Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Gerrymandering

By the way...

https://twitter.com/leemillburn/status/1526869373947809793


Lee
@leemillburn
Replying to @jra4usmc and @MilesTaylorUSA

Pretty much the same inflation in Australia and we have a conservative government. If you think your President can stop global events putting pressure on prices you greatly overestimate his (and the US government’s) power.

3:16 AM · May 18, 2022·Twitter for iPhone

That may be Jeffrey. In Pennsylvania, I see Fetterman winning in the senate, a Democratic pickup. Shapira will keep the governorship in Democratic hands. Will there be riots and violence if the Republican candidates don’t win, I don’t know. But until that happens, 90% or more of folks aren’t worried about it.

The leaked abortion draft more than two weeks ago hasn’t moved the needle one bit in how folks plan on voting in November. Going by the generic congressional ballot and President Biden’s overall approval ratings. Neither has changed. I think the 1-6 public hearings will have the same results. It’s a simple question. Is abortion more important to you than inflation and meeting your and your family’s needs or will the 1-6 public hearings be more important to you than inflation and meeting your and your family’s needs? Democrats or most of them will probably answer abortion and the 1-6 hearings, Republicans will go for inflation. You left with what independents think who rank inflation as their number one, most important issue facing this nation today. Abortion ranks 8th, 1-6 doesn’t make the list of most important issues. If you look at the preferred outcomes, Independents only, House controlled by Republicans 36-27 over Democrats. If the election for congress was held today, who would you vote for, Independents only, 45% Republican candidate, 35% Democratic candidate. You’ve had between 8-12 points preference for Republican congressional candidates among independents since January 2022. Which is not surprising since inflation is their number one election issue.

REDISTRICTING/GERRYMANDERING as of 18 May 2022

Kansas has become the 46th states to complete their redistricting. The 4 states left are now Florida, New York, Missouri and New Hampshire. 371 districts are now completed, leaving 67 districts to be redrawn. There are 40 competitive, switchable, at risk districts. Currently held by 30 Democrats and 10 Republicans. Safe seats as of 18 May 2022, 161 Democratic, 170 Republican. The wildcard is Florida, 11 May a judge ruled Florida’s new map unconstitutional. Throws out Florida’s new map. 13 May DeSantis appealed the ruling and received a stay on the decision pending the hearing of an appeal. Florida’s new map now retakes effect because of the stay. 17 May, the judge removed the stay, thus throwing out Florida’s new map for a second time. Last night it seems a judge on the Florida court of appeals has now reinstated the Florida map. I’ll wait until at least tomorrow before I add Florida to my completed redistricting states. Chances are this one will be thrown out by then the way things are going in Florida.

The importance of safe seats is that they let you know how many seats from the competitive/at risk column and those districts yet to be redrawn a party must win to gain control of the House. As of today, the democrats need 57 more seats to reach the magic number of 218. The Republicans need 48. It remains to be seen how many safe seats each of the 4 remaining states add to each party’s safe seat column along with how many will go into the competitive/at risk column. The 4 remaining states are, Kansas, New York, New Hampshire, and Missouri.

That's a bold prediction and one that will either play out 6 months from now or not.

I say it's not gonna happen, elections will go off without a hitch and results will be generally accepted by all.

And that's the trouble with these doomsday conspiracy theories. The day comes and goes and doomsday is put off to the next election or the next big thing.

REDISTRICTING/GERRYMANDERING as of 18 May 2022 (UPDATED 1900hrs)

Today, Missouri has joined Kansas becoming the 46th and 47th states to complete their redistricting. The 3 states left are now Florid, New York and New Hampshire. 379 districts are now completed, leaving 59 districts to be redrawn. There are 40 competitive, switchable, at risk districts. Currently held by 30 Democrats and 10 Republicans. Safe seats as of 18 May 2022, UPDATED are 163 Democratic, 176 Republican. The wildcard is Florida, 11 May a judge ruled Florida’s new map unconstitutional. Throws out Florida’s new map. 13 May DeSantis appealed the ruling and received a stay on the decision pending the hearing of an appeal. Florida’s new map now retakes effect because of the stay. 17 May, the judge removed the stay, thus throwing out Florida’s new map for a second time. Last night it seems a judge on the Florida court of appeals has now reinstated the Florida map. I’ll wait until at least tomorrow before I add Florida to my completed redistricting states. Chances are this one will be thrown out by then the way things are going in Florida.

The importance of safe seats is that they let you know how many seats from the competitive/at risk column and those districts yet to be redrawn a party must win to gain control of the House. As of today, the democrats need 55 more seats to reach the magic number of 218. The Republicans need 42. It remains to be seen how many safe seats each of the 3 remaining states add to each party’s safe seat total.

As I wrote, the people placing inflation on the US government have the intelligence of an earthworm and are unable to analyze their way out of a paper bag.

LOL, okay. Have it your way. But the fact is that isn’t how most Americans look at it. You do know the Democrats placed all the blame for the Recession during G.W. Bush on him. Then gave Obama credit for preventing a depression. Are you telling me they had the intelligence of a earthworm? It’s standard SOP to blame the one in charge when the economy sours regardless of party or to give the one in charge all the credit when the economy is great. Politics 101

Clearly these folks you speak of struggle with the concepts of causation and object permanence a well.

re: Reagan's economy

The American economy sucked ass during Reagan's tenure in office. Bamz had to clean up the previous Republican's mess.

Forbes.com

Intellectually dishonest Republican Politics 101. Correct.