Last one on the leaked draft. Abortion issue, baked in or not? It’s been 28 days, 4 weeks since the leaked draft on abortion. You’ve a bit of a movement on RCP, none on 538 which leads me to believe the movement on RCP was due more to the normal ups and downs of polling, not the leaked draft on overturning ROE or the abortion issue. The fact we’ve had so little movement over this time period reinforces my theory of the abortion issue being baked in. Inflation is still the elephant in the room.

2 May 2022 Generic congressional ballot, RCP averages 46.5-42.5, Republican, 538 averages 45.2-42.8 Republican
31 May 2022 Generic congressional ballot, RCP averages 46.0-44.1 Republican, 538 averages 45.0-42.8 Republican

28-day difference, RCP Republicans -0.5, Democrats +1.6. 538 Republicans -0.2, Democrats no change.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/

On the President’s overall job performance, Biden continues to sink slowly since the leak draft on overturning ROE. Whatever issue becomes hot for a while probably won’t make much of a difference. Rising prices tops the list of most important issues, everything else is secondary including the abortion issue.

2 May 2022 Biden’s overall job performance, 41.7% approve, 53.0% disapprove
31 May 2022 Biden’s overall job performance, 40.4% approve, 54.8% disapprove

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html

28-day difference, approval -1.3, disapproval +1.8

Perhaps the best way to look at this is the number of competitive, switchable, at risk house seats between 1 May to 31 May.
1 May - 29 Democratic seats, 10 Republican seats fell into the at-risk category
31 - May 39 Democratic seats, 13 Republican seats. An increase of 10 seats for the Democrats over these past 4 weeks and an increase of 3 for the Republicans. If the Democrats hadn’t won the gerrymandering war, creating 10 more democratic leaning districts than the GOP was able to create Republican leaning districts. You might be looking at a red wave election instead of losses of 15-18 seats.

Conclusion, the leaked draft had no detrimental effect on the Republican Party’s chances of a good midterm election. That the abortion issue is baked in regardless of which side you’re on or how hot an issue it was or becomes. Inflation, rising prices, empty shelves in stores remains the number one, hottest issue in determining how one will vote this midterm. The Midterms are always a referendum on the job the White House and the party in control, in power are doing.

It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.