Capitol Hill Blue Forums Life and Moral Issues Religion and Philosophy Abortion

I have been saying, and repeating, that BOTH sides have have any number of conditions when it comes to abortions. There is no question about that one. The problem, again, on both sides, is that each is going all out for the most extreme solution. I know, the politicians are trying. The problem is with the marchers. They march, and carry their signs and their signs are rarely in the middle but favor anything that goes as far as possible on their side.

The Republicans are actually doing a slightly better job in that they actually have a message. The Dems, on the other side, have no message. Their plan seems to be to tell everybody the Republicans are all bad including their stance on Abortion whilst they are in favor of Abortion.

When it comes to what the sides are peddling its pretty clear. The right - NO! The left - YES! I have said it before. Abortion is pesky and no matter where the parties stand you can bet that its unlikely that any stand is one that wins!
My own thought is that the Democratic stance should actually be; "We are all waiting until the Supremes actually rule on abortion. After that we will support the right for Abortion if Abortion ends up in the hands of the states. (then just let it be while trying to calm down the marching signs).

I am probably wrong. I would also love to see the Dems actually sit down, determine what all their members can support and then SUPPORT THAT! Right now not even the Dems themselves know what they actually are for or against in any degree and that too costs them votes.

Nobody is really in favor of abortion, except maybe some ultra-libertarian nutjobs who would require abortion unless the parents posted a $200,000 bond to prevent taxpayers from footing the bill. A few Democrats favor abortion on demand right up until birth, but that is a very tiny percentage. The vast majority favor abortion when medically necessary, plus maternal choice with reasonable time limits. (In other words: Roe v Wade) So claiming Democrats are all over the place on it, while Republicans all want no exception no abortion, is just wrong. Most Republicans actually DO want reasonable exceptions.

This is why the potential for backlash is so high. These laws being passed in some states will kill a lot of pregnant women if Roe goes away. That's a very hard legislative record to hide from.

And they can just blame Democrats. None of it makes sense because it's not SUPPOSED to make sense, just "Those horrible subhumans did this....KILLLLLL THEM!"

It’s been three weeks since the leaked draft on abortion. Finally, a bit of movement toward the democrats. But only on RCP and it was but a single point, 538 doesn’t show any movement at all. Impossible to tell if this slight movement in RCP’s numbers was caused by the abortion issue or is just the normal ups and downs of polling. Probably more the latter. Remember, this is dynamic and changes all the time. The fact we’ve had so little movement over this time period reinforces my theory of the abortion issue being baked in. Inflation is still the elephant in the room. At least when it comes to voting in the midterms.

2 May 2022 Generic congressional ballot, RCP averages 46.5-42.5, Republican, 538 averages 45.2-42.8 Republican
9 May 2022 Generic congressional ballot, RCP averages 46.4-43.2 Republican, 538 averages 45.4-42.8 Republican
16 May 2022 Generic congressional ballot, RCP averages 46.8-43.3 Republican, 538 averages 45.5-43.0 Republican
23 May 2022 Generic congressional ballot, RCP averages 45.5-43.4 Republican, 538 averages 45.0-42.7 Republican

21-day difference, RCP Republicans -1.0, Democrats +0.9. 538 Republicans -0.2, Democrats -0.1.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/

We haven’t seen any significant movement on President’s overall job performance since the leak either. I doubt you will. Whatever issue becomes hot for a while probably won’t make a difference. Rising prices tops the list of most important issues, everything else is secondary including the abortion issue.

2 May 2022 Biden’s overall job performance, 41.7% approve, 53.0% disapprove
9 May 2022 Biden’s overall job performance, 42.3% approve, 52.9% disapprove
16 May 2022 Biden’s overall job performance, 41.6% approve, 53.4% disapprove
23 May 2022 Biden’s overall job performance, 41.0% approve, 54.3% disapprove

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html

21-day difference, approval -0.7, disapproval +1.4

Perhaps the best way to look at this is the number of competitive, switchable, at risk house seats between 1 May to 23 May. But keep in mind, Kansas, Missouri and Florida completed their redistricting during this time period.
1 May - 29 Democratic seats, 10 Republican seats fell into the at-risk category
23 - May 36 Democratic seats, 12 Republican seats. An increase of 7 seats for the Democrats over these past 3 weeks and an increase of 2 for the Republicans. If the Democrats hadn’t won the gerrymandering war, creating 10 more democratic leaning districts than the GOP was able to create Republican leaning districts. You might be looking at a red wave election instead of losses of 15-18 seats.

Conclusion, the leaked draft had no detrimental effect on the Republican Party’s chances of a good midterm election. That the abortion issue is baked in regardless of which side you’re on or how hot an issue it was or becomes. Inflation, rising prices, empty shelves in stores remains the number one, hottest issue in determining how one will vote this midterm. I don’t think any other issue will replace it unless we get into a hot war with Russia.

