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The backlash occurred down ballot in November 2020 to the Floyd riots and Defund the Police slogan. It was unfathomable to think a candidate could win the presidency by 7 plus million votes and yet, have his party lose 13 house seats, a governorship and 2 state legislatures. I’d say folks wanted Trump gone, but didn’t trust the Democrats to have full control and they voted that way.

2020 was only the second time in our entire history that a candidate won the popular vote via the presidency and lost house seats. The only other time was in 1884 when Grover Cleveland won the popular vote by a mere 58,000 and his party lost 8 house seats. 58,000 is a long way from 7 million plus.

The full results of the 2020 election, both the presidency and down ballot leads me to believe that election was the total rejection of Trump. But it wasn’t a rejection or endorsement of either major party’s agenda, ideology or philosophy. The Democrats completely misread the 2020 election, that’s why they’re in trouble today. Perhaps the overturning of ROE can mitigate some of that trouble, maybe not. We’ll see.

The landslide in the popular vote was what led millions of Republican voters to believe that something was wrong with the results.

They were arrogant and overconfident, just like their leader, and they believed they couldn't lose.

They are still arrogant and over-confident and they think a mighty red wave is going to sweep them into power this fall.

Perhaps progressives overreach at times with slogans like "defund the police" and "raise the minimum wage"! But this decision is nothing more than partisan judicial legislation.

The Supreme Court decision comes at a rather inopportune time since Dems are in control and this is a direct slap in the face to them.

But Biden really never has been much of a fan of Roe because he's a pawn of the Catholic church first and foremost....

Apparently, Trump supporters weren’t looking at any of the polls. All of them had Biden winning, I mean all of them. Some poll by more, some by less, but all had Biden winning.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

The exit polls confirmed the results, they came as close to matching the actual results as possible.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results


For Trump supporters to believe the election was stolen, means none of them paid any attention to what was happening in the general election campaign or to the polls. They must have gone into a cocoon and blocked the real world completely out. The writing was on the wall for everyone to see, if they could read that is.

Blocking the real world of politics out, going into a cocoon isn’t just done by Trump supporters. I don’t think Trump nor his supporters ever realized how much Trump was disliked outside of Republican circles or should I say the Republican cocoon. That also was written on the wall for all to see from the first day Trump’s presidency to his last to even to today.

Oh, they paid attention alright. And they refused to believe any of it.

We've discussed here before that the Republican voting base seems to operate in a different reality.

We were in the throes of the pandemic, there was no normal campaign, tension was running high, QAnon conspiracies flying, Donald Trump lying...it was an ugly time.

Then Biden won in a popular vote landslide. And they simply refused to believe it.

It had to be rigged...

Turns out it wasn't rigged.

Not exactly what I expected to see a week after Roe had been overturned. Very little movement in the generic congressional ballot outside of the Democrats adding a couple of tenths of a single point. Biden’s overall job approval continued to drop. But in the at risk, switchable, competitive house seats, the Republicans added one while the Democrats remained the same. With all the outrage the pro-choice group has demonstrated, I expected more of a shift toward the democrats. Perhaps the polls haven’t caught up with that outrage yet. I’ll run this for another 3 weeks in case the polls haven’t caught up yet to public opinion which is possible. Another possibility, abortion over the last 50 years has been baked into the equation with avid pro-choicers becoming Democrats, avid pro-lifers becoming Republicans with independents pretty much indifferent to the abortion issue.

23 June 2022 Generic congressional ballot, RCP averages 44.3-41.5, Republican, 538 averages 44.8-42.5 Republican

29 June 2022 Generic congressional ballot, RCP averages 44.8-42.3, Republican, 538 averages 44.8-42.7 Republican


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/

The President’s overall job performance numbers.

23 June 2022 Biden’s overall job performance, 39.6% approve, 55.8% disapprove

29 June 2022 Biden’s overall job performance, 38.0% approve, 57.5% disapprove

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html

Most important to the midterms is the number of competitive, switchable, at risk house seats and the senate’s pure tossup states beginning 23 June 2022 to see the effect of the overturning of ROE.

23 June – House 40 Democratic seats, 13 Republican seats fell into the at-risk category. A probable gain of 18-20 seats for the Republicans. Senate – 4 pure tossups, 3 democratic held seats, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, 1 Republican held seats, Wisconsin. 2 lean Democratic seats, Democratic held New Hampshire and Republican held Pennsylvania, 1 lean Republican seat, Republican held North Carolina. Probable net gain of 1 seat for the Democrats, Pennsylvania.

