Capitol Hill Blue Forums Life and Moral Issues Religion and Philosophy Abortion

I'm going to make my own outlandish prediction: if you thought 2018 was a pink wave, you ain't seen nothin' yet. I predict more women will run for office up and down the ballot than ever in US history. State houses are going to be flooded with women, even in the reddest States. Liz Cheney might even be reelected.

There’s nothing logical when it comes to the abortion issue. George Floyd, the riots took place in Minneapolis, Portland and Seattle. This is what the general public remember. All blue states. What’s ironic about all those protests is that they were against the police. Meanwhile, the mayor and city council who is responsible for the police, who recruit and hire, who oversee the training program, who make the rules, regulations and laws the police must follow, who oversee the police, who appoints the police chief and other high ranking police officials, who funds the police and more, they all got reelected in landslides. They succeeded in placing 100% of the blame on the police. Perhaps if the mayor and city council had done their job, George Floyd may have never happened.

This is another reason I think former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Bottoms would have been a much better choice for VP than Harris. After things cooled down, she had a major review of the Atlanta police to include hiring practices, training, all rules and regulations, funding and appointment plus a few more things. She and the city council were in the active mode. Minneapolis mayor and city council were in the passive mode trying to ensure no blame fell on them. My two cents.

I spent the formative years of my youth in that very neighborhood in South Minneapolis where Floyd was killed.
I've been following events and developments in my second home town since I left, through the news and through friends who still live there.
Sorry, you're misinformed. The mayor and city council have been up against what may be ONE of the most corrupt police unions in the country, especially in the last twenty-five years.

I give you Exhibit A, Lt. Bob Kroll, who is the tip of the spear in racially unbalanced and pointedly brutal policing.
Kroll was, until VERY recently, the head of the police union in Minneapolis.



At one point Kroll even threatened the Governor of Minnesota.

Successive mayors, city councils and police chiefs in Minneapolis have been at loggerheads with Kroll ever since he became head of the union.
There's much more to this, but I wanted to keep it brief, at least for starters.

It's not for lack of trying, trust me...the mayor, city council, police chief after police chief and the Governor have all had enormous difficulty dealing with this guy. And if you have any further questions I would be delighted to answer them.

Have you considered changing your name to "Cheerful Gregor"? Oh, I also suspect that you are wrong about Hispanic women all against abortion. I am married to one and she used to be that way but, no more. She is also one of them supporters of female rights which, I suspect, changed her mind in the end. So, again, Abortion is a lousy choice in just about every situation I can think of and that changes absolutely NOTHING! Its just one of them sh*t happens things.

Last one on the leaked draft. Abortion issue, baked in or not? It’s been 28 days, 4 weeks since the leaked draft on abortion. You’ve a bit of a movement on RCP, none on 538 which leads me to believe the movement on RCP was due more to the normal ups and downs of polling, not the leaked draft on overturning ROE or the abortion issue. The fact we’ve had so little movement over this time period reinforces my theory of the abortion issue being baked in. Inflation is still the elephant in the room.

2 May 2022 Generic congressional ballot, RCP averages 46.5-42.5, Republican, 538 averages 45.2-42.8 Republican
31 May 2022 Generic congressional ballot, RCP averages 46.0-44.1 Republican, 538 averages 45.0-42.8 Republican

28-day difference, RCP Republicans -0.5, Democrats +1.6. 538 Republicans -0.2, Democrats no change.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/

On the President’s overall job performance, Biden continues to sink slowly since the leak draft on overturning ROE. Whatever issue becomes hot for a while probably won’t make much of a difference. Rising prices tops the list of most important issues, everything else is secondary including the abortion issue.

2 May 2022 Biden’s overall job performance, 41.7% approve, 53.0% disapprove
31 May 2022 Biden’s overall job performance, 40.4% approve, 54.8% disapprove

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html

28-day difference, approval -1.3, disapproval +1.8

Perhaps the best way to look at this is the number of competitive, switchable, at risk house seats between 1 May to 31 May.
1 May - 29 Democratic seats, 10 Republican seats fell into the at-risk category
31 - May 39 Democratic seats, 13 Republican seats. An increase of 10 seats for the Democrats over these past 4 weeks and an increase of 3 for the Republicans. If the Democrats hadn’t won the gerrymandering war, creating 10 more democratic leaning districts than the GOP was able to create Republican leaning districts. You might be looking at a red wave election instead of losses of 15-18 seats.

