Capitol Hill Blue Forums Life and Moral Issues Religion and Philosophy Abortion

New poll: 54% of Americans disapprove of Supreme Court following Roe draft opinion leak

I agree with the above majority.

Having stated the above, I do hope the SCOTUS follows exactly the leaked draft so that states will be free to restrict abortions in order that women and those who care about freedom over one's body punishes conservatives/GOP'ers in November 2022...severely ...in those six to nine "toss up" states.

Rick, I think that a dream. There’s been no significant movement in the generic congressional ballot since the leaked abortion draft on 1 May other than the normal ups and downs of polling. I have concluded that abortion is already baked into the equation. Those who make abortion a hot issue, those who will decide how they will vote based on abortion have already moved into either the Republican or the Democratic ranks since ROE was decided some 50 years ago. Inflation, rising prices remains the number one, the most important issue in deciding how one will vote this November.

2 May 2022 Generic congressional ballot, RCP averages 46.5-42.5, Republican, 538 averages 45.2-42.8 Republican
26 May 2022 Generic congressional ballot, RCP averages 46.3-44.1 Republican, 538 averages 45.1-42.7 Republican

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/

As for the 5 tossup states in the senate, they were tossups on 1 May and are still tossups on 26 May. 3 belong to the Democrats, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia. 2 to the Republicans Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. D held New Hampshire is still lean Democratic while the R held North Carolina has changed from lean to likely Republican since the candidates where chosen in their respective primaries. R Budd has a 7.5-point lead over D Beasley in NC. All other states are considered safe or solid for the party that now holds them.

I’ll add this, the leaked draft wasn’t official. The official ruling once released may have a greater impact or not since everyone knows which way the SCOTUS is leaning. If the SCOTUS limits its ruling to the Mississippi lawsuit as it should, then all this ruckus, rants and raves will be much ado about nothing. If the SCOTUS does overturn ROE, that impact will be much less than it would have had without the leak. Many are expecting the overturning of ROE. The bottom line in my estimation is the overturning of ROE if it happens, won’t prevent the loss of the house. I’m not sure if it would have any effect on the tossup states in the senate. But it wouldn’t have to have a large effect, a minor one could make the difference as those tossup states are as close as close can be.

I disagree. If the SCOTUS does overturn ROE, forcing women to be birthing vessels will severely impact the November 2022 election. It's common sense. You don't need a poll for that.

We'll see Rick. I got plenty of time and can wait until November. But today, I personally think abortion is baked into the equation as all the avid pro-choicer’s are now democrats and the avid pro-lifers Republicans. They've had 50 years to move into their respective parties that agree on their abortion stances. Today, 20% of all Americans list the economy, inflation as the their number one issue on determining their vote this November. 6% list the abortion issue as their number one issue on determining their vote come the midterms. That's over 3 times as many people that will base their vote on inflation than abortion. Although we don't know how many of the 6% list abortion as their number one issue are pro-life and how many are pro-choice. What we do know is

But that can be broken down via party, Inflation as the number one issue in determining one’s vote, 10% Democratic, 24% Republican, 22% independent. Abortion as the number one issue in determining one’s vote for the midterms, 11% Democratic, 7% Republican, 6% independent. Since Gallup list party affiliation as being even as of April, no new party affiliation figures for May yet. The most important numbers here are independents, 22% voting on the economy, inflation vs. 6% voting on abortion. 43% of independents stating they’ll vote for the Republican congressional candidate vs. 34% for the Democratic congressional candidates. Which lines up to inflation being the number one, most important issue facing this country today.

These number as usual are dynamic and change constantly. You know I’ll be keeping a very close eye on all of this. Especially if the SCOTUS does overturn ROE. If the SCOTUS doesn’t, all of this is for nothing.

All the overturning of ROE does is leave abortion to the states. It doesn't ban abortion nationwide. Although some states may ban abortion within their state. The results remain to be seen.

Do you actually think that women are just going to be ok being told they have to give birth and have no say in the matter? What does common sense say?

You’re missing the point Rick. Those women who rank abortion at the top of their list of reasons to vote are already Democrats. They’re not Republicans. These women plan on voting Democratic already. They’re already included in the generic congressional ballot as voting Democratic. Women, regardless of party, 44% plan on voting Democratic, 41% Republican, the rest not sure or undecided.

