional map, ordering the state to use a new map that largely restores the configuration of the existing 5th Congressional District. The map had previously been ordered last Wednesday, May 11, but the ruling had been placed on hold after the Florida Secretary of State appealed it.

The biggest issue at hand was how DeSantis’s maps treated the 5th District. Running from Jacksonville to Tallahassee, this district was specifically created to enhance the representation of Black voters in northern Florida — but DeSantis has called it illegal. The judge who ordered the new map (a DeSantis and Rick Scott appointee) said DeSantis’s map was “unconstitutional because it diminishes African Americans’ ability to elect candidates of their choice.”

For now, plaintiffs were focusing specifically on getting the North Florida part of the map struck down in time for the 2022 elections, but in the longer term, the entire map is under legal challenge over its pro-Republican bias and dilution of Black voting power. The map has an efficiency gap of R+20 and would create four new Republican-leaning seats at the expense of three highly competitive ones. If the map is used in the 2022 election, Republicans would likely flip the Democratic-held 5th, 7th and 13th districts as well as gain a new member in the 15th District, which was added to the state’s tally by the 2020 census.

The map was first enacted in April after a drawn-out standoff between DeSantis and Republicans in the legislature. At first, legislators proposed and passed new congressional maps that had only mild Republican biases and would preserve a predominantly Black 5th District, which they argued was required by the Florida Constitution. But DeSantis insisted on a map that maximized the number of Republican seats and eliminated the predominantly Black 5th, which he said violated the 14th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution.

The legislature passed a compromise between its and DeSantis’s positions, but DeSantis stood firm and vetoed it. Eventually, the legislature acceded to DeSantis’s demands and passed his proposed map in a special session. The vote came amid a sit-in from Democratic legislators who were protesting the map’s treatment of Black voters and argued that DeSantis had overstepped his authority by proposing his own map.

Apparently Pennsylvania voters are very bitter about the state of affairs - first giving Trump a chance (their first mistake ), then switching to ol’ Joe and now bitter because of inflation.

What kind of moron blames the US government for a global inflation situation? Apparently many folks have the intelligence of an earthworm and can't analyze their way out of a paper bag . Must be all of that incest and inbreeding they’re so fond of…

Mebbe these pro-Russia idiots should place blame where it belongs and blame their buddy Vlad for his asinine attack on Ukraine for an increase in gas and wheat prices for one.

There’s no doubt in my mind that inflation, the economy in general is cyclic. You’re going to have good times and bad times, it’s the luck of draw in which times a president is presiding over. But since the advent of this nation, when the economy is good, president take the credit. They shout at the top of their lungs it was their policies that created and kept the economy going great guns. The people buy this. On the reverse of that, presidents get the blame when the economy turns sour, inflation happens, recessions and depressions.

Because presidents love to take credit, they’re going to get blamed. If presidents stopped taking credit, maybe they wouldn’t get so much blame when the economy goes south. It all comes with being in charge, with being president. Presidential candidates campaign all the time on fixing the economy. Obama did it against Bush and the recession at the time. Maybe his policies helped some, maybe they didn’t. But the economy started to recover since he became president and he and the democrats basked in that glory. Obama saved us from a depression was the Democratic mantle. Being the cyclic nature of the economy, he just happened to be in the right place at the right time and was able to talk a great game.

Biden, he happened to be elected when inflation was on the rise. He’s the one in charge, he’s the one responsible. You’ll find no democrats defending Bush nor any Republicans defending Carter nor any Democrats defending Hoover. As president, it was their fault depressions, the misery index and the recession happen. FDR fixed it, Reagan fixed it, Obama fixed it. All basked in the glory. All took the credit.

That’s the way these things work. Whoever is president is in charge. He’ll get the credit for all good things happening even when the president had nothing to do with them happening. He’ll also get the blame for the bad things, whether or not he had a thing to do with it. Call it politics 101

Rick, Fetterman is unique. He spent a lot of time campaigning in heavily Republican areas of Pennsylvania. He’s also the present Lt. Governor of Pennsylvania, he has run a statewide campaign before. He’s also straight forward, but not an in your face progressive. Perhaps more of a TR type. I make him a favorite to win Pennsylvania’s senate seat for what that’s worth. Here’s one reason I think Fetterman will win. From the article which also update the Republican primary. The Republicans are too close to call.

“The 6-foot-9 Fetterman, who often wears shorts to campaign events and has the persona of an authentic anti-politician, topped Rep. Conor Lamb in the primary.” That's attractive to independent voters.

https://www.npr.org/2022/05/17/1099...lts-fetterman-lamb-oz-barnette-mccormick

The GOP nominated an avid Trumper for governor, Doug Mastriano. Shapiro won the democratic nomination which makes him a slight favorite come November. But keep in mind, there’s still a very long time between now and November. A lot of things can happen.

https://apnews.com/article/2022-primary-pennsylvania-governor-b4b2264b6e5574656aba8267524f15ac

I was pointing out that it's probably going to HAPPEN AGAIN...in every state capital.
The midterms may wind up being violent...possibly more violent than the Capitol Insurrection of January 6th.

We now have an actual insurrectionist who won their primary, Doug Mastroiano. He's running for Governor of Pennsylvania.
Who knows what kind of havoc he may be capable of creating during the runup to the mid-terms...sorry but I think pretending this is not a problem is the biggest mistake we can possibly make.