29 June – House 40 Democratic seats, 14 Republican seats fell into the at-risk category. A probable gain of 18-20 seats for the Republicans. Senate – 4 pure tossups, 3 democratic held seats, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, 1 Republican held seats, Wisconsin. 2 lean Democratic seats, Democratic held New Hampshire and Republican held Pennsylvania, 1 lean Republican seat, Republican held North Carolina. Probable net gain of 1 seat for the Democrats, Pennsylvania.

Weekly change Republican at risk house seats up one from 13 to 14. Bottom line, no red wave and no chance of the Democrats retaining the house. But the senate looks like a very real retention possibility.

No, you didn't. You've said it was baked in from the first and you're right. So even though it doesn't show up in the polls a few more Dems will show up to vote. A few independents will vote for human rights over the economy, maybe a few Republican women will switch their vote in protest.

No matter who votes how though, the Supreme Court decision will stand and the Supreme Court will remain solidly conservative. Pro-life factions will need to build their case from the bottom up again.

Very true for the leaked draft. I didn’t expect the SCOTUS to overturn ROE, I expected them to rule on the Mississippi case which should have been their limit. The official ruling caught me by surprise. Maybe it shouldn’t have, but it did. I did expect some movement towards the Democrats after the official ruling though, then in a couple of months for the polls to revert to where they were pre-SCOTUS ruling. Am I wrong in classifying the leaked draft and my deductions on that to having a bit of a different view on the official ruling? But baked in, yes. I should have clarified myself a bit more. But you’re correct, baked in it is or so it seems up to this point.

It's interesting I find 55-60% of all Americans opposing the SCOTUS ruling but who’ll they’ll vote for remaining basically the same. I call this soft support on opposing the SCOTUS ruling. The hard-core opposition comes from Democrats which are going to vote Democratic anyway. The hard core in favor of the ruling comes from Republicans who are going to vote Republican no matter what.

Independents are divided as usual, according to YouGov, 37% strongly oppose the ruling, 31% strongly in favor. The rest are in the somewhat for or against or not sure, don’t care, no opinion. The wishy washy categories.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/uhxw71f4tf/econTabReport.pdf

Since independents are leaning toward voting Republican this midterm, I think a lot of their opposition to the ruling is soft support. In other words, they’re saying I’d rather abortion be legal, but it doesn’t make my list of top 5 issues in which I weigh to determine my vote. Make sense? Inflation, the economy in general is still the most important issue for independents in deciding who’ll they vote for.

A long-winded reply in which I’m stating you’re correct. But I looked at the draft and actual ruling as two separate events. A caveat probably irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.

I'll give you credit on the leak vs the decision...I didn't differentiate between them and lumped them into the same ball of wax.

I originally questioned whether they'd follow through, but as time went on and there was no clarification of the leaked draft or denial that the decision was coming, I figured it was a done deal.

No riots. No violence. No changes in the polls. Just stoic acceptance mostly.

If women are withholding sex to protest, birthrates will show that in about nine months. But even that won't sway the court to reconsider.

However you look at it though, this will work to the advantage of Democrats just as will the J6 affair. Some tight race somewhere might be decided on the basis of these things. That's all that I think we can statistically hope for in the near term.

Bigger picture though...younger voters are once again nudged toward the liberal side of life. These things might not change existing voting patterns much but they will influence future voting patterns which are already leaning more liberal and more independent.

I agree the young are more liberal, once they age and take voting seriously, that will show up at sometime in the future. Both major parties also adjust. They must do so to stay competitive. In our two-party system, one party always must be an alternative to the other. Get mad at the party in power, your only option is the party out of power.

I think Trump is stopping the Republicans from having their red wave with probably a bit of a push from the J6 hearings. Going by the very low approval numbers of Biden and the Democrats in congress, the Republicans should be wiping the floor with Democratic fodder. Even with Biden’s approval rating at 39%, the democrats are looking at a 18-20 house seat lost and amazingly the real possibility of gaining a senate seat. The average house loss for a president whose approval is around 40% is 48 seats with 6 seats lost in the senate.

If Trump is the reason for limiting the damage of a president below 40% overall approval with the Democratic congress approval at a low 32%, I’d want to keep him around for 2024. The economy is bound to improve by then which may be enough, but to be safe, keep Trump around. He’s the best thing the Democrats have going for them, at least today. Many independents are hesitant in voting for a Trump backed candidate or a party’s candidate lead by Trump although they’re very dissatisfied and unhappy with Biden and the Democrats in congress. A prime example of the Trump factor is here in Georgia where Kemp is tied with Abrams at 48-48. Kemp being on Trump's s*** list. But Warnock leads Walker 54-44, Walker being Trump endorsed, a Trumper.

It is the day when Americans VOTE in elections and elections get overturned (successfully) because one party simply does not like the results, and they get away with it.