Capitol Hill Blue Forums Life and Moral Issues Religion and Philosophy Abortion

The interesting thing now, is the lawsuits that will surge in states with "no exception" abortion laws. Republicans in those states have overreached. When a lawsuit reaches a state Supreme Court, dollars to donuts they say there must be exceptions. There is also a federal civil rights aspect to forcing a woman to continue a pregnancy that will kill her. Rape, incest, and life of the mother have been the standards for many decades.

That’s an interesting point. Overreach is something both parties are good at attempting. But on this, I don’t think the overturning of ROE will affect this year’s midterms much. It may in a couple of senate races, helping the Democrats maintain control there. But it won’t prevent the loss of the House. We have inflation, rising prices which many people, especially independents place ahead of abortion, Trump, everything else, all other issues this year. But give it two additional years, give it time to sink in, to live with the results of the SCOTUS decision along with what you stated, abortion will be big in 2024 especially if inflation eases and we have a more normal economy. 2024 could have the makings of a big Democratic year, if they don’t screw it up.

2 weeks has passed, as I expected, there’s been a slight change in both generic congressional ballots since the SCOTUS overturned ROE. RCP averages saw the GOP lead of 2.5 points cut to 1.3 points. 538 saw the GOP lead of 2.3 points cut to 1.6 points. Keep in mind, both generic congressional ballots are nationwide, not district by district. Regardless, this must be good news for the Democrats.

23 June 2022 Generic congressional ballot, RCP averages 44.3-41.5, Republican, 538 averages 44.8-42.5 Republican

7 July 2022 Generic congressional ballot, RCP averages 45.1-43.8, Republican, 538 averages 44.8-43.2 Republican


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/

The President’s overall job performance numbers. This is bad news for the Democrats. Biden’s approval falls, his disapproval rises.

23 June 2022 Biden’s overall job performance, 39.6% approve, 55.8% disapprove

7 July 2022 Biden’s overall job performance, 38.4% approve, 56.8% disapprove

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html

Most important to the midterms is the number of competitive, switchable, at risk house seats and the senate’s pure tossup states beginning 23 June 2022 to see the overall affect district by district and state by state of the overturning of ROE.

23 June – House 40 Democratic seats, 13 Republican seats fell into the at-risk category. A probable gain of 18-20 seats for the Republicans. Senate – 4 pure tossups, 3 democratic held seats, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, 1 Republican held seats, Wisconsin. 2 lean Democratic seats, Democratic held New Hampshire and Republican held Pennsylvania, 1 lean Republican seat, Republican held North Carolina. Probable net gain of 1 seat for the Democrats, Pennsylvania.

7 July – House 40 Democratic seats, 14 Republican seats fell into the at-risk category. A probable gain of 18-20 seats for the Republicans is unchanged. Senate – 3 pure tossups, 2 democratic held seats, Nevada, Arizona, 1 Republican held seats, Wisconsin. 3 lean Democratic seats, Democratic held New Hampshire and Georgia along with Republican held Pennsylvania, 1 lean Republican seat, Republican held North Carolina. Probable net gain of 1 seat for the Democrats, Pennsylvania.

Change Republican at risk house seats up one from 13 to 14, although this doesn’t change the projected Republican gain of 18-20 house seats. Good news senate wise for the Democrats in Georgia as Democrat Warnock seat is no longer in the tossup column but moved into the lean Democratic column. Bottom line, no red wave and still no chance of the Democrats retaining the house. But the senate looks like the Democrats may retain control of it. Keep in mind that lean means these are considered competitive/switchable/at risk seats, but one party has the advantage over the other party.

Since the overturning of ROE by the SCOTUS, the Democrats have knocked off close to a point on the national generic congressional ballot. The Republican still lead 3 weeks after the overturning. But the GOP has recovered some of their lost ground from a week ago, 7 July, but not all.