Conclusion, the leaked draft had no detrimental effect on the Republican Party’s chances of a good midterm election. That the abortion issue is baked in regardless of which side you’re on or how hot an issue it was or becomes. Inflation, rising prices, empty shelves in stores remains the number one, hottest issue in determining how one will vote this midterm. The Midterms are always a referendum on the job the White House and the party in control, in power are doing.

That's what I said.

I think that's a fairly realistic and cheerful assessment of the situation. The predictions that call for riots and mass migration of red-state women into more liberal blue states seem a bit less likely and quite frankly, not cheerful at all.

As far as pink waves go...from the numbers it looks like it's kind of slow to form up. Women are working so hard to try to make ends meet in this economy they haven't got time to worry much about abortion.

There will certainly be protests when the SCOTUS announces its decision. But violent counter-protestors...? Not likely. Riots...? Nope. Will they storm the Supreme Court building hoping to turn over the court's decision through violence? Nope.

There is nothing the President or his wobbly Congress can do about a Supreme Court decision. But a Supreme Court that legislates major, controversial, partisan law from the bench is going to lose its credibility. And without credibility and the respect of all the American people it becomes just another arbitrary ruling body that the people have no control over.

Priests in robes making decisions based on holy scribblings rather than the Constitution.

I just wish that Biden wouldn't mention ANYTHING that has not already happened! Instead he just can't help himself and simply has to mention what, may or may not happen and, in the end, fails. He just doesn't seem to get it. He has done a lot of stuff that he should be crowing about but, I guess, those are secrets.

I’ve been satisfied with the Biden presidency. However, that doesn’t stop me from pointing out what he’s done wrong to lose the independent voter support. I don’t hold Biden responsible for inflation, that’s the luck of the draw when it comes to the economy. But independents as a whole do. 30% of independents approve Biden’s handling of inflation, 59% disapprove which is lower than how they rate Biden’s overall job performance. With the midterms approaching, with inflation, rising prices being the most important issue, problem for independents, with other issues are secondary, they think Republicans in congress are the party better suited to handle inflation by a 46-35 margin over the democrats in congress.

Even if Biden and the Democrats in congress would crow about their successes, I doubt it would do any good. Most independents aren’t worried or don’t care about them. It’s rising prices, inflation. Biden and company have lost independents and I don’t think they can regain them back in time for the midterms. Inflation has to be tamed first; prices must recede. Plenty of time between now and 2024 though.

Keep in mind Obama had a lousy 2010 midterm, lost 63 house seats, but won reelection 2 years later. Bill Clinton also had a bad 1994 midterm, lost 54 house seats. He trounced Bob Dole in 1996. Reagan had a bad midterm in 1982, he lost 26 house seats, but won by a landslide in 1984. There’s no reason Biden and the Democrats can’t have a complete recovery by 2024.

Just in from Gallup,

'Pro-Choice' Identification Rises to Near Record High in U.S.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/393104...nt=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication

The skinning, Americans who classify themselves as pro-choice has risen from 49% to 55% from May 2021 to May 2022 with most of the rise taking place after the leaked draft. Whereas Republicans and independents have remained at approximately the same percentage being pro-choice in this time frame, Democrats have shot up immensely from 70% to 88% accounting for most of the rise nationwide for pro-choice.

Note that the pro-choice and pro-life labels have no official definition. Pro-choice could range from legal only for rape, incest and the life of the mother to all the way to the moment of birth. The rise in the percentage of Americans nationwide being pro-choice occurred mostly among democrats which also explains why the leaked draft on overturning ROE had no effect or changed any planned vote for the midterms. Republicans will still vote Republican, Democrats for Democrats and independents remain leaning toward voting Republican for congress. It was baked in.

Another Gallup article/poll if you’re interested.

Steady 58% of Americans Do Not Want Roe v. Wade Overturned

https://news.gallup.com/poll/393275...nt=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication

I think the problem is the Democratic party itself. It messages are are not good, nor consistent. They just can't seem to be in sync and, I think, that throws everything off. Biden hasn't been a bad president and I will vote for him again, especially given the other side. People, I think, like consistency and that isn't what the Dems have. I just don't think that Abortion is a good cause to hammer with, for either side.