Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Gerrymandering

Senate and House update 19 May 2022

Senate +1-3 equals lean, but within the MOE. These states are very competitive with one party or candidate having a slight advantage. +4-6 outside the MOE, equals likely but still competitive. +7 and above, those states aren’t listed. They’re considered solid or safe for the party that currently holds them.

Senate changes – WI R Johnson from -1 to +1, GA D Warnock from -1 to +1, NC R Budd from +2 to +4

Arizona Kelly D – Kelly +2 Democratic hold R 50 D 50
Georgia Warnock D – Warnock +1 Democratic hold R 50, D 50
Nevada Cortez Masto D – Cortez Masto +2 Democratic hold R 50 D 50
New Hampshire Hassan D – Hassan +4 Democratic hold R 51 D 49
North Carolina Burr R – Burr is retiring, open seat. R Budd vs. D Beasley. Budd +4 Republican hold. R 50 D 50
Ohio – Portman R – Portman is retiring, open seat. R Vance vs, D Ryan Vance +2 Republican hold. R 50 D 50
Pennsylvania Toomey R – Toomey is retiring, open seat. R too close to call vs. D Fetterman +2 Democratic gain R 49 D 51
Wisconsin Johnson R – Johnson +1 Republican hold R 49 D 51

Missouri R Blunt, Oklahoma R Inhofe, Vermont, D Leahy are retiring, these open seats may make my watch list if they become competitive later. Pennsylvania looks like the only seat to change hands, giving the Democrats a 51-49 advantage in the senate.

House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 222 Democrats, 213 Republicans. The GOP needs a net gain of 5 seats to take control of the House. As of 19 May 2022, 48 states have completed their redistricting. 407 districts out of the 435 are completed leaving 28 remaining. New York (26) along with New Hampshire (2).

Out of the 407 newly drawn districts, there are 42 competitive, switchable, at risk districts. Currently held by 31 Democrats and 11 Republicans. Safe seats as of 19 May 2022, 169 Democratic, 196 Republican. Probable net gain using only the 48 states with their new redrawn districts, is a Republican gain of 13-16 seats. Which would give the GOP control of the house with the majority over the Democrats somewhere between 226-209 to 229-206. Keep in mind when New York and New Hampshire haven’t completed their new maps, it will change the above once they complete drawing their new maps. Had not the Democrats added 7 new Democratic leaning districts during the gerrymandering wars, their losses would have been worse. Those 7 seats came at the expense of 7 competitives districts.

I'm with you on the Senate pick up. I've just had a niggling feeling that was gonna happen. I don't think there's gonna be a clear "winner" in this election and that both parties are gonna be disappointed. I've said that before and it bears repeating. McConnell will remain the minority leader. Schumer can safely burn the filibuster to the ground and the Republican-controlled House will act like right-wing weirdos making independents roll their eyes and think "Again?...No."

All I'm lacking is that Democratic candidate...a chimera of sorts...a mystery...

But I'm also thinking the results of the midterms will be good for both parties, forcing them into some bipartisan compromise on some of the easier issues.

Trump by sticking his nose into PA races has pretty much guaranteed both Shapiro and Fetterman’s election. Mastriano will lose the independent vote probably by a lot but having Shapiro vs. Mastriano at the top of the ticket will benefit Fetterman as I think once those independents voted for Shapiro, they continue with Fetterman. You won’t see the ticket splitters as you did in 2020.

I’m still trying to get my mind around the House races. With Biden approval down around 40%, Democratic controlled congress approval at 25%, 65% of all Americans thinking this country is headed in the wrong direction along with rising prices and inflation. These types of numbers should be forecasting a red wave. A pickup of 40 or more seats. As of today, there’re only 31 currently held Democratic seats at risk. 40 is out of the question. So too is 30 as the GOP isn’t about to retain all 11 of their at-risk seats while taking 30 out of 31 from the Democrats. Even 20 is stretching it. I can see the Democrats losing 15-18 of their 31, but they also should pick up 3 or 4 of the currently Republican held seats. I’m back to the 12-15 seats I’ve been on before redistricting began. That certainly would disappoint Republicans, they’re counting on a red wave. Disappoint the Democrats, because they will lose the house.

With the president and the party in power which had the very low numbers Biden and the Democratic congress now have, here’s what happened.
Biden 2022 41% ?????? projected loss of 12-15 house seats, gain of 1 senate seat as of 19 May
Trump 2018 40% lost 44 house seats, 3 senate seats
Obama 2010 42% lost 63 house seats, 6 senate seats
G.W. Bush 2006 33% lost 33 house seats, 6 senate seats
Bill Clinton 1994 42% lost 54 house seats, 9 senate seats

Why is the question I keep asking myself? Why such minimal damage to the party in power? The only thing that make sense to me is the Trump factor. He’s still disliked among independents, so many may not be willing to vote for his hand-picked, endorsed candidates. If the above holds for the next 5 ½ months, I’d consider that a huge victory for the democrats. Especially with the very low approval and favorable numbers they have racked up. The above results certainly would turn conventional wisdom, historical norms, standards completely upside down. Only one man I can think of could accomplish that, Trump.

The candidate that would have my full support, Tammy Duckworth. She should have been VP instead of Harris. A Duckworth/Fetterman ticket for 2024 wouldn’t be bad at all. Especially if Trump were to run again or even against your present governor.

