Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Gerrymandering

Still, we're just sitting on our hands and waiting for the show to begin. Some early volleys have been fired. Heschel Walker has made an effort to distance himself from Trump. Possibly to attract football fans who aren't also Trump fans. Beto O'Rourke might surge a bit in Texas after the gun violence. I still see independents trending way away from anything Trumpy and that could affect some districts where independent voters can make a difference. The primaries haven't shown us anything we didn't already know.

I just saw somewhere that Harris edged out DeSantis in some sort of straw poll. Probably something I read on my phone late at night. Biden would beat Trump again too.

That kinda thing depends on who was polled and if it was slanted...but it's encouraging that things aren't trending the other way given the sad state of Dems in the polls.

I see Schumer is pursuing a bipartisan to prevent future shootings. The NY Times says:

Gun Law Deal

That's good politics and it's good timing. SCOTUS will release the abortion abortion by the end of the month and it will suck the life out of every other issue for a while.

If the gun bill stalls(and it will) it will take another gruesome massacre to focus their chaotic little brains on dead schoolchildren again. But the attempt will at least put some fire to the toes of Republicans in a very public way. Independents might take a greater interest in protecting actual schoolchildren than in abortion rulings and anything that can sour the public on voting Republican just before the election can only be a good thing.

So, all in all, I'm pretty optimistic that I'm not gonna be too disappointed by the midterms.

The last poll in Texas was taken on 10 May, prior to the shooting. Abbott had a 46-39 lead.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/Texas.html

Will the shooting make a difference, that’s hard to say? My guess is it will short term, then revert to the numbers pre-shooting within a month. That the normal response to these things. Walker, I think is out of his league. He’s not a good speaker. It’s my understanding Warnock offered to debate Walker 3 times, but Walker turned him down. Nothing official.

I kept the Ohio senate race on my list, although most pundits think Vance will win in a runaway over Ryan. The latest poll gives Vance a 3-point lead but has an MOE of plus or minus 4.4 points. Which means that the race is basically a tie or Vance’s lead could be as much as 7.4 points or Ryan may actually be in the lead by 1.4.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/oh/ohio_senate_vance_vs_ryan-7624.html

This may interest you. To the question: How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing legislation placing additional restrictions on gun ownership

All adults 30% a top priority, 27% should not be done.
Independents only 28% top priority, 28% shouldn’t be done.
Democrats only 49% top priority, 6% shouldn’t be done
Republicans only 12% top priority, 48% shouldn’t be done

https://assets.morningconsult.com/w...2204148_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v1_SH.pdf

That poll was taken prior to the shooting in Texas, but after Buffalo. Independents are right smack dab in the middle between the two major parties. Gun control, whether one is for more restriction or for none, it isn’t an important issue to 40% plus of all Americans.

Interesting stat, 57% of Republicans either own a gun or has a gun in the house compared to just 25% of Democrats and 48% of Independents.

https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2017/06/22/the-demographics-of-gun-ownership/

And only 7% of all gun owners belong to the NRA.

And yet it is estimated that there are 120 guns per every 100 US citizens. If Mexico attacks us we won't have to depend on Europeans to send us weapons. Which is evidence that the second amendment is working as it was intended.

I was scrolling through some polls this AM as is my practice. I came across a couple that asked the question preferred 2022 outcome of the senate and preferred 2022 outcome of the house. It wasn’t the preferred outcome that struck me, it was the no preference column. 18% of all Americans have no preference in who controls the senate and 16% of the house. Then I looked at independents, 35% had no preference in the senate and 32% in who controlled the house. Democrats and Republican were at 12% and 7% no preference in which party controls the senate, Democrats and Republicans were at 9% and 7% which party controls the House.

At first, I was amazed at the high percentage of independents with no preference. But it does make sense, at least to me. Independents have no horse in this race, the Republicans and Democrats own the horses, their stakes are much higher in who wins or loses. Independents are casual spectators, they’re not political junkies. Then again, most independents aren’t paying attention to politics and won’t until an election nears. Perhaps one to two months out.

Then I took a look at the generic congressional ballot, 23% of independents are in the not sure column compared to 6% of democrats and 4% of Republicans. Back to owing the horses and the casual spectator. This is close to the historical averages this far out from an election. This means there’s a lot of independents undecided, that are reachable, that can be induced to vote for either party’s congressional candidates. But as usual, both major parties are concentrating on their base, trying to make their base happy and fired up, ignoring independents. There’s a quarter to a third of all independents out there who could be attracted to either major party with a bit of an outreach program. But that would tend to make certain factions within each party unhappy.

When you get down to brass tacks, it doesn't really matter which party is in control, commerce must continue and emergencies must be dealt with.

As long as both parties elect decent honest citizens.

It's only when charlatans ascend to power that sh*t goes off the rails.

Hahahahaha!

I have six guns (none of them "six-guns"), of which none have been fired for almost 50 years. (The pellet gun is the exception, goddammed squirrels and pigeons...). Three of them I have never fired.

I guess I won't be of much help against the Mexican hordes.

As for gerrymandering, looks like I might get a blue Representative!

Why? You gonna throw down your guns and surrender like a Frenchman? If you won't fight for your freedom hand me a gun, I will!

Just kidding...feck that. I'll learn to speak Spanish.

Si, bueno! Mas enchiladas, por favor?