Capitol Hill Blue Forums Hot Topics & Breaking News The RoundTable Round Table Summer 2022

Yes, at least from January until today, not much has changed. The Republicans seemed almost certain to retake the House in January and the same holds true today. The change has been from 8-10 seat GOP gain in January to 18-20 seats today. But with a president who has an extra-low approval of 39%, that loss would be less than half of what history tells us to expect. 48.5 is the average house seat loss with a president whose approval is around 40%. That to me spells victory for the democrats. Perhaps only a moral victory, but it could and still can be much worse.

The senate has always been 50-50 as to who controls it. Which historical average is a loss of 6 seats for a president with his overall approval around 40%. Today actually looks a bit better for the senate than in January. PA should be a gain for the Democrats, WI is 50-50 for another possible gain. Georgia looks today as remaining in democratic hands as does Nevada and Arizona. A 51-49 edge for the Dems looks like the likely outcome today. A far cry for a 6-seat loss. Of course, plenty of time for all of this to change. We don’t know Johnson’s nor Kelly’s opponent. Laxaut in Nevada won’t be easy for Cortez-Masto to beat. Nevada may rest on the Hispanic vote which the Republican Party has made inroads on.

The limiting factor in my opinion has been Trump. Many independents who would be on the GOP bandwagon today are very hesitant to vote for Trump backed/endorsed candidates. My big question is, if Trump is charged and placed on trial will that hesitancy abate as indies figure Trump is no longer a factor or will independents be so turned off by Trump, they begin moving toward the Dems? Who knows?

Ohio: Where ten year old rape victims are denied a right to an abortion and unarmed black men are shot ninety times by law enforcement.

Yay! Let’s hear it for red states!

The Governor of California is running a commercial on Florida TV inviting residents to move to California because of all of DeSantis' bad policies.

Have you seen our taxes though...? Low taxes can make up for a lot of bad policies.

Services are pretty good too. But he's not looking for people who care about low taxes and good service.

California is losing population, Florida is gaining people.

https://account.sacbee.com/paywall/subscriber-only?resume=260980852&intcid=ab_archive

https://nypost.com/2022/03/28/new-census-data-shows-population-is-booming-in-florida/

Perhaps Newsom should review his own policies to see if they're the cause of folks leaving California.Newsom needs to come to Georgia and convince all those Northeasterners who came down here over the last 20 years to move to California.

Or perhaps Rwingers are sick and of having their racism and bigotry called out, they're moving to be with like minded people.

Per Roger Stone and Alex Jones, Trump was supposed to announce his 2024 run for POTUS today. It didn't happen. I wonder if Liz Cheney has scared the bejesus out of Trump by throwing the criminal indictment term around.

I assume the only people who will respond to his ads are the well-educated. I don't think Jed and all his clan are going to throw Granny on top of the truck and head for Beverly Hills.

Desperate.
Does anyone bleating the latest Fox News Cali-bashing know HOW MANY people are leaving California the last couple of years?
I do. I know how many.
It was about 275,000 people leaving California last year, up from about 180,000 in the year before the pandemic.
Two hundred and seventy five thousand out of forty million.

Wow, talk about "inflation"...talk about "The Mouse That Roared"....275 thousand will barely be noticed this morning at rush hour, plus let's not forget that California will likely receive an influx of new arrivals, as we always do.
Plus, let's not also forget that there are two cities which are perennially famous for inflows and exodii, New York City and Los Angeles.
They've always played host to such pendulum swings in population because those two cities are where people think they have to go in order "to make it big", out of which a tiny percentage actually DO "make it".
The rest give it a shot for a couple of years and when they wash out, back home they go.
Or...as sometimes happens, they decide to stay anyway and go homeless because after all, the weather ain't so bad.

It's why Sinatra wrote his famous song "New York, New York" and it's why countless pop stars have written HUNDREDS of songs about "broken dreams" in L.A. The backdrop of the broken dreams trope is the foundation of countless novels and movie scripts.
It is hard baked into the American culture.

So bash all you like, bash L.A. and NYC until you get it out of your system.
We're still looking at clogged freeways and long lines out here so there must be a reason why so many are still here.
And yes, rest assured that summer is guaranteed to bring at least one more dystopian sci-fi or horror movie about the hellscape that visits Southern California.
That too is hard baked into the culture and has been for decades.
The paradox of L.A. as both dystopia and utopia is as permanent as the Hollywood Sign.

The fact is California lost a Representative, an electoral vote as did New York state. Texas gained 2 and Florida 1. Numbers that can’t be disputed no matter how much you want to twist them.

https://calmatters.org/politics/2021/04/california-congress-census/

Most likely California will lose some more after 2030 census.