Capitol Hill Blue Forums Life and Moral Issues Religion and Philosophy Abortion

I can make up any number of possible futures in my head. I can imagine myself going to the market, buying a lottery ticket and becoming a millionaire.

But when you analyze the chances of that actually happening it's best perhaps to revise those fantasies to suit what is more likely to happen...

There's a far better chance I get hit by a truck on the way.

But that doesn't mean I'm gonna get hit by a truck either.

The likeliest scenario is that I'll buy the lottery ticket, scratch it off, and throw it away. A dollar poorer but entertained for a moment and there was always the chance that I might have become a millionaire.

Votes are a lot like that. If you get your hopes up for big changes, you're liable to be disappointed.

No matter who wins the elections the Union will survive, life will go on, and commerce will continue.

I don't think the consequences of Roe going away are baked in yet, since Roe has not gone away yet. Even if it does go away, it won't sink in for many women until some friend, relative, daughter, etc. dies because everybody was afraid to treat her ectopic pregnancy or miscarriage. 10 to 15% of all pregnancies end in miscarriage, so this is NOT going to be a rare event. When it starts killing lots of women, THEN they will figure out it was a stupid idea. Or when a lot of newly married women decide any pregnancy is too dangerous, and refuse to do anything that could get them pregnant.

If ROE is overturned, that just throws abortion back to the states. 21 states and D.C. have state laws protecting abortion. Nothing would change in those states as to abortion access. As suspected, most are blue states controlled by democrats. Population wise, it relatively even between the number of folks who live in protected states and non-protected states. So if ROE is overturned, it won't effect half of the population.

https://kdvr.com/news/data/which-states-legally-protect-abortion/

13 states have so called trigger laws that would go into effect if ROE is overturned. There are another 5 states or so that would extremely limit abortions. Detail below.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/03/us/state-abortion-trigger-laws-roe-v-wade-overturned/index.html

Overturning ROE if that does happen, the SCOTUS said they would have their official ruling on the Mississippi case either late June or early July. I don’t see it influencing this year’s midterms. The 13 states with trigger laws on the books are solid red states. I do see a good chance of a bunch of protests and even some riots over the SCOTUS ruling if they do overturn ROE. But those will probably mostly take place in the blue states with laws protecting abortion. It’s blue state Democrats mostly riled up about the possibility of ROE being overturned which won’t affect them.

I hesitate to make any long-term predictions on the effect of overturning ROE in the rest of the states. Outside of that we’ll probably see women who want an abortion travel to a state where abortion is legal. I think what most pro-abortion or pro-ROE democrats don’t realize is most Republican women are pro-life. That Democrats automatically assume all women are pro-choice which is totally wrong. For 2024 I’d keep an eye on the 8 or so swing states. I think who the candidates are, who is nominated by both major parties will have a greater impact on the presidential election than the abortion issue. 2024 will be decided by independents, not pro-choice democrats or pro-life republicans. Time will tell.

first, the second amendment: A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.

I watched a previous Supreme note that the current understanding of the 2nd amendment is a con job and absolutely wrong! Second, the concept of "a well regulated Militia" has absolutely nothing to do with how its viewed today by gun folk. All the rest follows the first two which, as far as I am concerned, is dead flat out wrong! That is particularly true of the first part about 'regulated'. That is being completely ignored! Basically its one of the worst decisions the Supremes has ever done and should be reversed (wishful thinking). I am not against guns, I don't have any but I'm not against them. Given the current lack of safety, however, I just might get myself one.

Now, its pretty clear how to fix the gun problem and we have lots of other nations that have done that. First makes sure that anybody who gets a gun should have a gun. The second thing is mental health. The United States actually doesn't have much of anything on mental health. Instead we let crazies go free until they hurt themselves or others and then we send them to prison, they get a little room with one meal a day for the rest of their lives. There are, however, exceptions. There is, for instance, one group that is putting together groups that can help folks who are in trouble and need a reset. This is particularly important for kids who seem to be doing much of the shooting these days. These groups actually exist and do really good work and every school should have access to that,. Then there are the guns themselves. Any guns designed to kill people should be blamed including cannons, fully automatic weapons, bazookas, etc. (as an aside. There used to be the "The Canoneers of America". They used to go out and blow up things like old barns.) There are also countries who have had a problem with mass shootings and they all, except for us, have put a stop to it. Amongst those are Canada, the UK, and Australia.