The only problem I have with these numbers, Perot, is that they are national. The bulk of the elections are based upon local demographics at the District and State level, and the majority of those numbers are locked in amber by demographics and gerrymandering. That leaves, as you have noted elsewhere, only a few swing possibilities. Now THOSE figures I would find very interesting.

It's also true that while it has been encouraged, most Democrats aren't explicitly addressing the abortion issue in speeches and rallies. They may attack the Court and its radical rulings, but not specifically the abortion issue itself, so it is hard to say what impact it will ultimately have.

I did find the turnout in early voting in Georgia interesting, though. Not sure of its impact, either, but I've seen plenty of too-early opinions floating around. My personal take is that a lot of people who would have voted by mail have switched to early voting - a trend across the country.

Here’s the numbers as of yesterday, 48 competitive, switchable, at risk districts. Currently held by 36 Democrats and 12 Republicans. Safe seats as of 20 May 2022, 164 Democratic, 195 Republican. Which simply means in 359 of the 407 districts drawn so far, the winner is already determined. It doesn’t matter whether they hold an election in those 359 districts or not. New York hasn’t completed their redistricting yet. But I would imagine NY will add 20 safe Democratic seats and 4 safe Republican seats. That would make it 383 safe districts or districts where the result of either a Republican or Democrat is elected is already known. I have just received word that New York has passed their new map, I’ll have an update on that later.

The huge turnout in Georgia didn’t surprise me. While some restrictions were placed on absentee voting, Georgia expanded early voting. Early voting began on the 2nd of May and end on 20 May. Counties are required to have at least early voting on two Saturdays Counties can also have early voting on Sunday’s if that is what they want to do. But not required nor prohibited. Georgia expanded early voting from 15 days in 2020 to a minimum of 17 for 2022 with the possibility of 19 if the county includes Sundays. Here’s the whole skinny. This voter suppression mantra was hyped beyond belief in my opinion. You can make up your own mind.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/georgia-voting-law-9-facts/

Absentee voting only became a thing during covid. It's not as though millions upon millions have been relying on it for decades. Although having said that, I'm one of the millions who have used it since the last redistricting because my voting precinct was 17 miles in the wrong direction...

Whatever rule changes come about, if you want to vote, you probably can. I'll still vote absentee, I'm a senior and I'm disabled. But if DeSantis changes the rules, my precinct is now 4 blocks away and I'll happily wheel down to the polls come November.

I'm entirely in favor of a vote-by-mail system but not everyone agrees and not every state makes it available to everyone.

Partisans turn every little thing into a mantra and hype it to death.

every. little. thing.

I think you are right. Abortions, for the most part, is something that needs doing, especially insofar as the mother in question is concerned which is exactly why they want the right. My problem with the Democratic party is that most of the time the loudest get all the attention and, unfortunately the Dems loudest is flat out for. I am not saying that's their intention but, in the end, its what's happening. I keep hammering the same old thing - the Dems REALLY need a message instead of a bunch of personal thoughts on all sides. In the end everybody knows they are for Abortions. I am not even sure Abortion is something to even be fore but I do know that there are circumstances when it really needs to be done. The three main reasons seems about right (rape, incest and life of mother) but I am equally sure that there are a lot of others as well. In the case of abortion the Republicans are actually no better off. They are busily working for the abortion extremes and are determined to punish anybody even vaguely connected. Eventually they will be passing legislation to hang anybody for an abortion no matter reasonable they are.

I can remember some very strange things about abortions. One is when a rapist sued the victim of his rape to save the results of his rape whilst also demanding complete control of the resulting child. Now THAT'S offensive!

2020 was the first time I voted by mail, absentee since I retired from active duty back in 1986. Being over 65, I didn’t even have to request a ballot. Georgia sent ballots out to everyone over 65. Now that might have been just a county thing, I don’t know. Georgia’s new law also changed my polling or voting place. Instead of 3 miles away, it’s now 1. Halfway between home and Home Depot.

I thought nothing about absentee voting while in the military. But I’m still skeptical of it. I have a close cousin who lives in Oregon, mail in state, she’s always calling me up to ask me how she should vote. In a way, it’s like I’m officially voting in Georgia and unofficially in Oregon. Another quirk, I don’t like ranked voting, but I love runoffs when no candidate receives 50% plus 1. I’m a huge fan of the jungle primary also. Place all candidates on a single ballot without the party identification with the top two advancing to the general election, runoff if you will in November if no one received 50% plus 1 vote. At least this way, the voter will have to know the candidates name they want to win or vote for instead of just going down the line checking the R and or the D. Not caring who the candidates are or what their names are.

I'm for switching everything over to mail-in voting and putting the post office in charge of it.

Re-district everything by zip code.