RCP’s Generic congressional ballot - 23 June 2022 44.3-41.5 Republicans +2.8. 7 July 2022 45.1-43.8 Republicans +1.3. 14 July 2022 46.0-44.1 Republicans +1.9

538 Generic congressional ballot – 23 June 2022 44.8-42,5 Republican +2.3. 7 July 2022 44.8-43.2 Republican +1.6. 14 July 2022 44.7-42.8 Republican +1.9

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/

The President’s overall job performance numbers. No significant ups or downs since the overturning of ROE.

23 June 2022 Biden’s overall job performance, 39.6% approve, 55.8% disapprove. 7 July 2022 38.4% approve, 56.8% disapprove. 14 July 2022 38.5% approve, 56.0% Disapprove

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html

Most important to the midterms is the number of competitive, switchable, at risk house seats and the senate’s pure tossup states beginning 23 June 2022 to see the overall affect district by district and state by state of the overturning of ROE.

23 June – House 40 Democratic seats, 13 Republican seats fell into the at-risk category. A probable gain of 18-20 seats for the Republicans. Senate – 4 pure tossups, 3 democratic held seats, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, 1 Republican held seats, Wisconsin. 2 lean Democratic seats, Democratic held New Hampshire and Republican held Pennsylvania, 1 lean Republican seat, Republican held North Carolina. Probable net gain of 1 seat for the Democrats, Pennsylvania.

14 July – House 40 Democratic seats, 14 Republican seats fell into the at-risk category. A probable gain of 18-20 seats for the Republicans is unchanged. Senate – 3 pure tossups, 2 democratic held seats, Nevada, Arizona, 1 Republican held seats, Wisconsin. 3 lean Democratic seats, Democratic held New Hampshire and Georgia along with Republican held Pennsylvania, 1 lean Republican seat, Republican held North Carolina. Probable net gain of 1 seat for the Democrats, Pennsylvania.

Again, no significant change from 23 June.

via Kansas City Star

Kansas voters have spoke loudly Tuesday by voting “No” on a ballot measure that would have removed language in the state constitution protecting abortion rights.

In Tuesday’s elections, Kansans went to the polls to decide whether to protect the state’s existing constitutional right to an abortion.

Guess abortion and protecting a woman's right to have a say over her own body really is on the minds of Americans - contrary to what we're being told.

Well, the polls all say about 70% of Americans want abortion to remain accessible. I think this is going to happen in state after state: Any time abortion access comes up to a vote, it's going to win. Instead of ending abortion nationwide, as some want, the Republican agenda will be thwarted. It's kind of sad for them. They destroyed their Party just so they can capture the judiciary, thinking that would be a long term win. But the Supreme Court can't overcome the ballot box.

Of course it will take a while, and have some setbacks along the way. But in the long run, they will lose. Alienating so many non-White, non-male, non-straight groups is a losing strategy. That "Big Tent" is getting smaller every day. And it doesn't help that half the people dying in the US from Covid are unvaccinated now, and the anti-vax position has been strongly taken up by political conservatives.

If anti-choice can't win in Kansas...

There is only so long any political party can buck public sentiment, but I don't think it will impact midterms as much as Dems would like and the GOP fears. Senate races, yes, but Districts and local elections are defined by more prosaic concerns and gerrymandering will out.

Pro-choice sentiments prevail in general and large populations, but there are pockets of zealots all around the country, and many of them are Congressional Districts.

I hate to disagree as I agree with the argument.

Republican state legislatures will not allow referendums on abortion to be conducted. They know it is a losing proposition. As long as THEY HAVE THE POWER (and it is all about power and control) abortions will be banned in those states.

I've mentioned the guy in my vanpool from Kansas before. He was surprised that the measure didn't pass - he said there are a lot Catholics in Kansas.

My wife tells me that the Catholics spent a million dollars on that one (and lost). its strange, when I grew up I went to Catholic schools and they said that abortion was ok for rape, incest and danger to the mother. I guess that's out the window. The Catholics are a bit like a political party unable to win. they have run out of priests. In Europe many of their huge churches have been taken over by cities due to lack of enough religious to maintain them and they continue to not allow female or married priests (unless they turn Catholic and have a family). Oh, I also understand that they have allowed priests that played bad with children back into the fold because they are out of priests and need them. We also have a supreme court in which the majority are Catholic.

Praise be!