Not exactly what I expected to see a week after Roe had been overturned. Very little movement in the generic congressional ballot outside of the Democrats adding a couple of tenths of a single point. Biden’s overall job approval continued to drop. But in the at risk, switchable, competitive house seats, the Republicans added one while the Democrats remained the same. With all the outrage the pro-choice group has demonstrated, I expected more of a shift toward the democrats. Perhaps the polls haven’t caught up with that outrage yet. I’ll run this for another 3 weeks in case the polls haven’t caught up yet to public opinion which is possible. Another possibility, abortion over the last 50 years has been baked into the equation with avid pro-choicers becoming Democrats, avid pro-lifers becoming Republicans with independents pretty much indifferent to the abortion issue.

23 June 2022 Generic congressional ballot, RCP averages 44.3-41.5, Republican, 538 averages 44.8-42.5 Republican

29 June 2022 Generic congressional ballot, RCP averages 44.8-42.3, Republican, 538 averages 44.8-42.7 Republican


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/

The President’s overall job performance numbers.

23 June 2022 Biden’s overall job performance, 39.6% approve, 55.8% disapprove

29 June 2022 Biden’s overall job performance, 38.0% approve, 57.5% disapprove

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html

Most important to the midterms is the number of competitive, switchable, at risk house seats and the senate’s pure tossup states beginning 23 June 2022 to see the effect of the overturning of ROE.

23 June – House 40 Democratic seats, 13 Republican seats fell into the at-risk category. A probable gain of 18-20 seats for the Republicans. Senate – 4 pure tossups, 3 democratic held seats, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, 1 Republican held seats, Wisconsin. 2 lean Democratic seats, Democratic held New Hampshire and Republican held Pennsylvania, 1 lean Republican seat, Republican held North Carolina. Probable net gain of 1 seat for the Democrats, Pennsylvania.

29 June – House 40 Democratic seats, 14 Republican seats fell into the at-risk category. A probable gain of 18-20 seats for the Republicans. Senate – 4 pure tossups, 3 democratic held seats, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, 1 Republican held seats, Wisconsin. 2 lean Democratic seats, Democratic held New Hampshire and Republican held Pennsylvania, 1 lean Republican seat, Republican held North Carolina. Probable net gain of 1 seat for the Democrats, Pennsylvania.

Weekly change Republican at risk house seats up one from 13 to 14. Bottom line, no red wave and no chance of the Democrats retaining the house. But the senate looks like a very real retention possibility.

It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.