You were saying? Trump taints Pennsylvania GOP Senate primary with fresh fraud lies (CNN)

McCormick and Oz are both Trumpanzees, but not as bad as Barnette (who is beyond nutso). Fetterman is both a blue-collar guy and a Berniac. Not sure where Pennsylvania will go, but I'd give Fetterman the nod. He can recycle the GOP attack ads they used on each other.

From what I’ve been reading about PA, it doesn’t matter how pro Trump or avid Trump McCormick and Oz are. Trump endorsed Oz, so an Oz win will verify Trump’s power and hold over the Republican Party. A McCormick win would be portrayed as Trump’s hold over the GOP is weakening. Most articles are on the subject of “Is Trump facing a defeat in PA?” If McCormick can pull it out, you’ll see headlines of, “Trump loses in PA,” or something akin to that.

My thoughts on Trump and the GOP. I’d say Trump has a firm hold over around 35% of the rank and file. That’s the same percentage Trump won all those primaries with back in 2016. In a 15-candidate field or so, that was plenty. The elected Republican officials fear that 35%. Especially in primaries. Either that 35% backs you via a Trump endorsement or you begin 35% behind. The threat of being primaried out is very real. Trump has a solid hold over the largest faction of the GOP, 35%. The remaining 65% could become united against Trump, but they’re too fractionized. Way too many factions going their own separate ways. Even in 2016, this 65% couldn’t unite behind a single candidate to stop Trump. They still can’t today. Too many people, factions going their own way. So, Trump reigns king over the Republican Party, his hold remains firm. No one is willing to challenge him. Doing so probably means the end of their political career. As with most politicians, self-preservation wins out in the end. You had the 10 Republicans who voted for impeachment, but in so doing, their political careers are over.

REDISTRICTING/GERRYMANDERING as of 20 May 2022

I’m adding Florida back as completed, bringing to 48 states since I haven’t heard anything new on their lawsuits. The 2 states left are New York, and New Hampshire. 407 districts are now completed, leaving 28 districts to be redrawn. There are 42 competitive, switchable, at risk districts. Currently held by 31 Democrats and 11 Republicans. Safe seats as of 20 May 2022, 169 Democratic, 196 Republican.

The importance of safe seats is that they let you know how many seats from the competitive/at risk column and those districts yet to be redrawn a party must win to gain control of the House. As of today, the democrats need 49 more seats to reach the magic number of 218. The Republicans need 22. It remains to be seen how many safe seats each of the 2 remaining states add to each party’s safe seat column along with how many will go into the competitive/at risk column. The 2 remaining states are New York and New Hampshire.

REDISTRICTING/GERRYMANDERING as of 23 May 2022

New York became the 49th state to complete their redistricting. This leaves only New Hampshire’s 2 congressional districts remaining to be drawn. 433 out of 435 are done, in the books. There are 48 competitive, switchable, at risk districts. Currently held by 36 Democrats and 12 Republicans. Safe seats as of 23 May 2022, 186 Democratic, 199 Republican.

The importance of safe seats is that they let you know how many seats from the competitive/at risk column and those districts yet to be redrawn a party must win to gain control of the House. As of today, the democrats need 32 more seats to reach the magic number of 218. The Republicans need 19. With New Hampshire the only state left that hasn’t completed its redistricting, 2 seats.

Keep in mind these numbers are dynamic and change day to day. What you see today may be different tomorrow or next week or next month. Certainly, different come November 2022. They do, however, show you the dire situation the Democrats are currently in as to retaining control of the House. The republicans need to win only 19 of 48 at risk seats to regain control of the house while the Democrats need to win 32 of 48 to retain control.

Final REDISTRICTING/GERRYMANDERING as of 31 May 2022

Redistricting is completed as the last state, New Hampshire approved their map today. Both of New Hampshire’s seats fell into the competitive, at risk column. All 435 districts have now been redrawn. There are 54 competitive, switchable, at risk districts. Currently held by 41 Democrats and 13 Republicans. Safe seats as of 31 May 2022, 183 Democratic, 198 Republican.

As of today, the democrats need 35 more seats to reach the magic number of 218. The Republicans need 20. The math is terrible for the chances of the Democrats retaining control of the house.

LOL yeah. And I haven't even done the math. Signs and portents look just as bad as the math though.

But it ain't over 'til the fat lady sings. Six months til the midterms, That's time for the stock market to recover, fuel prices to hit $3.50, and the baby formula plant to reopen.

It's plenty of time for the war to end and for global tensions to ease. I always look for a few pleasant surprises in an election. Not enough to hold the House, but enough to disappoint Republicans. Then two years of prosperity should deliver the House back to Dems in 2024.

That's the most optimistic model I've got running and it doesn't depend on partisan outrage.

All it requires is a rapid economic recovery.

Today’s numbers will change tomorrow, next week and in a month. A month or two from now we may not recognize today’s numbers. Candidates still must be chosen, that makes a difference in some races. The economy may indeed improve. That’s the fun of keeping track of these numbers on a daily basis. Watching them change over time.

If the election were held today, the Republicans would be disappointed. They indicate a net gain of 1 senate seat for the democrats. Pennsylvania. Although the GOP would pick up 18-20 house seats. The senate is stagnate for this years election. Only 5 tossup or at-risk seats, 3 held by democrats, 2 by Republicans. The Democrats are in good shape in all 3 of theirs, meaning they have an ever so slight advantage today. Which could grow or disappear as time goes by. The Republicans, a slight advantage in Wisconsin, a disadvantage in Pennsylvania.

The thing is there’s nothing firm about the numbers for today. By August, September, they’ll begin firming up. Anything can happen and usually does.