The question then comes from those undecided women voters, which issue is more important to them in deciding how’ll they vote? Is it inflation or is it abortion? As of 24 may, women answer 18% inflation 11% abortion. The remaining 71% of women have other issues more important than either inflation or abortion. Again, polls are only good as far as they go. No one asked which side of the abortion issue those 11% of women who rank abortion as their most important are. You can be sure it’s not all 11% that are pro-choice, some of them are pro-life. The break down, your guess is as good as mine.

The difference between us is I think the abortion issue is already baked into the equation for the midterms. You think abortion will be a game changer. The answer lies in the future which one of us is correct. Abortion would have to be one huge game changer to overcome this:

The Democrats currently have 39 Democratic held seats in the at risk, competitive switchable column vs. 13 Republican held seats as of 26 May. Out of those 39 currently held Democratic seats, 6 are likely to switch to the GOP, then there are the 23 Democratic held seats in the pure tossup category with the remaining 10 in the lean Democratic column which they should retain although those 10 are competitive seats. Of the 13 held Republican seats, 1 seat is likely to switch to the democrats, 9 are in the pure tossup column and the remaining 3 seats in the lean Republican column which they should retain. Just counting the likely to switch seats, 6 democratic minus 1 republican equal 5. The number of net gain seats the GOP needs to take control of the house. If you split the pure tossup seats, 12 of the 23 Democratic goes to the GOP and 4 of the GOP tossups go to the Democrats, that adds another 8 seats to the 5 for a net gain of 13. This isn’t taking the generic congressional ballot into consideration which the Republicans lead, chances are the GOP will gain more than just 13, I’d make a gain of 18-20 using my matrix.

The senate is different considering only 5 states could switch hands. One Pennsylvania looks like a switch from GOP to the Democrats. The remaining 4 are pure tossups, 3 democratic held and 1 GOP held. If the Republicans can win one of the Democrats remaining 3 pure tossups and retain GOP held Wisconsin, you’re looking at another 50-50 tie.

You might be surprised how many women are pro-life, Rick.

Pretty much all the Republican women are. Common sense told us women would never vote for the p*ssy grabbing Trump...yet here we are.

Common sense said they'd elect Clinton. They didn't.

Democratic women will vote for Democrats because they are pro-choice. A few independent women who might not have voted will get off their couches because of this and vote for Democrats. But about half of independent women are also pro-life so there isn't liable to be a massive surge of them.

This is the sort of thing buffering Democrats from a red wave. This is a much-needed safety valve but it isn't going to blow the economy out of the water as the most critical issue to voters.
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Abortion is a lousy political thing for either party. They both have members for, against, kinda, almost, maybe, and perhaps. Both sides a loud but, in the end ..............

It's a political football. Like gun control, healthcare and other political footballs that are always getting kicked around.

I know Republican women who rallied for abortion rights. But they will still vote Republican because it isn't a deal-breaker for them. They didn't like Trump, but he wasn't a deal-breaker for them until perhaps, they tired of him and voted for Biden but Republican down the ballot...

By the same token, I imagine there are pro-life Democrats(like Catholics) who would rather Dems were more pro-life but it isn't a deal-breaker for them either.

Both parties take absolutist stances, most people are somewhere in between.

Perhaps women will need to adapt to the current political situation just as women(and men) have adapted to survive under all sorts of harsh conditions in the past...

Greger, you’re much like me. You take the reality of the situation and go from there without letting emotion take over. I totally agree with what you said in your last two posts. You said the same thing I was trying, but in a lot less words.

I don’t think the Democrats like pro-life democrats. At least elected, incumbent, democratic house representatives that are pro-life. The Democrats defeated 3 of them in 2020 in their democratic primaries only to lose all 3 seats that if those pro-life incumbent democrats had run would have won. What that has done to the overall picture of this year’s midterms is that the GOP needs a net gain of 5 instead of 8. I’d say the democrats shot themselves in the foot with their pro-choice litmus test. That’s just my opinion

I’m more of an election strategist, a pragmatist, even a compromiser if that is what it takes to get me at least some of what I want. I’m no stand on my principle with the all or none options which none usually is the results. It’s not that I prefer the real world to my fantasy one, but I’m smart enough to realize which one I must live in and make the best of it.