Very true for the leaked draft. I didn’t expect the SCOTUS to overturn ROE, I expected them to rule on the Mississippi case which should have been their limit. The official ruling caught me by surprise. Maybe it shouldn’t have, but it did. I did expect some movement towards the Democrats after the official ruling though, then in a couple of months for the polls to revert to where they were pre-SCOTUS ruling. Am I wrong in classifying the leaked draft and my deductions on that to having a bit of a different view on the official ruling? But baked in, yes. I should have clarified myself a bit more. But you’re correct, baked in it is or so it seems up to this point.
It's interesting I find 55-60% of all Americans opposing the SCOTUS ruling but who’ll they’ll vote for remaining basically the same. I call this soft support on opposing the SCOTUS ruling. The hard-core opposition comes from Democrats which are going to vote Democratic anyway. The hard core in favor of the ruling comes from Republicans who are going to vote Republican no matter what.
Independents are divided as usual, according to YouGov, 37% strongly oppose the ruling, 31% strongly in favor. The rest are in the somewhat for or against or not sure, don’t care, no opinion. The wishy washy categories.
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/uhxw71f4tf/econTabReport.pdfSince independents are leaning toward voting Republican this midterm, I think a lot of their opposition to the ruling is soft support. In other words, they’re saying I’d rather abortion be legal, but it doesn’t make my list of top 5 issues in which I weigh to determine my vote. Make sense? Inflation, the economy in general is still the most important issue for independents in deciding who’ll they vote for.
A long-winded reply in which I’m stating you’re correct. But I looked at the draft and actual ruling as two separate events. A caveat probably irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.