Right now I still think that the Dems should be saying, every chance they get; "If you vote Democratic your children won't be killed". I am not saying this because I love Dems but because its aabout the only way to stop the other side who are determined to get more kids killed. Oh, the school that was just attacked was one of the ones that the State of Texas made "safe". The problem was that nobody in the school seemed to follow any of the rules. Doors left open (all were supposed to be locked) was one of the main problems but there was more. If anybody has watched TV they already know about all of this.

Have you researched mass school shootings? Since we’re talking mass, say 3 or more deaths would qualify as a mass school shooting. For the record, the first mass school shooting, 3 or more deaths took place in Austin Texas in 1968, known as the UT Tower shooting where there were 18 dead and 31 injured. I’m using a mass school shooting as 3 or more deaths. I don’t think 1 or 2 qualify as a mass. 1960’s 1, there were 2 in the 1970’s, 2 in the 1980’s, 10 in the 1990’s, 7 in the 2000’s, 13 in the 2010’s and 2 so far counting Texas for the 2020’s.

A reminder, the above figures quantify a mass school shooting as 3 or more dead, I’m also counting colleges as in my mind a college is a school. Not just K-12.

Isn’t it interesting that no mass school shooting occurred prior to 1968? Mass school shootings is a recent development as is all mass shootings period. 28 total 1900-1970 with 17 of them in the Al Capone gangster era, we’ve surpassed 200 since 1970. Again, using definition of a mass shooting 3 or more deaths. Now these figures should tell everyone something. That something for me is that there was a big change in our society around 1970 and it hasn’t been for the good. Not if that change has led to mass school shootings along with mass shootings in general. I don’t have the faintest idea of what that change was, but if one were to find what it was, there’s a good chance one could correct the problem.

But first one must want to correct the problem. There’re times I don’t think anyone does.

Of course my anti-anti-abortion predictions are not for blue states. Believe it or not, I'm not a moron, and I assume neither is anybody here. What I'm predicting is that red states that have already passed those no exception laws in case Roe is overturned are going to be so hostile to women of child bearing age, they are going to change their voting patterns, move to a blue state, refuse to do anything that could get them pregnant, etc. eventually. Won't happen right away. Women have to start dying in large numbers for them to see their state is trying to kill them. Once they do figure that out, they will do something about that. Probably not by November, but perhaps by 2024.

I think historical analyses are not as useful when a million of us die, one Party attempts a coup, and then goes to war against young women and school children.

I find it interesting that it seems that the majority of mass killings have been done by teen-agers with ar-15 semi-automatic rifles. At one point these rifles are banned and the shooting seemed to go down. There are also, apparently, ways to deal with the teen-agers with problems and its being used in several places it it works! The problem is that it costs money. Texas had been building up dealing with Teens, and others, but their governor, in his infinite wisdom cut that program by millions of dollars.

One can only wonder................

Indeed. America's breadbasket will lose it's breeding stock and will be forced to allow Catholic Hispanic women, who are all pro-life, to work on the red state farms and mate with their corn fed boys since the ungrateful girl children have moved to New York City to be hookers or work the produce markets along the waterfront...or to LA to be actresses and porn stars and become lifelong Democrats.

The half-breed children will be treated like chatel and occasionally slaughtered if their numbers and feed costs get out of hand.

I love when folks make outlandish predictions. I look at them and think...what would happen if...?

If Roe falls, not much is gonna change. Medical and moral exceptions will likely be hammered out over time and abortion by mail will become a thing. Women are already pretty good at avoiding pregnancy. All of us know what causes it.

It won't be the first time women have been treated badly by politicians and won't be the last.

And for what it's worth a lot of those red-state women are already pro-life and are celebrating the upcoming SCOTUS decision. Those corn-fed girls are ready and willing to breed as needed and to run the farm. And raise lots more pro-life red-state kids!

There is a parallel between anti-abortion legislation and Second Amendment enthusiasm. Of the millions of opportunities for misadventure, only a relative few actually result in death - but when they do, the results are devastating. And like those policies, the overall result will be "thoughts and prayers" and a hell of a lot of inaction.

I think in this you are completely wrong. The protests will be in the Red States (less so in the Blue), and it is simple logic - those are the States where trigger laws will occur. Your assumption is that "Red States" are homogenous. They are not. There are bastions of Blue in virtually every State of the Union. Any State with a city over 100,000 population is more likely than not one of those bastions. Moreover, none of the States is devoid of Democratic voters. One can look at the protests that occurred over George Floyd's murder and have a pretty clear picture of the scope of what will be occurring. They won't be violent, because they will be led by women. The counterprotesters will be violent. They always are.